TCR Friday Notes

crunch 10/02/2023 - 10:13 pm (view)

supposedly going to play in the dominican winter league.

Dolorous Jon Lester 10/02/2023 - 10:15 pm (view)

I hope Canario isn’t hurt again…

Arizona Phil 10/02/2023 - 10:46 pm (view)

Some things to keep in mind about post-season 40-man roster "clean-up"...  

If a player is outrighted to the minors and he is not signed for the next year, his salary MUST (by rule) be at least 80% of what he actually was paid the previous season. So (for example), Ethan Roberts made the MLB minimum salary ($720K) in 2023 because he was on the MLB 60-day IL for the entire season, so the very least he can be paid in 2024 - ON A MINOR LEAGUE SPLIT SALARY - is about $575K, when the minor league split salary for a player like Roberts would normally be around $125K.

So the Cubs will almost certainly non-tender Roberts (which also gets him off the 40) rather than try to pass him through waivers  and outright him, and then they will offer him a minor league contract with a salary more in line with the normal minor league split (about $125K), plus an NRI to MLB Spring Training. 

Same goes for Codi Heuer and Brandon Hughes (if the Cubs want to drop them from the 40). It would be stupid to try and outright them, because even if the Cubs can do it, they would have to pay them too much in salary in 2024.  

Besides being able to re-sign the player for considerably less money, the other advantage of a non-tender is that the player does not have to be placed on waivers and so there is no risk in the player getting claimed by another club. 

The problem with a non-tender is that there is only one MLB Contract Tender Day (its the Friday prior to Thanksgiving), and so that's the only day when a player can be non-tendered. Also, the  player doesn't have to re-sign after being non-tendered, He is an unrestricted free-agent and can sign with another club. So if the club really doesn't want to lose the player off waivers but also doesn't want to pay him 80% of what he was paid the previous season and also doesn't want him to occupy a slot on the 40 in the off-season, a non-tender is the way to go, even if the player decides to sign elsewhere. Often times a club will negotiate a  minort league contract with the player in advance of the non-tender.  

A non-tender threat is also sometimes used to avoid the possibility of going to arbitration with a player who is "on the bubble" (40-man roster-wise) for the next season. This could apply to arbitration-eligibles Nick Burdi, Mark Leiter Jr, Nick Madrigal, Julian Merryweather, Mike Tauchman, and/or Patrick Wisdom. (Codi Heuer is also arbitration-eligible but because he is injured there is no way he will remain on the 40, and Adbert Alzolay and Justin Steele -- who will be a "super two" -- are also arbitration-eligible, but they are locks to be tendered). 

In this case the Cubs would make it clear to the player that they have no interest in possibly losing an arbitration hearing, so the club offers the player an MLB contract for the next season with a salary satisfactory to the Cubs, and if the player declines, he just gets non-tendered.   

So, the non-tender candidates are Roberts, Heuer, and Hughes  (virtual locks), but with the player very likely re-signed to a 2024 minor league contract with an NRI to MLB Spring Training, plus possibly arbitration-eligibles Burdi, Leiter, Madrigal, Merryweather, Tauchman, and Wisdom. Or any one of them could get traded (although trades involving players on MLB 40-man rosters are prohibited until after the conclusion of the World Series), but otherwise the player could just be non-tendered. (Of those six, I would say Merryweather is the one most-likely to be retained on the 40 no matter what). 

There are two other players (Michael Rucker and Jared Young) who could get outrighted (if not claimed off waivers), but if they are outrighted they can elect free-agency (and probably would). 

Then there are the guys who can be outrighted and can't elect free-agency if they are outrighted, but because the are MLB Rule 9 eligible if on a minor league roster they cannot be outrighted after 5 PM Eastern on the 5th day after the final game of the World Series (when minor league players are declared free-agents) or else until the player has signed a contract for next season.

These players are Miguel Amaya, Javier Assad, Alexander Canario, Jose Cuas, Jeremiah Estrada, Brandon Hughes, Miles Mastrobuoni, Christopher Morel, and Keegan Thompson. Obviously Amaya, Canario, Assad, and Morel (and probably Cuas) are safe, but if the Cubs want to drop any of the other players from the 40 (especially Estrada and Thompson) and they don't do it by outright assignment prior to the deadline after the World Series, a non-tender is the last chance to do it before Spring Training, since players in this position are usually advised by their agents to not sign their contract until they report to Spring Training.  

So there are very few players on the 40 who can be sent outright to the minors after MLB Contract Tender Day.  

One unusual problem the Cubs have this year is that the two minor leaguers most likely to be added to the 40 prior to the Rule 5 Draft (OF Yonathan Perlaza and SS Luis Vazquez) are eligible to be minor league free-agents on the 5th day after the World Series, so the Cubs will need to open up roster slots for Perlaza and Vazquez much sooner than usual. 

Once the six free agents have been removed from the 40 and the six players on the MLB 60-day IL have been reinstated, the 40-man roster will be full. So two slots will have to be opened by other means (not by free agents leaving and not by non-tender).  

I would say the most-likely moves to open up the two slots on the 40 needed for Perlaza and Vazquez will be by placing Rucker and Young on waivers, and if they are not claimed they will be outrighted, and once outrighted they will probably elect free-agency (unless the player signs a 2024 minor league successor contract). 

The other possibility is Jeremiah Estrada could get dropped from th 40, and while (unlike Rucker and Hughes) he cannot elect free-agency, if he does make it through waivers and gets outrighted, he would be declared a Rule 9 minor league 6YFA on the 5th day after the final game of the World Series. Again, the Cubs could offer him a 2024 minor league successor contract if he isn't claimed off waivers, but Estrada would not have to sign it. 

Dolorous Jon Lester 10/02/2023 - 10:08 pm (view)

I was looking at the 40 man for the upcoming winter and there’s a stunning amount of players who I could conceivably see getting dropped, not even including the definite free agents.

Burdi, Estrada, Heuer, Kilian, Roberts, Rucker, Stro opt out, Thompson, Young, Madrigal, Mastrobuoni, Wisdom, Tauchman

azbobbop 10/02/2023 - 10:27 am (view)

Mastrobuoni can be a classic utility man. Left hand bat adds to his value.

Madrigal was a case of building up the asset value of a player to send him elsewhere. I don’t think he was ever viewed as a long term solution at third base. He can be a second division second baseman but not enough stick for third base and really can’t play shortstop. I expect he will be moved this winter.

George Altman 10/01/2023 - 10:13 pm (view)

I agree and that's a Hoyer problem. He gave Mastrobouni and Madrigal to Ross on the same Roster. Of course Ross is going to give both PAs. The solution is for Hoyer to have 1 on the 26-man. Sign better infielders or bats next year.

JoePepitone 10/01/2023 - 10:23 pm (view)

Just checked the Gameday. Joey was right (and not really close, either). 

JoePepitone 10/01/2023 - 10:11 pm (view)

Works for me. 

crunch 10/01/2023 - 10:40 pm (view)

lifeless last game and loss.  83-79 record...2nd place in the NL Central

crunch 10/01/2023 - 10:31 pm (view)

waino K's in his pinch hit appearance.  STL crowd before and after the PA big pops...curtain call...all that stuff.