2006 Rule 5 Draft

The 2006 Rule 5 Draft meeting was held this morning at the MLB Winter Meetings at Lake Buena Vista, FL, near Disney World. The Cubs lost three players in the Major League Phase of the Draft--LHP Edward Campusano to MIL (the Brewers then sold Campusano's draft rights to DET), RHP Lincoln Holdzkom to HOU, and INF Jason Smith to TOR, and two players in the AAA phase--2B Richard Lewis to KC and RHP Andy Shipman to OAK. The Cubs also selected one player in the Major League Phase (OF Josh Hamilton from TB) and one player in the AAA phase (RHP Jim Henderson from WAS), but Hamilton was subsequently sent to the Cincinnati Reds in a cash deal. After the conclusion of the Rule 5 Draft, the Cubs acquired RHP Kevin Hart from BAL as the PTBNL in yesterday's deal where Freddie Bynum was sent to the Orioles. Hart was selected by the O's in the 11th round of the 2004 Rule 4 Draft (June Draft) out of the University of Maryland, and was a rotation starter at Hi-A Frederick last season. Hart will be eligible for the Rule 5 Draft for the first time after next season, so the Cubs have a year to decide whether to place him on their 40-man roster. MAJOR LEAGUE PHASE ($50,000 draft price) NOTE: Player must be kept on drafting club's 25-man roster for entire 2007 season or be offered back to original club for half the draft price 1st ROUND TB: Ryan Goleski, OF - selected from CLE (draft rights traded to OAK) KC: Joakim Soria, RHP - selected from SD CUBS: Josh Hamilton, OF - selected from TB (draft rights sold to CIN) PIT: Sean White, RHP - selected from ATL (draft rights sold to SEA) BAL: Alfredo Simon, RHP - selected from TEX (draft rights traded to PHI) WAS: Jesus Flores, C - selected from NYM MIL: Edward Campusano, LHP - selected from CUBS (draft rights sold to DET) CIN: Jared Burton, RHP - selected from OAK HOU: Lincoln Holdzkom, RHP - selected from CUBS PHI: Adam Donachie, C - selected from KC (draft rights traded to BAL) BOS: Nick DeBarr, RHP - selected frrom TB TOR: Jason Smith, INF - selected from CUBS SD: Kevin Cameron, RHP - selected from MIN OAK: Jay Marshall, LHP - selected from CHW MIN: Alejandro Machado, INF - selected from WAS NYY: Josh Phelps, 1B - selected from BAL 2nd ROUND WAS: Levale Speigner, RHP - selected from MIN PHI: Jim Ed Warden, RHP - selected from CLE 3rd ROUND PHI: Ryan Budde, C - selected from LAA ==================================== AAA PHASE ($12,000 draft price) NOTE: All sales are final - No roster restrictions - Player may be assigned to any team in drafting club's organization 1st ROUND TB: Erold Andrus, OF-1B - selected from MIN KC: Richard Lewis, 2B - selected from CUBS CUBS: Jim Henderson, RHP - selected from WAS PIT: Moises Robles, RHP - selected from NYMs WAS: Justin Jones, LHP - selected from MIN MIL: Michael Carlin, 1B - selected from PIT COL: Salomon Manriquez, C - selected from WAS SF: Trey Webb, INF - selected from WAS FLA: Josh Labandeira, INF - selected from WAS CIN: Francisco Mateo, LHP - selected from TOR TEX: Johany Abreu, SS - selected from SF STL: Omar Falcon, C - selected from SF PHI: Victor Hall, OF - selected from NYY SD: Brandon Powell, INF - selected from WAS OAK: Andy Shipman, RHP - selected from CUBS MIN: Jesse Floyd, RHP - selected from SF NYM: Ricardo Morales, LHP - selected fom WAS 2nd ROUND FLA: Cristhian Martinez, RHP - selected from DET TEX: Kendy Batista, RHP - selected from BAL STL: Jose Contreras, SS - selected from WAS OAK: Josh Alliston, RHP - selected from MIL MIN: Brian Buscher, 3B - selected from SF 3rd ROUND FLA: Lorenzo Scott, OF - selected from BAL TEX: Brian Munhall, C - selected from SF ============================= AA PHASE ($4,000 draft price) NOTE: All sales are final - No roster restrictions - Player may be assigned to any team in drafting club's organization TB: Paul Moviel, RHP - selected from CHW PIT: Kevin Cave, RHP - selected from FLA CIN: Nick Moran, RHP - selected from TB ============================================ The Cubs selected former Devil Rays top prospect OF Josh Hamilton (who has spent the last few years battling personal demons) with the #3 overall pick in the 1st round of the Major League Phase, and then sent Hamilton to CIN in a straight-cash deal. The Cubs also made one selection in the AAA phase, acquiring RHP Jim Henderson from the Washington Nationals for the AAA draft price of $12,000. Henderson is a 24-year middle reliever who has spent the last four seasons in "A" ball, so he might get a shot at making the AA Tennesssee Smokies bullpen in 2007, or he could end up at Daytona, or he might get released (as happened with the two pitchers the Cubs selected in last year's AAA phase of the Rule 5 Draft, LHP Carlos Jan and RHP Geivy Garcia). The three players selected from the Cubs in the Major League Phase are: LHP Edward Campusano The 24-year old Campusano was selected by Milwaukee, but the Brewers then sold his draft rights to the Tigers. An All-Star at Peoria and the top closer in the MWL before receiving a June double-jump promotion to AA West Tenn, Campusano as probably on the same track to the big leagues as Clay Rapada (who along with RHP Rocky Cherry, was added to the Cubs 40-man roster last month) before suffering a mid-season season-ending elbow injury (prognosis unknown). But if healthy, Campusano (like Rapada) could be a terrific MLB LOOGY. RHP Lincoln Holdzkom Selected by the Astros, the 24-year old Holdzkom was one of two pitchers acquired from Florida at the end of Spring Training for Todd Wellemeyer. Once a promising Marlins relief prospect (good enough to be added to the Marlins 40-man roster in 2003), Holdzkom tore an elbow ligament in 2004 that required Tommy John ligament transplant surgery. Still trying to find his way back, Linc throws hard cider (mid-90's heater and biting slider), and when he's "on," he can be unhittable... and when he's "off"... he can't hit the side of a barn. On the mound, he sort of resembles ex-Piniella "Nasty Boy" Rob Dibble. If Holdzkom can get his mechanics straightened-out and then replicate it, and find a consistent release point, he could be another Bobby Jenks. If he can't, he could be out of baseball this time next year. INF Jason Smith It's unusual when a player who was available to all 30 teams in October as a Minor League Free-Agent gets selected in the Rule 5 Draft, but that didn't stop the Jays from selecting 29-year old supersub utility player Jason Smith from the Cubs. A one-time hot-shot shortstop prospect in the Cubs organization, Smith was traded to TB in the deal for Fred McGriff in July 2001, and he has accumulated two-plus years of MLB service time as a utility player over the past few years with TB, DET, and COL. While he never developed into an everyday player, Smith is athletic and versatile (he can play all infield and all outfield positions, and he's also a decent LHPH), with good speed and some HR power (he hit five HR in about 100 PA with the Rockies last season). The Cubs signed Smith as a MLFA last month, and prior to being selected in the Rule 5 Draft, I thought Smith had a pretty good chance to make the Cubs 2007 Opening Day roster as the "25th man" (Freddie Bynum's old slot). Among the notable Cubs players available for selection in the Major Phase who were not selected are 2B Mike Fontenot, C Jake Fox, 3B Casey McGehee, and LHP Carmen Pignatiello. The Cubs lost two players in the AAA phase (and these sales are final, the Cubs wil not get these players back): 2B Richard Lewis The Royals selected Lewis with the second overall pick in the AAA phase. Acquired from ATL during Spring Training 2004 in a deal for RHP Juan Cruz, Lewis was a one-time #1 draft pick of the Atlanta Braves out of Georgia Tech who starred in the AFL in 2003. He was on the Cubs 40-man roster in 2004 and 2005, and was an All-Star second-baseman in the Southern League while playing for West Tenn in '04, before suffering a fractured leg on the last day of the season. Returning to action in 2005 at AAA Iowa, Lewis was just a shell of his former self, and was outrighted to the minors after the season. He was demoted back to AA in 2006, where he was used as a utility player (2B-1B-3B-LF). Blocked in the Cubs system by fellow second-basemen Eric Patterson and Mike Fontenot, Lewis had zero future in the Cubs organization. He will be a Six-Year Minor League Free-Agent after the 2007 season. RHP Andy Shipman Selected by the Oakland A's, the 25-year old Shipman was signed as a NDFA out of the University of Missouri in 2003, and was acquired by the Cubs from BOS in a 2004 deal involving LHP Jimmy Anderson. Shipman was the closer at AA West Tenn in 2005, before getting a promotion to Iowa in 2006, where he worked mainly in middle-relief. He could emerge as an MLB middle-reliever at some point down the line. One other player of note selected in the AAA phase was one-time Cubs BA Top Ten Prospect Justin Jones, the young LHP who went to the Twins as part of the multi-team deal that netted the Cubs Nomar Garciaparra and Matt Murton in 2004. Jones was selected from the Twins by the Washington Nationals (which essentially is the "hometown team" of the Virginia native).
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Comments

Cubs sold Josh Hamilton to Cincy

The link for Campusano isn't working.

Jason Smith? Thanks for the $30,000 contribution to the Ted Lilly fund.

Interesting...the Phillies took three different players.

BA is running a blog on the Rule 5 draft. It's free for non-subscribers:

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospect...

They've were pretty blown away by the Josh Hamilton pick:

Brilliant move by the Cubs on Josh Hamilton; why didn't we think of that? No one has his upside in this draft, he's the biggest Rule 5 name Jim Callis or I can recall, and if he can tame his demons, he could produce a big payoff. Perhaps being around big leaguers and a big league atmosphere will bring out the best in Hamilton, and Lou Piniella certainly has been around him from his days in the Devil Rays organization. Same for Tim Wilken, the Cubs' scouting director. Smart, low-risk move, and maybe it will help the Rays as well. Now they don't have to deal with Josh Hamilton questions anymore.

Hamilton arguably has more upside than Crawford or Baldelli, but since the Cubs are in win now mode, they can't afford to keep a guy on the 25-man who's coming straight out of Single A, no matter how good he is. Damn.

Some more info on Hamilton in the link above, including a phone interview with him at the bottom. He sounds like he's put his life back together nicely.

So PIT drafted one of their own players in the draft?

So Phil, since the Cubs select Hamilton but traded him to the Reds, what happens if the Reds don't keep him? Does he go back to the Cubs or back to the D-Rays?

D-Rays.

I expect they will keep him though, he can be Adam Dunn's defensive replacement and get some Pinch AB's. He will also get a muscle pull or ankle twist during the season that will let him go on minor league rehab to get some at bats for a week.

I have to admit, it was a pretty smart move. Good week for Wilkins, he wins that scouting award and may have paid for his salary with that draft and sell (if it was his idea, of course).

I believe Smith was drafted by the Jays, not the Phils, AZ Phil.

Rotoworld says Sox trade Garland to Houston for Taveras and Buchholz.

Kenny has lost his mind.

Astros are getting Jon Garland for the Sox for Willy Taveras and Taylor Buchholz, from Houston Chronicle via Rotoworld.

Rotoworld says Sox trade Garland to Houston for Taveras and Buchholz.

What?!?! Tavereras is terrible... the Sox would be better off with Pods and Anderson in the outfield.

If this all it took, couldn't we have just sent Jones and Marshall for Garland?

Wow!

Garland is a bit overated. He just doesn't strike out very many batters. The players traded are only rumored, but Bucholz isn't that bad and Taveras increased his ISO OBP by .021 last year. With his speed if he can do that again he is going to be a pretty nice player. He still has trouble with his routes in the field but his speed helps him compensate. He has a average strength, very accurate arm.

Also saw that Jason Hirsh was going to the Sox too. So it might not be so terrible for them.

yeah, and the same for gavin floyd andy somebody named gonzales for freddy garcia! and the price via trade was supposed to be so high, which is why hendry spent so much $ on lilly. Who is this the equivalent of in our system, and why could hendry have done that? Could Marshall and, say, Guzman have gotten either one of these deals done?

Kenny has lost his mind.

He's clearing more salary ($10M in 07, $12M in 08). Worked out well for him when he traded Carlos Lee...

I wonder if Kansas City, with Soria and Meche in the stable can be enticed into trading Greinke for Cedeno.

Hendry had an angioplasty...

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2...

Maybe this was why he never gave out big money to FA's in the past. It basically gave him a heart attack.

According to WFAN in NY, Meche is signing with KC for 4/$40-$45.

What's so crazy is not that Williams is clearing payroll or trading two of his starters, but rather what he's getting in return. Taveras and Gavin Floyd are overrated and Buchholz and Gio Gonzalez are not the prospects they once were. Considering the FA and trade market, Williams should have been able to do much better. I have to think he's going to make a run at someone like Dontrelle Willis, Rocco Baldelli or Vernon Wells.

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/6247654

Fox Sports reporting 4/45 and that both the Cubs and BJ had 4/40 on the table. Greedy bastard...

Meche had stated he'd like to stay in the AL and that he prefers smaller markets (KC) to larger ones (Chi-town, Toronto).

Campusano got moved to the Tigers btw.

At least we kept Fontenot. :)

Holdzkom worries me the most...

Thank god Meche's a greedy bastard....

Any chance Williams is going to trade Podsednik back to the Brewers for Mench? That would be an ironic twist. I wouldn't mind them putting that out machine back at the top of thier lineup either.

In my mind Guzman and Gallagher may be close to what the Sox got for Garcia. Of course, my impression and that of the Sox's scouts may be totally different.

I think Hendry is still feeling a little burned by the Pierre for Nolasco trade, but he needs to get over that. Minor leaguers are for trading if you're going for a WS. You don't hear Epstien whining about Ramirez and Sanchez in Florida.

Ok...so no Meche, where does that leave the Cubs rotation?

Z
Lilly
Hill
Prior/Miller/Marshall/Guzman
Prior/Miller/Marshall/Guzman

I know I am not confidant with our 4 and 5 being a combination from those four.

Jennings? I doubt Westbrook is really available...

A long shot, but Penny?

Can't we just steal a starter from Pitt? They like to give us players...

DAVE-
Z, Lilly, Hill as the top 3 in the rotation is not very good at all. Hendry still has lots of work to do, hopefully he heals quickly and starts working some kind of trade for a solid #2.

I am not confident with Lilly being higher than #4.

The offense is going to be better with Lee and Soriano, but not so much better we can try to bash our way to the playoffs with a rotation of LAIM's and a good bullpen.

Cotts is in that 5th starter salad as well.

I guess it would help if I could spell...oh well.

That should be confident.

Yeah, as mediocre as Meche would have been, he would have been a warm body. We could really use a trade partner right about now, as well as a healthy GM.

Z, Lilly, Hill as the top 3 in the rotation is not very good at all.

It is not great, but it could be pretty decent. I think we are more likely to get "Good" Hill than "Bad" Hill. Good Hill could mean a good three or decent two, of not better.

Lilly...not so sure.

So obviously Hendry still has work to do, but what are his realistic options?

Dave:
"So obviously Hendry still has work to do, but what are his realistic options?"

Zito or find a trade partner (FLA-Willis, SD-Peavy, etc.)

dave:
I know I am not confidant with our 4 and 5 being a combination from those four.

I totally agree, Prior, Miller, Marshall, Guzman should ONLY BE backup plans if one of the regular starters go down.

mannytrillo:
Z, Lilly, Hill as the top 3 in the rotation is not very good at all. Hendry still has lots of work to do, hopefully he heals quickly and starts working some kind of trade for a solid #2.

Lilly could pitch as a #2 starter, especially in the NL central. You're right, though, acquiring a bonafide #2 man would be ideal.

It's still nice to have one less question mark, because come next season, those question marks turn into rookie fill-ins.

I agree that Lilly could be a #2 moving from the AL East (where he was third in the rotation) to the NL Central. He could also suck and be a #5.

Manny, who the hell are the Cubs going to trade for Willis or Peavy?

Isn't the Justin Jones taken by Washington in the AAA portion of the draft the same player the Cubs sent to the Twins as part of the Nomar deal?

I haven't been following him, but I thought he was a pretty decent prospect.

Daryle Ward supposedly signed for a 1-year contract.

Zito or find a trade partner (FLA-Willis, SD-Peavy, etc.)

i did say realistic, and I don't think that any of those three are that realistic.

Zito is not coming to chicago, and even if he wanted to he, it not worth the money that he is going to get elsewhere.

Willis is dirt cheap to the marlins right now - they have no reason to trade him. Peavy is a long shot.

Jennings is a much more realistic option.

Garland Deal NOT DONE.....
From Newsday:
"The Astros were quite confident they had a deal with the White Sox for righthander Jon Garland this morning, and high-ranking team officials had no problem telling people as much. But White Sox officials insist there is no deal -- at least not yet. And their contingent of team officials is currently leaving the winter meetings as I type."

Isn't the Justin Jones taken by Washington in the AAA portion of the draft the same player the Cubs sent to the Twins as part of the Nomar deal?

Yep. BA reported on their blog the Twins began to have serious concerns about Jones acting like a professional, e.g. staying focused, staying in shape, maintaining consistent mechanics, etc. Apparently, his stock has dropped quite a bit.

The news about Brad Penny is encouraging for teams that want to trade for him.

Brad Penny, the National League starter in the All-Star game, is the most likely trade bait because his temper problems became tiresome to the Dodgers and he had a poor second half. However, executives from other teams said Penny's stock has dropped to the point that it could be difficult for the Dodgers to deal him for a proven hitter unless they also include at least one top prospect.

It talks about how Penny and Vernon Wells would be a good swap but outside of that I don't know if Jones would be up their alley in exchange for Penny. They don't even have to include a top prospect, we will be nice.

No way would Toronto trade Wells for Penny.

Penny is the same guy who had a 6+ ERA in the second half last year.

Yes Toronto would consider a swap for Penny. They need rotation help after they lost Lilly and are being priced out of the Vernon Wells sweepstakes. In case you have forgotten people are projecting him to make $20 million a year when he hits free agency.

The deal makes sense for both sides 1) If the Dodgers want to take on that kind of salary in the future 2) If Toronto wants to improve its rotation behind Roy Halliday.

According to the NY papers Beane is accepting offers on his entire rotation. The problem the Cubs have is that they don't develop players who control the strike zone, like Beane finds attractive. Guzman and maybe Wells would interest him, but I don't think that would be enough to get either of the H boys or Blanton.

Jones could probably get us Rodrigo Lopez or Daniel Cabrera from the Orioles. There are many reasons the Orioles are bad, but 300 innings from the two of them is a big one.

Jones paired with Mateo, Marmol, Marshall or Guzman may be able to pry one of the Pittsburg starters free. I would take Duke, though that would leave us pretty leftish.

I guess Jones is not going to be attractive to the Dodgers now that they have Gonzo. Maybe the Giants need a RF, not sure if Jones is old enough for them, but they may not need anyone if Bonds rejoins them and they keep Winn in right. Supposedly they were accepting offes on Lowry.

Pavano and $12 million could probably be had for a Mateo level prospect, if you want to throw another rehab project into the 4-5th starter stew.

Greinke from KC may be availabe, in a change of scenery type trade, though his anxiety problems probably won't be helped when the morons at wrigly start booing.

Maybe the Garcia and Garland trades will lower the asking price on Jennings, so that he can be had without effecting the big league roster, or for Jones.

Suppan and Weaver are still out there, both of whom have been more successful than Meche in their careers. I don't think anyone is going to go 4 X $11.25 on Weaver.

Leiber is supposed to be available, for a right fielder. Think the Phillies would need to throw in a prospect for with him for Jones, and they may be prospect shy right about now. How about Victorino and Leiber for Jones and Marshall? That would give the Cubs their cushion for Pie and their nominal 4th starter and the Phillies would get thier power hitting corner outfielder and their AAAA replacement for Floyd.

Andrew:
"Manny, who the hell are the Cubs going to trade for Willis or Peavy?"

I was using them as examples. If Hendry wants to win this year, which it appears he is finally willing to spend money, then he needs to go get a pitcher like that. Meche/Lilly/etc. of the world won't get it done, IMO.

Oh and I forget Penny is also the same pitcher who went 10-2 with a 2.95 ERA in the first half. He is #2 to #1 quality.

He does seem to have a problem finishing out a season strong where his ERA is a near 2 full runs higher from the first half to the 2nd half. Whether it is stamina, mechanics or a combination of both he is a tantalizing piece to put in anyones rotation.

Plus Penny's salary is a freaking steal at the market rates now. He will earn 7 million in 2007 and 8.5 in 2008. He is a better pitcher than Lilly for much less.

Dave:
"i did say realistic, and I don't think that any of those three are that realistic."

Then I don't think it is "realistic" the Cubs win next year. I think they still have a ways to go in the starting staff.

If Hendry wants to win this year, which it appears he is finally willing to spend money, then he needs to go get a pitcher like that. Meche/Lilly/etc. of the world won't get it done, IMO

Well, yes, I probably agree. But if Hendry is to "go get them" he still has to give up something. I'm wondering what you think he would have to give up. Don't throw out names and then back away from them claiming ignorance as to what those names will cost.

Then I don't think it is "realistic" the Cubs win next year. I think they still have a ways to go in the starting staff.

That's completely skirting the issue, and you know it. If you think the Cubs need starting pitching to win next year, then name the starting pitching (and who it will take to get it) you have in mind, rather than repeating that without that starting pitching the Cubs won't win. We understand you think the Cubs need more pitching. Unless you're going to provide some ideas, your point is pretty useless.

cubs got 1 starter and a CF to settle...and yes, the guy who just got a 10m contract will probally be the #2 pitcher. and no, that dont mean sh*t.

Z was the #3 pitcher for years even when he was the #1 talent. big deal. they're gonna get another arm and who cares where they put them. come may it wont matter who's the #2 or the #3.

barring a super pickup its probably gonna be:

z/lilly/?/prior/miller-cotts-kids

mannytrillo:
Then I don't think it is "realistic" the Cubs win next year. I think they still have a ways to go in the starting staff.

I think a ritual "shooting of the messenger" is in order here:

Manny is a blowhard.

Okay, I'm done. Actually, I agree with you. I think the Cub's needed to shore up the rotation more than they needed Soriano.

Andrew:
"I'm wondering what you think he would have to give up. Don't throw out names and then back away from them claiming ignorance as to what those names will cost."

I have no clue what it would take to get them. I did not talk to the FL or SD GM to see what they are looking for. But there would not be a prospect in our system that would be untouchable and at this point it looks like JJ or Murton could be expendable. If that is not enough to get them, then we don't land a top tier pitcher and we are going to have a tough time winning next year.

Crunch:
"barring a super pickup its probably gonna be: z/lilly/?/prior/miller-cotts-kids"

UGH...I think you are right and that will be most realistic, but it doesn't get me too excited for next year. Especially not knowing one bit if Prior and Miller will be healthy for Opening Day.

The other problem the Cubs may have had with bringing in Meche, which may materialize again with Weaver is that they do have a lot of starting candidates in house.

If you were Meche, would you want to be fighting a healthy Wade Miller and Mark Prior for a rotation spot? Why not just go to KC, where you're instantly the opening day starter?

"UGH...I think you are right and that will be most realistic, but it doesn't get me too excited for next year. Especially not knowing one bit if Prior and Miller will be healthy for Opening Day."

you should check out houston, cin, pitt, mil, and stl if that rotation scares you.

they might as well give up totally under that scrutiny.

Bruce Levine (espn chicago) says Daryl ward is a cub almost for sure. ph/1B/OF backup, hits very nicely and for power against righties. let's not talk about lefties

cubs are supposedly close to a deal with jason marquis, if he ends up being your 4/5 starter/inning eater i think i'm ok with that.

Good point Real Neal...Big fish in small pond.

Crunch:
"you should check out houston, cin, pitt, mil, and stl if that rotation scares you. they might as well give up totally under that scrutiny."

I don't think any of those teams have a $125 million payroll.

marquis...puke.

now that is a guy who i'd rather see a kid get his slot than him.

his only positive is his health. might as well get jeff weaver...meh. and the sad thing is he'll cost well more than the 5-6m he's "worth" because of this crazy ass market.

I agree with crunch. I think if the season started with the current NL Central rosters, the Cubs would be the slight favorites.

The Cubs are probably still going to add a starter though, the Brewers a center fielder, the Assholes and Cards two starters and the Pirates will make their anual right fielder signing, and the Reds will make two more curious moves. But right now, the Cubs are in the best position of any of the teams.

Now that I think about it, the NL central is pretty prospect poor, so I would be suprised if any of the teams get a great deal better through trades.

Thank you KC for saving the Cubs from a potentially horrible signing. What about Suppan? At least you know what you're getting. He'll make all of his starts and pitch 200 innings.

If Houston gets Jon Garland, the assumption is the Astros don't expect Pettitte to come back. So if Pettitte is going back to Houston does that mean he knows Clemens isn't going to pitch anymore? If so, Garland and whoever they come up with will be a drop from Clemens and Pettitte.

Also, I see where everybody (print and electronic) is running the same Lou is a great recruiter stories that were run on Dusty during the winter of 2002.
There is really only 1 strong recruiting tool: CASH.

I don't think any of those teams have a $125 million payroll.

What does that have to do with anything?

Vorare:
"What does that have to do with anything?"

I wouldn't expect a team with a $90 million payroll to have the same starting staff as a team with a $125 million payroll.

and Marquis is an even better hitter than Zambrano...StL did use him to pinch hit 9-10 per season.

Zambrano 2005 (his best hitting season*)
.300 .300 .462

* except for his 6 HR's in 2006 but his 2006 line was:
.151 .160 .397

Marquis 2005 (his best hitting season):
.310 .326 .460

Marquis 2006:
.179 .210 .256

Marquis as a pinch hitter
2005: 3-9
2006: 3-10

Brooks Kiechnick part deux...

I wouldn't expect a team with a $90 million payroll to have the same starting staff as a team with a $125 million payroll.

What you "expect" is totally irrelevant when you're comparing rotations. The other teams in the division don't get free wins added to their record because we out spent them.

Zambrano has a noticeable edge in power. Hopefully someone will get him under control next year, I wouldn't be suprised if his back issues were related more related to his violent swings than to his pitching.

I know I am going to get bombasted for it, but I said if the Cubs struck out on free agents they should consider trading Zambrano.

I still think they should consider trading him, if they can get a guy farther away from free agency to replace him. I am not really keen on his long term success. He seems to put on 20 lbs a year and even though he controlled his temper better last year, he doesn't seem to be getting any smarter as a pitcher. He actually seems to be regressing, based on the way he tried to strike everyone out last year.

Why would anyone in their right mind sign with KC?

some reports are now saying Meche is getting a 5 yr deal...but no update on the total $$ package

"I know I am going to get bombasted for it, but I said if the Cubs struck out on free agents they should consider trading Zambrano."

You deserve to get lambasted, as well as bombasted (whatever that means), for this thought.

oh yes, don't forget that Z is a switch hitter!

Vorare:
"The other teams in the division don't get free wins added to their record because we out spent them."

They get to play the Cubs 18 times a year, that is pretty close, don't you think? :)

Please please please can someone why Meche is worth 10-11 million dollars? I just don't get it!?

'They get to play the Cubs 18 times a year, that is pretty close, don't you think?'

It's been a few years since the Cubs had a losing record against the Central, either '02 or '00 I guess.

Lilly is basically what Maddux is at this point. They cost the same money and will be about the same caliber pitcher. Maddux has slightly better numbers since he played in the NL and Lilly in AL.

2004-06:
Maddux: 44-40, 4.16 ERA, 1.21 WHIP
Lilly: 37-34, 4.52 ERA, 1.41 WHIP

Neal:
"It's been a few years since the Cubs had a losing record against the Central"

I was joking, thus the ":)". But it is amazing how much the Cardinals have owned the Cardinals head-to-head the past couple years.

"Please please please can someone why Meche is worth 10-11 million dollars? I just don't get it!?"

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/unfiltered/

' A couple of years ago, I calculated that Hanley Ramirez and Jon Lester ó who were considered ìBî prospects at the time ó were worth about $10 million between them.'

Meche's contract, like almost all free agent contracts, using BP's salary evaluation method (marginal salary/marginal wins) is bad. But what it does do is allows the Royals to not 'spend' their valuable prospects for rotation filler or damage their prospects value by calling them up too early, when they will be 1. less successful and 2. starting their arb clocks quicker, consequently destorying their value.

The other way to answer your question, is that if a 31 year old league average pitcher is worth 4 X $10, then a 28 year old with a 98 MPH fastball is worth 5 X 11.

Yup, those Cardinals versus Cardinals games have really been lopsided. :)

"But it is amazing how much the Cardinals have owned the Cardinals head-to-head the past couple years."

Yeah I hear they have some pretty fierce husband-wife softball games.

I finally get a spell check, but I don't proof read...UGH

Should of read: "amazing how much the Cubs have owned the Cardinals head-to-head the past couple years."

Something to keep in mind is that normally when a player selected in the Major League Phase of the Rule 5 Draft is offered back to and accepted by his orginal club, the player is automatically outrighted to the minors. That happened (for instance) in the cases of Jason Dubois (selected by TOR in 2002), Jason Szuminski (selected by SD in 2003), Luke Hagerty (selected by BAL and then traded to FLA in 2004), and Juan Mateo (selected by STL in 2005), who were returned by the drafting club to the Cubs when the player was not kept on the drafting club's 25-man roster. Such would also be the case with Edward Campusano, too, if he is offered back to the Cubs. But if Lincoln Holdzkom or Jason Smith are returned to the Cubs, neither can be sent outright to the minors without the risk of them exercising an option to be a free-agent (both have been previously outrighted in their careers).

If the Astros offer Lincoln Holdzkom back to the Cubs and the Cubs accept, the Cubs would have to place Holdzkomm on their 40-man roster, and then option him to the minors (Holdzkom has two minor league options available). If they try to send him outright to the minors, he has the option to declare himself a FA.

If the Blue Jays offer Jason Smith back to the Cubs and the Cubs accept, not only would the Cubs have to place Jason Smith on their 40-man roster, they would have to keep him on their 25-man regular season roster, too. That's because Smith has not only been previously outrighted in his career (so he cannot be outrighted without having the option to be a FA), but he is also out of minor league options.

Gil Meche story unfolding:

KC Star reporting...$55-60M x 5 yrs.

Specific financial details were not known, but the package is believed to approach $55 million to $60 million. The richest contract in club history is Mike Sweeneyís current five-year deal for $55 million, which expires after next season.

http://tinyurl.com/v2797

These minor league deals with Spring Training invites, do they include signing bonuses?

i could see holdzkom coming back unless he's traded to a low-payroll team who can just let him sit in the pen for no real harmful impact (kc/tb/etc.)

ed campusano is probally a goner, though.

i got no idea who jason smith is, so i guess i don't care what happens to him until i find out otherwise.

Wow, Meche is getting $11 million per year for five years? That fifth year at a pace of $11 million is pretty amazing. I might have to head out to the back yard with the radar gun and see what I can get my heater up to.

Gil Meche... $60 mil... head... going to explode...

Anyone else catch Paul Sullivan on the Score this morning (around 8:30 CST)? Apparently Lou was in the bar drinking at 3am - Guess the players aren't the only ones needing amphetamines for the afternoon games next summer. He also reported a random Jeff Samardija sighting at the winter meetings (!?!).

NEAL, MANNY, et. al.

Yesterday I visited "The Batter's Box" blog which whose link Rob has graciously afforded us.

It is interesting to read the majority of the posts were quite favorable.

If you haven't checked it out, you may find it entertaining and maybe enlightening for the local perspective.

#79 of 80: By The Real Neal (December 7, 2006 01:26 PM)
These minor league deals with Spring Training invites, do they include signing bonuses?

=======================================

REAL NEAL: Normally, no. Players signed to minor league contracts who get an NRI to Spring Training are usually just happy to get a chance to show their stuff and maybe catch the manager's eye. They also get the MLB Spring Training Living Allowance ($240-285 per week), Housing Allowance ($25 per day), and Per Diem ($68 per day)--for a total of about $900+ a week--for as long as they remain in the big league camp.

In the case of the three players selected from the Cubs in the Rule 5 Draft (Campusano, Holdzkom, and Smith), each will be getting at least the new MLB minimum salary of $380K from their new clubs, although Smith could get a little bit more because he has two-plus years of MLB experience, although he is still in the "auto-renewal" category and so he has no real control over his salary. In that sense, he is still at the mercy of his club for one more year (when he will be eligible for salary arbitration for the first time).

Phil,

Yes, but what about Hamilton? Would he go back to the D-Rays or to the Cubs?

#84, I mean on Lilly.

AZ Phil,

If you wish to update the post...

Tigers acquired LHP Edward Campusano, a selection in Thursday's Rule 5 draft, from the Brewers for cash considerations.
Campusano, a 24-year-old drafted out of the Cubs' chain, had a 1.46 ERA and an 81/17 K/BB ratio in 55 1/3 innings between low Single-A Peoria and Double-A West Tenn last season. He'll be a long shot to become the second lefty in Detroit's pen.

In case you hadn't noticed Neal, we're in "win now" mode. We don't need to be trading the one guy who can carry this team and did for parts of 2006, no matter how valuable he is. Zambrano will not be traded.

#86 of 87: By Andrew (December 7, 2006 01:47 PM)
Phil,

Yes, but what about Hamilton? Would he go back to the D-Rays or to the Cubs?

======================================

ANDREW: If the Reds choose not to keep Josh Hamilton on their 25-man regular season roster next year, they must place him on Outright Waivers and any of the other MLB clubs can claim him and assume the Rule 5 requirements. When and if he clears waivers, he must be offered back to his original club (Tampa Bay). By selling his rights to CIN, the Cubs no longer have any Rule 5 connection with the Hamilton selection whatsoever.

The same thing happened when the Baltimore Orioles selected Like Hagerty from the Cubs in the 2004 Rule 5 Draft and then traded him to FLA. Once the Marlins decided not keep Hagerty (Spring Training 2005), he was placed on Outright Waivers, did not get claimed, was accepted back by the Cubs, and was sent outright to the minors.

Thanks Rob! I'll add that.

Alas, that's what I figured. Thanks, Phil.

"Cubs acquired RHP Kevin Hart from the Orioles to complete the Freddie Bynum trade."

Hart, who turned 24 last week, went 6-11 with a 4.61 ERA, 149 H and 122/65 K/BB in 148 1/3 IP for Single-A Frederick last season. He wasn't close to being one of the Orioles' better pitching prospects. It's unlikely that he'll develop into a major leaguer.

---
from the world of roto.

http://orioles.scout.com/2/590450.html

it's less than a month old

I think it's a premium article so I'll paraphrase....

- good hitter in Maryland, but O's decided to make him a pitcher

- Heís got great makeup and heís probably been one of the most dependable starters Iíve had all year at this level. (from his pitching coach)

- Sinking fastball that touches 90 mph (groundball pitcher), solid curveball and a change which his has a tendency to telegraph.

- Good command on all 3 pitches but no out pitch.

- O's were probably going to move him to the bullpen next year, hoping it adds some mph on his fastball or it comes naturally as he fills into his 6'4" frame

- Great attitude, good work ethic

Why do the Cubs even bother sending players to the Orioles, they never give us anything back but total crap. Hairston? Spears? This nobody Hart? I mean, what's the friggin' point?

Start sending your unwanted players to a different organization JH, Baltimore has nothing for us. Nothing.

"In case you hadn't noticed Neal, we're in "win now" mode"

I have noticed. In case you haven't noticed, and by the tone of your post, it is pretty obvious you haven'tm sometimes pitchers eat their way out of being effective. Sometimes you make trades that are 'obviously' bad, but it turns out that what you gave up, wasn't quite what it appears to be. Have you ever heard of Tim Hudson and Mark Mulder? Do you think if the A's had a larger payroll and kept those two players, they would be better off today?

Meche details from Rotoworld:
"Meche will receive a $2 million signing bonus along with a $7 million salary in 2007, $11 million in each of the following two years and $12 million each in 2010 and '11."

"Zambrano 2005 (his best hitting season*)
.300 .300 .462

* except for his 6 HR's in 2006 but his 2006 line was:
.151 .160 .397

Marquis 2005 (his best hitting season):
.310 .326 .460

Marquis 2006:
.179 .210 .256"

Must be cause they were coming off the roids.

Also, according to WSCR there's an offer on the table for Jeff Suppan from the Cubs. No details.

Green Lantern:
cubs are supposedly close to a deal with jason marquis, if he ends up being your 4/5 starter/inning eater i think i'm ok with that.

I think I am too. Say what you want about him sucking, but at least he's out there pitching. That's more than what can be said about Mark Prior or Kerry Wood. I'd rather have a 14-16 pitcher in the rotation than either Wood or Prior.

BadGuy:
Also, according to WSCR there's an offer on the table for Jeff Suppan from the Cubs. No details.

Hendry does realize he's not going to be the same pitcher under Rothschild, right?

Who knows what Hendry realizes? I think he's just desperate to get the second starting pitcher. Maybe he's still under anesthetic. Marquis vs. Suppan? To me flip a coin or pass on both depending on the price.

Suppan is far better and far more reliable than Marquis.

Good point, Ryno. I am sure Suppan is going to come into camp and they'll have a long discussion about how he needs to give up more walks and home runs.

sometimes pitchers eat their way out of being effective.

Zambrano actually came to camp lighter than the previous year, so I don't think that has any bearing on the situatoin.

Sometimes you make trades that are 'obviously' bad, but it turns out that what you gave up, wasn't quite what it appears to be. Have you ever heard of Tim Hudson and Mark Mulder? Do you think if the A's had a larger payroll and kept those two players, they would be better off today?

There were question marks about both Hudson and Mulder when they were traded and neither was an ace of the quality Zambrano is. And the Cubs don't have the depth of starting pitching the A's had when they trade them. And Hendry isn't Beane, so he'd probably not get as good of players. And so on and so on. I don't think the Mulder/Hudson examples are very relevant.

You stated that if the Cubs didn't land a big fish, they should consider trading Zambrano. But since they're in win now mode, by your logic, they should consider trading Zambrano no matter who they acquire.

I don't think you really have an argument here, Neal. The only way trading Zambrano makes any sense is if the Cubs are going into a deep deep rebuilding phase. With Soriano and Piniella on board, they're clearly not. If the Cubs are in "win now" mode they shouldn't be trading their ace.

Despite his walk problems, which need to be fixed admittedly, he's improved his attitude and continues to learn how to pitch better each season. He's a true #1 right now and with more improvement, and fewer walks, he could be among the best starters in baseball.

Start sending your unwanted players to a different organization JH, Baltimore has nothing for us. Nothing.

Do you expect any team to give the Cubs talent in exchange for their trash?

Do you expect your garbage man to pay you to haul your crap away?

Be thankful that there's a team like Baltimore thats willing to take the Cubs trash away!

Suppan is far better and far more reliable than Marquis.

Yes, but does that justify giving him an extra 3 or 4 years at double the salary?

Believe me, I want no part of Marquis, but I don't know if Suppan is maybe even less desirable.

Hmm. I'm glad Soria is getting an opportunity to play. He's got nasty stuff, plain and simple.

Rob G.
Yeah, you're right. Still, to Ryno's point it would be interesting to see what Rothschild does to him.

Andrew,

I think you should maybe, step back from the Cubs cool-aid.

"There were question marks about both Hudson and Mulder when they were traded and neither was an ace of the quality Zambrano is"

1st of all, tell me if these are question marks about Zambrano.
1. He is gaining a lot of weight
2. He has missed time last year because of back problems.
3. He is unsigned.

That is the same number of questions that there were about Hudson, isn't it?

As to part 2 which Hudson wasn't an ace the quality of Zambrano. He had finished 2nd 6th and 4th in Cy Young voting, I assume you're familiar with the award? Remember the year Zambrano pitched 240 innings and had a 2.70 ERA in the AL? Me neither.

"I don't think you really have an argument here, Neal. The only way trading Zambrano makes any sense is if the Cubs are going into a deep deep rebuilding phase"

Just like the A's did when they traded Hudson, a better pitcher than Zambrano, and Mulder in the same off-season.

"He's a true #1 right now and with more improvement, and fewer walks, he could be among the best starters in baseball."

OK, but with a few more Subway footlongs and 6 packs of Tecate he can become Terry Forrester or David Wells. Maybe he switches to Scott Boras and signs with the Yankees for 7 years and $140 million.

1) He isn't gaining a lot of weight. He was actually slimmer in ST last year than in previous years.

2) Not really that troubling, at least in my mind. Everyone's going to have some physical issues, it's sports. He still continues to make his starts.

3) WTF does that have to do with anything. Do you think the Cubs won't pony up the cash for Z after they did for Zambrano?

I'm not going to argue on this one, but you're grasping at straws in my mind. Regardless of whether Hudson was better than Zambrano or not, the A's were in a completely different situation, both financially and strategy-wise, than the Cubs.

Whoops, sorry for the name change there.

in #3, "Zambrano" should be "Soriano."

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