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Cubs To Sign Carlos Pena
Carrie Muskat and just about everyone on twitter is saying the deal is done for Carlos Pena for a grand sum of...
(drumroll please)
1 yr/$10M
I'm sure we'll get more details on Wednesday, but looks like Cubs chose to pay a little more this year and a little less overall than the 2/$14M that Levine suggested earlier. If the numbers are true, it is $2M more than they offered Berkman and I'm wondering if Pena and Co. were willing to take deferred money that Berkman was not.
Pena was the Rangers 10th overall pick in the 1998 draft and was one of the top prospects in the game in the early part of the decade ranking #11 overall in 2001 and #5 overall in 2002 by Baseball America. He bounced around four different organizations (Rangers, A's, Tigers, Red Sox) before finally settling in Tampa in 2007 where he went nuts to the tune of a 1.037 OPS and 46 HR's. He settled down to an .871 OPS in 2008 and .893 in 2009 with over 30 HR's each season before last year's .732 OPS and just 28 HR's and .196 BA. His monthly splits last year show 2 disastrous sub .500 OPS months and 4 above .800, including a .920 OPS in May. Streaky I believe is the term they like to use. He lefty/righty splits are typical with .881 vs. righties and .750 vs lefties for career (.759 vs. .675 last year).
Pena has a reputation of being a good clubhouse guy and a good defender although UZR doesn't agree. A good time to mention that UZR is also getting more and more distractors every day and first base seems to always have been sketchy in their rankings.
As for the peripherals, he strikes out A LOT, over 30% in each of the last three seasons but walks a lot too, near or over 15% over the last four seasons. His BABIP was .222 last season and just .250 the year before (.279 on his career), so hard to say for sure if he's just the victim of bad luck or seriously degrading skills.
But with a change of scenery and leagues, maybe the Cubs can get a good year out of him and either help the team or be a trade chip come July. We'll see how the rest of the offseason shakes out, but I think the deal makes sense for the Cubs in 2011. There's no burden on the Cubs past 2011 and there's plenty of reasons to to believe Pena could bounce back (and plenty of reasons to believe he won't). The risk is low and the upside is high, which is about the most the team can afford this offseason.
Comments
Re: Cubs To Sign Carlos Pena
12/8/10 - Chicago Cubs sign Rob Deer
Re: Cubs To Sign Carlos Pena
I'm happy enough. I'm simply grateful that it wasn't the rumored 2 year and an option, and I am particularly glad that it is only one year. Good point on deferred money possibilities - I hadn't pondered that. 10 million seemed like more than we could spend on a first baseman if Hendry still planned on adding pen help, rotation help, and perhaps some depth, but if some money is deferred, that may help.
I think Pena's solid defensively at first, and that could help long run, even if he's gone after a year, because getting a good glove at first could help Starlin out a bit. I'm happy if Pena means that we don't pursue that rumor floating yesterday of Davis/O'Day for Chirinos/Gorzelanny. I prefer keeping Chirinos over Castillo, and I don't love the idea of shopping Gorzelanny, particularly for that return (hard to think we'll sign a better starter, and a better lefty starter, that is worth all the maneuvering). As a passable cost-controlled lefty starter coming off a passable/decent year, Gorzelanny should be packaged for either a better return, or to help clear some salary. I'm not against a Chris Davis gamble - I just want it at a better price.
At the end of the day, a one year deal was the best possible news (unless we traded for a first baseman). I don't think there was any significant difference between the remaining first baseman on the market.
Re: Cubs To Sign Carlos Pena
my only real issue is overpaying him 2-3m when the budget is nickle/dime'd as it is.
it should be interesting to hear what the deal "really" is and how the loot breaks out.
soriano and pena...we're in for a lot of whiff-leball in 2011.
Re: Cubs To Sign Carlos Pena
personally Davis for Chirinos works just fine for me. Cubs need something around for Ramirez's possible 2012 exit and if Pena has another 2010.
More than a back-up catcher/infielder at least...
Re: Cubs To Sign Carlos Pena
The Cubs seem to give indications that they aren't high on Soto's play behind the plate. Chirinos is probably the more ready catcher (compared to Castillo), and he probably has a better overall bat. I would much rather have that safety net around than Chris Davis. I'm fine with a Davis gamble, but I'm not too enthused that he eventually figures it out.
Who knows, though.
Re: Cubs To Sign Carlos Pena
Chris Davis.......Yikes.....Really?
Re: Cubs To Sign Carlos Pena
they've also given every indication they aren't high on Chirinos.
Re: Cubs To Sign Carlos Pena
how's that? Most indications are that they are fairly high on him and that they like his defense and leadership a ton. After all, he was Starlin's "mentor", and has long been viewed as a potential coach in the system.
Re: Cubs To Sign Carlos Pena
Az Phil has said Soto is coming off a shoulder surgery that may not be healed until the end of May. While Chirinos has interesting skills, it would appear Castillo still has a higher ceiling. I personally would make the Gorzo/Chirinos for O'Day/Davis deal NOW. O'Day could be the bullpen arm they need to put Cashner in the rotation and I don't think Gorzo brings anything that Coleman couldn't at this point..........until Archer/McNutt are ready
Re: Cubs To Sign Carlos Pena
Agree.
Re: Cubs To Sign Carlos Pena
I actually like Castillo. That said, I find it hard to argue Castillo having the high ceiling. He has age on Chirinos, but Chirinos is the better defensive catcher, one of the best in the minors. Chirinos has a better approach at the plate. Castillo has slightly better raw power, but with the holes in his swing, it's hard to see that power being consistently in play.
A middle reliever like O'Day shouldn't impact their decision on Cashner. I understand it might, I just don't think it should. You'd have a hard time convincing me that O'Day is a setup level arm, but if one feels that way, sure, I can buy it.
I'm not against moving Gorzelanny. Just not sure this is the right move.
Re: Cubs To Sign Carlos Pena
I'd liken Chirinos to a Jason Kendall with less speed and Castillo to a Henry Blanco.
Re: Cubs To Sign Carlos Pena
Except by the time Kendall was 27 he was a 3 time all-star and had put up 4 Season's of over .300 and a .294 batting average up.
People forget just how good Jason Kendall was when he first came up with the Pirates. The fact that he is completely average at 37 seems to skew those memories.
Re: Cubs To Sign Carlos Pena
I think that he'd hit .300 with 30 doubles and 12 HR's given the chance.
Re: Cubs To Sign Carlos Pena
didn't get a call-up last year, but Castillo did, slow to move him up, not protected in Rule 5 last season, resigned Koyie Hill, AZ Phil's reports that they see him as a coach more than a player (paraphrasing).
He's a Stockstil guy and I'm sure there are some prejudices there in the organization but I don't get a sense they see him as anymore than utility guy.
could be wrong...
Re: Cubs To Sign Carlos Pena
Okay ... I'd counter -
a) There was no need to make an additional call-up/40 man move when Castillo wasn't getting enough time as is.
b) Koyie Hill probably reflects more on the situation with Soto and the pitching staff than it does Chirinos.
c) Scouting reports from BA and other places note the strong improvement and how more and more, people are seeing him as a possible late-blooming catcher who has a chance to be a starter.
Re: Cubs To Sign Carlos Pena
hopefully quade puts pena and soriano next to each other so cubs can set a record for runners stranded on base. :)
Re: Cubs To Sign Carlos Pena
After years of being about the worst org in baseball for catchers, it would seem now the tables have turned and the Cubs are deeper at catcher than any team around. Soto, Castillo, Chirinos, Clevenger, Brenly--that's a lot of decent catching talent. Problem is, there isn't enough room at the inn for all of them, what say you about their likely 2011 assignments, AZ Phil?
It sure looks like the Cubs will go (yet again) with Koyie Hill as backup catcher, why I have no idea. If Brenly is ready to move up to AA, Clevenger would seem to be screwed, and I don't know how Chirinos and Castillo could split time in AAA to a degree that gives either enough PT to further develop their skills.
So are the Cubs FORCED to trade one of Chirinos or Castillo this winter? This is what irks me to no end about keeping Hill around. Why the Koyie love? It's ridiculous.
As for Pena, meh. $10MM is too much, but it ain't my money.
Re: Cubs To Sign Carlos Pena
Let's wait on Rule 5. There's still a chance Clevenger could be selected. That said, if I had to take a guess right now, I'd go
AAA - Chirinos/Castillo/Robinson
AA - Clevenger/Brenly
A+ - maybe Flores/Mota
A - Gibbs/uh ... Guevara? Noble? Vigurs?
of those, though, Chirinos, IMO, is the only one that has a chance to be a starting backstop (and even then, he might be better suited as a backup backstop). I've always liked Castillo more than many Cubs followers, but everything about Welington and Clevenger sounds like backup backstop material. With Soto's defense still being questioned, plus the fact that he's going to be extremely costly in arbitration at an age when many catchers can start to show signs of wearing down (he'll be 28 next year, and while still be in arb for a couple more years), I'd rather keep Chirinos around.
Clevenger really should be in AAA, but there's no way they can split the AB's enough. If Clevenger is selected Rule 5, my guess is ... maybe Mota goes to AA, or maybe Chris Robinson, more of a system asset than a prospect, gets shifted down. Gibbs should ditch switch-hitting, which might give him a better chance to develop into a starting backstop.
As for Koyie, nothing against him, but I was fine letting him go. That said, if the Cubs are down on Soto's defense, then Koyie being around makes some sense (if they don't love Soto enough defensively, tough to turn it over to a kid without a veteran like Hill in place). I could see Chirinos or Castillo have a great spring and perhaps convince them to let Koyie go from the 25 man.
Re: Cubs To Sign Carlos Pena
Submitted by Jim Hickmans Bat on Wed, 12/08/2010 - 6:06am.
After years of being about the worst org in baseball for catchers, it would seem now the tables have turned and the Cubs are deeper at catcher than any team around. Soto, Castillo, Chirinos, Clevenger, Brenly--that's a lot of decent catching talent. Problem is, there isn't enough room at the inn for all of them, what say you about their likely 2011 assignments, AZ Phil?
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JIM H: Barring a trade or losing a catcher in the Rule 5 Draft or an unforseen injury, I would predict this as of right now:
If Geovany Soto's shoulder is healthy enough for him to handle the #1 load, then Soto and Koyie Hill will be the only two catchers on the Cubs MLB Opening Day roster, Welington Castillo, Robinson Chirinos, and Steve Cleveger will be at AAA (with Chirinos and Clevenger also playing 1B-3B), Michael Brenly, Chris Robinson, and Blake Lalli will be at AA (with Robinson mentoring Brenly and Lalli mainly playing 1B), Luis Flores, Jose Guevara (or a FA TBD), and Jonathan Mota will be at Daytona (with Mota also the D-Cubs #1 back-up 2B-SS-3B), Micah Gibbs and Chad Noble will be at Peoria, and Sergio Burruel, Carlos Romero, Max Kwan, Jeff Vigurs, Engel Santana, and Alberto Mineo will be left at Fitch Park (EXST).
If Soto can't throw well enough to be a catcher (ast least to begin the season0< then I would think Castillo and K. Hill would share the back-stop job, Chirinos and Clevenger would be the catchers at Tiowa, and everyting else would be the saame.
The Cubs would probably like to re-sign one of their two Rule 55 minor league FA catchers (Mark Reed or Mario Mercedes) to share the catchers job at Daytona with Luis Florse, but both might want to try to find a better opportunity in another organization, especially Mark Reed, who should be at AA in 2011, but probably would not be if her returns to the Cubs. Mercedes is more of an organizational guy who could be developed into a mentor-coach, so of the two, I would think Mercedes is more-likely to come back and play at Daytona in 2011.
Re: Cubs To Sign Carlos Pena
Looking at this team, who the hell leads off? Is it a platoon of Dewitt and Baker? Maybe Sori will lead off again.
Re: Cubs To Sign Carlos Pena
I'd guess Fukudome v. righties, Baker v. lefties.
Re: Cubs To Sign Carlos Pena
Is Fukudome going to get the PT to do that? By most accounts (Bruce Miles has indicated this I think), the Cubs are going to let Colvin run with it at a position, and now, that position is RF. My guess is that whoever mans 2nd will lead off.
Re: Cubs To Sign Carlos Pena
Yeah, I just tried to write a good lineup v. righties, and it's definitely hard to stay defensively coherent, offensively balanced, and give everyone their time off. The other thing about this team is that no one jumps up and screams #3 hitter. If Lou was still here, it'd be Byrd, but I'd be more inclined to put (healthy productive) Ramirez there and get into the power section a little quicker.
Vs. lefties, this team's lineup actually doesn't look too shabby on paper: Baker, Castro, Ramirez, Pena, Soriano, Soto, Colvin, Byrd
Re: Cubs To Sign Carlos Pena
that was my concern this offseason as well. At some point, they need to change the lineup structure and find a top of the order bat. If, as expected, the OF is Soriano/Byrd/Colvin for the most part, that leaves MI options to lead off. I don't love the idea of Castro leading off, and it doesn't seem like we'll have enough money to find a leadoff 2nd baseman.
Re: Cubs To Sign Carlos Pena
If they trade Fukudome, then maybe Guyer makes the team, and there will be a lot of days when you will be tempted to sit Soriano or Byrd and let Guyer lead off. (Thirty SBs, three CSs.)
Re: Cubs To Sign Carlos Pena
Maybe they are looking at fielder or pujlos in 2011.
Any big name 3rd baseman in 2011?
Vitters will probably get one of the corner spots.
Re: Cubs To Sign Carlos Pena
Vitters in 2011? Or Vitters in 2012? Let's not get too far ahead. Let him consolidate and have a big year in AA. Even if he does, a best case timeline puts him more mid-2012 than beginning, so they should have another plan in place.
I also wouldn't be surprised if some of the speculation about Vitters becoming a full-time first baseman (and being viewed as the first baseman of the future) comes true.
Re: Cubs To Sign Carlos Pena
The Cubs have downplayed this. The majority of his on-the-field work has been at 3B as he has been anointed the A-Ram replacement. However, AZ PHIL has pointed out continually that he struggles with his defense there at times. I am hoping he gets it together big time this year in the field. He is a "natural" hitter, and I believe that part of his game will continue to improve.
But it would be sad to realize that we drafted a 21 year-old DH.
Re: Cubs To Sign Carlos Pena
There's places to go down the defensive spectrum from third that aren't DH (Namely left and first) so I wouldn't worry about that too much.
Whether he's going to be able to hit is now up in the air, though.
I disagree that with Toon's comment that best case puts him in the majors mid 2012. Best case puts him in the majors in September of this year. You have to go way back to 2010 to find a time the Cubs promoted an infielder from AA to the majors mid season.
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