TCR: No Good Will Come of This

Afternoon Delight

A few more links from this afternoon and an invitation to Parachat for tonight's game on WGN per request by Carlos. I may stop by after the kids are in bed.

- If you're worried about Milton Bradley being healthy enough this season and need a national writer in your corner, Joe Sheehan has your back.

That's why this signing was a mistake. It has nothing to do with Bradley's anger-management issues, ones that have defined his career. It has nothing to do with Bradley's skill set as a hitter. It has nothing to do with the money, which was in line with what Adam Dunn and Raul Ibañez signed for. No, the problem is that the Cubs signed a player to do a job that he's not capable of doing. Signing Milton Bradley to be an everyday outfielder is like signing Mark Prior to make 34 starts, or trading for Carlos Delgado to be your catcher, or bringing in Will Carroll to endorse hair-care products. You're asking people to do things their bodies long ago stopped being able to do, and that's a recipe for failure.

- Bradley did return to the lineup and went 1-3 with a double. On cue, the beat writers get to file their weekly "Is Milton Crazy or Not?" report.  

- This shouldn't be news to any of our loyal readers, but Fangraphs notices that the Cubs pitchers have a eight year streak of leading the majors in strikeout rate and wonders if the Giants staff can surpass them this year. I'm a bit too lazy to look it up, but I believe the Cubs were in second or third for a good portion of last season until they acquired Rich Harden (and probably some injuries to the staffs ahead of them).

- "Blame Paul Bako" - the title says it all. (Hat tip to Wrigleyville23)

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#1 Re: Afternoon Delight

Hard to blame a guy who's only going to be in the organization for another four weeks. *fingers crossed*

#2 Re: Afternoon Delight

How's that choice of Josh Vitters over Matt Wieters looking right now? About as bad as we all said it would at the time. Nice.

Mark Pawelek--I take it this guy is done, right? Haven't heard a peep about him. Clearly, scouts think he is a non-prospect bust.

Can Phil tell me what the situation is with Caridad? I'm confused on that one. Does he literally need to be on the 25-man roster all season to keep him?

#3 Re: Afternoon Delight

Hokay.

#21 Re: Afternoon Delight

It's too soon to ask this question.

Wieters will be 23 in May. Vitters will be 20 in August. Wieters played three years of college ball.

#4 Re: Afternoon Delight

I'd blame Paul Bako, but I agree with his politics, so it's all good.

#5 Re: Afternoon Delight

Holy balls, there's a game coming on WGN in a few minutes.

#8 Re: Afternoon Delight

Cubs announcers, no less. I feel all giddy and stuff.

#6 Re: Afternoon Delight

Hey! Al Maestri gets the W for Italy 5-1 over Nolasco and the Fish.

Btw, the Cubs drafted after the Orioles iirc, and Weiters was gone already.

Anyway, since Vitters is barely 19, I'd give it a little time hickman, before passing judgement.

#9 Re: Afternoon Delight

Huh? Facts:

1. David Price (Rays)
2. Mike Moustakas (Royals)
3. Josh Vitters (Cubs)
4. Daniel Moskos (Pirates)
5. Matt Wieters (Orioles)

Also, Matt LaPorta (Brewers, #7)

#10 Re: Afternoon Delight

you seem to think vitters is done or has failed at something...

10 GMs out 10 would pick wieters to hit the majors before vitters...a significantly less margin of them would expect the 6'5" catcher to actually stay a catcher for very long, but that's another discussion.

wieters also got a bucketload of money. he was no shock or surprise to anyone and his quick advancement, though fast paced, doesn't have people going WOOOOOOOAH!?!??!?!

#12 Re: Afternoon Delight

Believe the Orioles paid Wieters twice what we paid Vitters, and if I recall, they still had trouble getting him/Boras to sign, even for that money.

#16 Re: Afternoon Delight

As others have said Wieters was seemed to be unsignable for most teams. He's a 6'5 catcher who, most likely, won't be one for long. He was also a college player and was supposed to be on a fast track to the league while Vitters was not. Also, tell me where Wieters would be playing for the cubs right now? C? 1B? No where? Thought so. Wieters is getting fast tracked for two reasons. 1) Being a college player helps and 2) The O's blow.

It's not as if Vitters is doing horrible or is out of the game. By most accounts he's a top tier prospect and will be an above average major league 3B.

Let's allow the 19 year old kid to grow up and play some serious ball before we already sign him off as a bust and a "we could have had ________"

#23 Re: Afternoon Delight

And, Jim Hickman's Bat is on the bench...

#7 Re: Afternoon Delight

Just looked at the lineup for tonight and, predictably, it sucks.

#11 Re: Afternoon Delight

that was a good game, btw...esp. for this early in the year and the wind blowing out at 20mph+ the whole game.

#13 Re: Afternoon Delight

"DH did return to the lineup and went 1-3 with a double."

after which he was immediately removed for a pinch runner.

#14 Re: Afternoon Delight

Bruce Levine's blog updated with info on Ricketts purchase, Comcast vs WGN revenues to the Cubs and his thoughts on Crosby (yuck).

http://stations.espn.go.com/stations/espnradio1000...

The Cubs' and White Sox's match-ups in Vegas March 4th and 5th will gross the Cubs $1 million and net the White Sox $150,000. In reality, both teams are being paid $150,000 for their two-day excursion, but the Cubs and WGN-TV have a tourism deal with the city of Las Vegas that ups to ante for the north siders with a continued connection between Las Vegas tourism and Cubs advertising.

#15 Re: Afternoon Delight

WBC Recap: Japan 450, China 052. Fukudome 4BB, 1R, led off 3 innings (4,6,8) He really looked like the Fuk we all saw in ST last year, make of it what you will.

*Also, Yu Darvish looked very mature on the mound. Went 4IP, 1BB, 0H, 3Ks. Granted it was China, but he did what he needed to do.

The commentators for ESPN, were a lot more forthcoming this go-round with the difference in baseballs (in Asia they use a different hide, whereas in the States we use rawhide). In 2006, they were going on and on about how none of the Pool A teams were used to the ball, and it went on adnausium.

#17 Re: Afternoon Delight

Submitted by Jim Hickmans Bat on Wed, 03/04/2009 - 8:41pm.

Mark Pawelek--I take it this guy is done, right? Haven't heard a peep about him. Clearly, scouts think he is a non-prospect bust.

 Can Phil tell me what the situation is with Caridad? I'm confused on that one. Does he literally need to be on the 25-man roster all season to keep him?

======================================

JIM HICKMAN's BAT: Esmailin Caridad was originally signed by the Hiroshima Carp and attended the Carp Dominican Academy before moving up to a Japanese minor league and (briefly) playing for the Carp.

Caridad became a free-agent on some technicality after the 2007 season, and the Cubs (Oneri Fleita) signed him as a non-drafted free-agent (NDFA) to a Uniform Minor League Player Contract around Christmas 2007, which means he does not have to be added to the Cubs 40-man roster until after the 2011 season, although it could be earlier if the Cubs want to bring him up to the big leagues before that.

As for Mark Pawelek, he has never had any arm problems. His problems were all mechanics, and a lot of that has to do with the Cubs changing his arm slot (making it more conventional), telling him not to throw everyday (which he had done throughout high school), and then making him junk his power slider and mid-90's four-seam fastball and just go with his more-pedestrian (and less-explosive) high 80's two-seamer, curve, and change-up. But it just messed him up. It was like Jon Garland and Donald Veal all over again.

Pawelek's father was his pitching coach going back to Little League, and he's a bit like Mike Marshall. He has some unconventional theories about pitching (like pitchers should throw every day and pitchers should have an extensive arsenal of pitches so that hitters don't see the same stuff too many times the second or third time through the order), and it worked great for Mark (he set all kinds of pitching records in HS).

But the Cubs have a "Do It Our Way or the Hit the Highway" approach to player development, and while that's fine if it is applied to a "blank slate" from Latin America or a position player converting to pitcher, it is sometimes counter-productive when applied to a pitcher who already has had a lot of success prior to signing with the Cubs, and it can cause a unique talent like Garland, Veal, or Pawelek to fall through the cracks. The Cubs just are not capable of adjusting their coaching to an individual player. But I believe Pawelek has finally decided to just do things his own way.

So this is a "make or break" year for Pawelek, and he has to make (at least) the Peoria Opening Day roster, although he wil probably be assigned to the Daytona Group at Minor League Camp because of his age and experience. If he doesn't make the Peoria (or Daytona) Opening Day roster, he will probably get traded or released, and I know there are at least a couple of organizations who are waiting for the Cubs to give up on him.

One thing to remember about Pawelek is that he's only 22, and if he had gone to Arizona State instead of signing with the Cubs in 2005, he would have finished his junior year at ASU last Spring. So if he can start the season at Peoria, he wouldn't be all that far behind where he should be.

BTW, Pawelek absolutely, positively wants to be a starter, but because he can throw everyday day, I think he would (like Donald Veal) advance much faster and have more success if he were to be used as a power-lefty reliever. That way, he can throw every day and stay sharp. (BTW, that approach seems to be working for Donald Veal this Spring with the Pirates).

#18 Re: Afternoon Delight

For me, that's a rather stunning assessment of the Cubs' development system from an astute observer such as yourself.

Asking you to play Carnac for a moment: Would you blame the Cubs' situation on ignorance, or stupidity, or stubbornness, or is there an actual legitimate reason for this one-size-fits-all approach that can be backed up by concrete examples of scenarios where it's saved the career of young pitchers?

Because from my perspective, following the Cubs of Chicago and maybe Iowa to an extent, it sure seems like we must be doing something in the lower part of the system to screw up a lot of this talent.

Any insight?

#19 Re: Afternoon Delight

These little nuggets of reporting on the innards of the Cub's system are pure gold. Thanks.

#20 Re: Afternoon Delight

Also, it somewhat confirms what I feared about the Cub's farm system and why I don't get too bothered over trades that trade our 6 best prospects for Jake Peavy, for example. Because the likelihood is we won't get much out of our minor league prospects anyways.

Maybe that's just life in a big market organization.

#22 Re: Afternoon Delight

No I think it's life in the Cubs organization. It goes back a long time too; I'm a defender of the Dallas Green regime but I know that they drafted Derrick May with the idea of making him a power hitter, which he wasn't. His dad, former big leaguer Dave May, was his coach and mentor and set him up as a line drive guy. The Cubs wanted him to drop the shoulder more, and he never panned out completely.

I've mentioned before on this site that I spent some time with a long time minor league scout back when Patterson and Choi were at Lansing, and he said that word had come down From Above that there was to be no coaching of these two players in particular, that their hitting styles were fine just as they were and they would get to the big leagues using the same mechanics. They also used that "leave em alone" method with Kerry Wood and Pat Cline. Which is contradictory to what AZ Phil reports about Pawelek, but goes to show you, something is fundamentally wrong with the consistency of the Cubs' system from level to level - besides several years of bad drafting. And the examples I cite are from the Ed Lynch era, I believe, so I wonder if Wilken has had any influence on the quality of the instruction system.

#26 Re: I wonder if Wilken has had any influence on the quality of t

You should first ask, Has Wilken improved the quality of the players in the Cubs system since he took over the draft?

THT ranked the Cubs minor leagues 26th out of 30 the other day.

#27 Re: I wonder if Wilken has had any influence on the quality of t

Yea navigator, but those are just numbers and facts...those aren't very fun when you're trying to have an argument...

#24 Re: Afternoon Delight

Ryno,

When the Cubs won six playoff games in 2003, their 1 and 2 starters were top-five draft picks.

Now their starting staff is mostly veteran acquisitions, and they haven't won a playoff game since 2003.

So there's something to be said for draft picks. I can't really comment on AZ Phil's examples of player-development goof-ups. Garland was a long time ago. Nolasco was 41-17 in the Cubs' system. Sean Gallagher was 38-17 in the minors. Rich Hill was 13-2 at Iowa in the two years before his 11-win 2007 full season with the Cubs.

I think it mostly has to do with the quality of the players drafted. I thought the two Wilken picks in the Vegas game last night--Samardzija and Barney--looked great.

#29 Re: Afternoon Delight

When the Cubs won six playoff games in 2003, their 1 and 2 starters were top-five draft picks.

Now their starting staff is mostly veteran acquisitions, and they haven't won a playoff game since 2003.

So there's something to be said for draft picks.

Huh? Last I heard, the Cubs ace was a Cubs draft pick.

And do you really think that the Cubs haven't wont a playoff game since 2003 because their starting rotation is made up of "veteran acquisitions" rather than draft picks? Really?

I thought the two Wilken picks in the Vegas game last night--Samardzija and Barney--looked great.

Samardzija looked great last night?

#30 Re: Afternoon Delight

When the Cubs won six playoff games in 2003, their 1 and 2 starters were top-five draft picks.

Now their starting staff is mostly veteran acquisitions, and they haven't won a playoff game since 2003.

So there's something to be said for draft picks.

brilliant analysis...I wish to subscribe to your newsletter.

last I checked Zambrano was a Cubs farm system product and Rich Hill started one of those six losses.

Phils: Hamels, Myers, Moyer, Blanton

Red Sox: Beckett, Schilling, Dice-K, Lester

Cardinals: Carpenter, Reyes, Weaver, Suppan

White Sox: Contreras, Buehrle, Garland, Garcia

Red Sox: Wakefield, Schilling,  Pedro, Lowe

Marlins: Beckett, Penny, Redman, Pavano

Angels: Lackey, Appier, Washburn, Ortiz

DBacks: Schilling, Johnson, B. Anderson, M. Batista

 

#32 Re: Afternoon Delight

Are you trying to say the having some combination of Schilling/Beckett will win you the series (4 of 8)? The cubs need to sing Schill ASAP...even if I don't agree with his politics...(countdown to argument in 3...2...1...)

#36 Re: Afternoon Delight

The context here was, let's trade #3 pick Josh Vitters.

So I mentioned a #2 pick and a #4 pick and what they did for the Cubs, versus what all the expensive veteran imports have done.

Except the Yankees, nobody has fewer homegrown players than the Cubs, not even the Red Sox.

I'll define homegrown as drafted, or acquired in a trade while in the minors or still an ML rookie. So Fontenot is homegrown. (But he has never been a starter.) Shane Victorino is homegrown.

Homegrown Phillies who started in the playoffs last year: Hamels and Myers; Rollins, Victorino, Utley, Howard, Burrell, Carlos Ruiz.

Homegrown Cubs who started (or closed) in the playoffs last year: Zambrano and Wood; Theriot and Soto. Fontenot didn't get a start until the third game when Lou finally got fed up with Fukudome. The previous year, it was Zambrano, Hill and Wood; Theriot and Soto.

The Phillies played the Rays in the series. Homegrown Rays who started (or closed) in the series: Kazmir, Shields, Sonnanstine and Price; Upton, Longoria, Crawford, Zobrist.

Homegrown Red Sox starters (or closer) in 2007: Lester and Papelbon; Youkilis, Pedroia, Ellsbury, Varitek.

The Red Sox played the Rockies in that Series. Homegrown Rockies starters (and closer): Francis, Jimenez, Cook and Fuentes; Holliday, Helton, Atkins, Hawpe, Tulowitzki, Spilborghs.

The Cardinals in '06 were patched together and not very good, and may have had fewer homegrowns than usual. Homegrown pitchers were Reyes and Wainwright; regulars were Pujols, Molina and Duncan.

The Cards played the Tigers, who had three homegrown starting pitchers, Verlander, Bonderman and Nate Robertson, plus Zumaya in the pen. Homegrown regulars were Granderson, Monroe, Inge, Santiago.

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