Extending Mr. Hendricks

by Moshe W.

Kyle Hendricks will be aggressively targeted by the Cubs for an extension this offseason. 

Hendricks was not a top draft pick (8^th round, 2011) and only received a $125k signing bonus. His career earnings to date are a respectable, but not life altering, $2m. As a pitcher, Hendricks knows he is always one bad injury away from losing everything. Combine that with the low career earnings total, and Hendricks is likely interested in some serious guaranteed money, even if it does entail giving the Cubs a little discount. 

So, what might that extension look like?

I dug around for comparable pitchers who have signed recent extensions, to establish a market rate for Hendricks. The closest comparison to my eye is division rival Carlos Martinez. Some other potential comparisons are Corey Kluber and Chase Anderson. The table below compares these three to Hendricks using their career numbers as of the date they signed the extensions. 

Name	Age	bWAR	fWAR	ERA	Serv. time	Arbitration est	Contract (all options are team opts)
Hendricks	28	13.2	11.8	2.94	3.081	$4.9m	NA
Martinez	24	9.3	8.3	3.33	3.073	$5.3m	5yr/$51m + $17m & $18m opts
Kluber	28	8.2	10.8	3.34	2.074	NA	5yr/$38.5m + $13. & $14.5 opts
Anderson	30	6.8	6.2	3.87	3.146	Not released	2yr/$11.5m + $8.5 & $9.5m opts

To my eye, Martinez is the closest comp. Anderson’s career numbers are far below Hendricks. Meanwhile, Kluber was a full year away from arbitration when he signed his deal, which renders financial comparison difficult. Martinez, though, is reasonably close to Hendricks in WAR, ERA, and service time. His slightly lower career stats are offset by his younger age. He also had a very similar arbitration estimate prior to signing.

If we use Martinez as a comparison, we might expect Hendricks to sign a five-year deal, perhaps in the $50-55m range, with two option years both in the $17-19m range. Yet Hendricks is older than Martinez, and may want either a shorter term—so he can get one shot at free agency before age 35—or a longer deal, knowing this is his one opportunity to cash in. My guess is shorter. The shortest deal the Cubs would accept would be four years because the 4^th year is 2021, the same year the Cubs have final control over many of their key position players. If we remove the 5^th year of Martinez’s deal, we get a four year, $40m deal. That deal would guarantee Hendricks serious money but allow him to hit free agency at age 32. I could see that happening. Yet the Cubs are unlikely to guarantee all that money to get only one extra year of control. I still think they will push for a five-year deal.

That said, here are three potential Hendricks extension options, in order of likelihood:

1) 5yr/$55m + one (or two) $18m team options.

2) 4yr/$40m.

3) 6yr/$70m + $19m & $20m team options.