Cubs Projections
Your 2010 Cubs: What To Expect
Hello, everyone! I'm Lizzy: Native Virginian, devoted Cubs fan, and author of a blog called The Fair Base Ballist. I was supposed to make a guest post here when Rob G. was on vacation, but technical difficulties prevented my doing so. I spent a good chunk of time hammering out individual player projections for 2010, and Rob has been kind enough to let me go ahead and post them. I hope you'll enjoy, and please contribute your own ideas to mine (especially for the mystery bench player who is likely to be announced 5 minutes after I publish this. I have omitted the 4 candidates for brevity's sake.)
Without further fanfare, your 2010 Chicago Cubs previews. They are all 100% serious.
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Cubs' CAIRO Projections
The latest projections use the Diamon Mind simulator and run 100 seasons using CAIRO projections (which I never heard of until today, but apparently have been the most accurate of the projection systems of late).
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Cubs' PECOTA Projections
Here are the weighted means from BP's PECOTA projection system in a few categories for the Cubs. PECOTA does try to project playing time, so cumulative stats like VORP and WARP are based off of that.
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2010 CHONE Projections for Cubs
Fangraphs has added the CHONE projections on their player pages along with the Bill James projections. The Hardball Times comes out with theirs in their pre-season annual and of course Baseball Prospectus and PECOTA should be out shortly. But I promised updates when I put up the Bill James projections, so here are the wOBA CHONE projections (league average is generally around the .330 mark, give or take a few points).
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Bill James 2010 Projections for Cubs
Fangraphs is once again going to list the projections on their player pages from a variety of sources, Bill James, CHONE, Marcel....maybe more. Bill James projections are up first and here's how the Cubs ranked by wOBA and their 2009 wOBA (explanation of wOBA here). I'll try and expand when new projections are released. Age is their 2010 playing age. You can click on their names to get their full slash line predictions and more.
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Cubs Win Another Simulated NL Central Division
Baseball Prospectus had the Cubs running away with the NL Central a few weeks back. CHONE projections1 thinks it will be a tight race with the St. Louis Cardinals. They have the Cubs at 88 wins, just five ahead of the Cardinals, six ahead of the Reds and seven ahead of the Brewers.
Cubs Win All Important Simulated 2009 NL Central Crown
Baseball Prospectus updated their team depth chart with new PECOTA information and the Cubs are hands down the class of the simulated National League Central. The Cubs come out with 96 wins and an easy division crown with the Brewers being their closest competition at 83 wins. That's also the best record in the NL and second best in the league behind the 98 imaginary wins that Boston has under their belt.
Recent comments
Sonicwind75 (view)
Seems like Jed was trying to corner the market on mediocre infielders with last names starting with "M" in acquiring Madrigal, Mastroboney and Zach McKinstry.
At least he hasn't given any of them a Bote-esque extension.
Childersb3 (view)
AZ Phil:
Rookie ball (ACL) starts on May 4th. Do yo think Ramon and Rosario (maybe Delgado) stay in Mesa for the month of May, then go to MB if all goes "solid"?
crunch (view)
masterboney is a luxury on a team that has multiple, capable options for 2nd, SS, and 3rd without him around. i don't hate the guy, but if madrigal is sticking around then masterboney is expendable.
TarzanJoeWallis (view)
I THINK I agree with that decision. They committed to Wicks as a starter and, while he hasn’t been stellar I don’t think he’s been bad enough to undo that commitment.
That said, Wesneski’s performance last night dictates he be the next righty up.
Quite the dilemma. They have many good options, particularly in relief, but not many great ones. And complicating the situation is that the pitchers being paid the most are by and large performing the worst - or in Taillon’s case, at least to this point, not at all.
Childersb3 (view)
Wesneski and Mastrobuoni to Iowa
Taillon and Wisdom up
Wesneski can't pitch for a couple of days after the 4 IP from last night. But Jed picked Wicks over Wesneski.
crunch (view)
booooooooooo
also, wisdom and taillon are both in chicago.
TarzanJoeWallis (view)
Tonight’s game postponed. Split games on Saturday.
crunch (view)
cubs getting crazy good at not having player moves leak.
taillon we 100% know is pitching tonight. who he's replacing and any additional moves are unknown as far as i can tell.
p.wisdom was not in today's lineup in iowa (rained out) and he was removed from the game last night mid-game, but not for injury. good bet he's with the team in the bigs, too.
Bill (view)
A good rule of thumb is that if you trade a near-ready high ceiling prospect, you should get at least two far-away high ceiling prospects in return. Like all rules-of-thumb, it depends upon the specific circumstances, but certainly, we weren't going to get Busch for either prospect alone.
Sonicwind75 (view)
Right on schedule, just read an article in Baseball America entitled "10 MLB Prospects Outside The Top 100 Who Have Our Attention". Zyhir Hope was one of the prospects featured. It stated that he's "one of the biggest arrow-up sleeper prospects in the lower levels right now."
Not sharing to be negative about the trade, getting a top 100 prospect who is MLB ready should carry a heavy prospect cost. But man, Dodger sure are good at identifying and developing young talent. Andrew Friedman seems to have successfully merged Ray's development with Yankees financial might to create a juggernaut of an organization.