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Sabermetrics
Cubs OPD Rankings: One Stat Will Rule Them All
This is a couple of weeks old, but Chris Dial at Baseball Think Factory came out with a huge spreadsheet rating every player in the league on offense and defense with the appropriately named metric OPD (Offense Plus Defense). It does not take into account baserunning though, and be aware that players are compared to those who play the same position. He briefly explains the methodology in that link and a further description of the defense can be found here. I didn't spend a lot of time assessing the merits of his system, but it seems solid enough. It tells me Albert Pujols and Joe Mauer were the best players in their respective leagues last year and well that certainly passes the smell test, although by no means is it the ONE stat that will settle every argument from now until the end of days.
The full Google spreadsheet can be found at this link and I've listed the Cubs team ratings and individual players below. It would have been nice to put a ranking next to each player so I didn't have to count them out, which I'm not going to do for every player, but I'll let you know that Soto was 17th in the NL and DeRosa 18th. The numbers are runs relative to average, not replacement or wins, and of course, a positive number is above average, negative is below average.The general sabermetrician's rule of thumb is that 10-12 runs is good for a win.
MoneyCare Starring Billy Beane
It looks like Michael Lewis may have his next besteller, a team of doctors take on the system by using a statistical approach to health care.
So what the hell am I talking about?
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Mmmm...Secret Sauce
One of the many toys at Baseball Prospectus is something they call "Secret Sauce". BP has successfully cracked the code to playoff success and nailed the last 45 World Series winners. What? How have you never heard of this amazing prediction system? Because I made that last part up, but nevertheless a fun tool to look at as we await our playoff opponent.
I looked back through 2000 and BP did predict three World Series winners and six of the 16 participants in the World Series correct. You scoff, but what's your playoff prediction success rate?
The formula is simple enough and rather intuitive to what is commonly believed among baseball folks that power pitching, a good closer and good defense wins in the playoffs. In this case, BP uses FRAA (Fielding Runs Above Average), EqK9 (Equivalent Strikeout Rates per 9 innings) and WXRL (Win above Replacement Pitcher for the team's closer) and comes up with a score.
Their predictions and the 2008 rankings after the jump.
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Cubs Appear Ripe for "Miracle" Season (in 1984)
No, this isn't a bold Ryan Dempster-like statement about the Cubs 2008 chances. We're going to hop into the DeLorean we have sitting around here at the sprawling TCR headquarters and visit my all-time favorite Cubs team - the 1984 ballcub.
I'm sure I'm not the only one out there who can point to the 1984 Cubs as the reason why they're still Cubs fans today. As a young nine-year old living in the Northwest suburbs of Chicago, I had not yet quite sworn my life-debt to either Chicago team. If anything I was leaning towards the White Sox as they had just come off of a successful 1983 season and Dad G. fancied himself more a White Sox fan over the Cubs. Plus me and my brother scored like 8 White Sox helmets on a giveaway day the year before and that was kind of cool.
Then 1984 hit and the Cubs-love swept through Chicago. The mix of the "Daily Double", WGN, Harry Caray and being able to catch the end of most Cubs homes games right when I got home for school was enough to sway me to the Northsiders.
But, this piece isn't about my reasons for being a Cubs fan, rather about one man's bold prediction.
Recent comments
Arizona Phil (view)
Childersb3: Miguel Cruz walked six in 1.2 IP in his last start, so I guess he is improving. Wilme Mora also walked six in one of his appearances a week or two ago, and one or two others have walked five. I don't know what would be the most I have ever seen a pitcher throw in a game out here, because the manager / pitching coach usually gets the pitcher out of the game if it gets too ridiculous.
As for the attendance, probably about 20 of the 25 were early arrivals for the Savannah Bananas game who came over to Field # 1 to see what was going on, and once they saw all the bases on balls (12 walks by Cubs pitchers and four by Angels pitchers) they ran away screaming. I'm used to it so it didn't bother me that much.
Childersb3 (view)
Jed has added Teheran, Tyranski, Kissaki, and now Straily and Nico Zeglin today.
Zeglin is 24 yrs old. Pitched well at Long Beach St in '23 and well in some Indy Ball.
They also added Reilly and Viets in late ST.
Have to search for MiLB arm depth anywhere you can and at all times!!!
Childersb3 (view)
25 in Attendance!!!
Phil, is that a backfield record?
Also, 6 BBs for Cruz in 2 IP. What's the most walks you've seen in one EXT ST outing that you can recall?
TarzanJoeWallis (view)
He has a pulse. Apparently that’s the only requirement at this point.
crunch (view)
cubs sign dan straily...for some reason. minor league deal.
welcome back.
zac rosscup is down in mexico trying to make it happen...maybe they could throw him a contract, too. junior lake is his teammate. shore up a bunch of holes with some washups.
fullykräusened (view)
The great thing about going to live sports events is you don't know if you're going to see something historic. Today I went to the Cub game, after putting the liner back in my coat and fishing my Cubs knit hat out of the closet. I needed all that- my seats are in the upper deck, left, so the east wind was in my face. Both teams failed to capitalize on good situations, but both starters did a good job to accomplish this. So, we go to the bottom of the sixth inning. The Cubs tie it up, and then Pete Crow-Armstrong comes up. We all know he would still be in AAA if not for injuries, and future Hall-of-Famer Justin Verlander absolutely carved up the young fellow up in his first two plate appearances. So this time he hits a fly ball. The wind was blowing in and had suppressed several strong fly balls- including a rocket off Altuve's bat that Canario hauled in (does anybody else remind me of Jorge Soler?) , but the ball kept carrying and carrying. 107mph, legit angle and carry. The crowd went nuts, the dugout went nuts. Maybe, just maybe, I saw the first homer from a long-term Cub.
TarzanJoeWallis (view)
Which was my original premise. They won the trades but lost their souls. They no longer employ the Cardinal way which had been so successful for so long.
crunch (view)
STL traded away a lot of minor league talent that went on to do nothing in the arenado + goldschmidt trades. neither guy blocked any of their minor league talent in the pipeline, too. that's ideal places to add talent.
TarzanJoeWallis (view)
Natural cycle of baseball. Pitching makes adjustments in approach to counter a hot young rookie. Now it’s time for Busch and his coaches to counter those adjustments. Busch is very good and will figure it out, I think sooner than later.
TarzanJoeWallis (view)
In 2020, the pandemic year and the year before they acquired Arenado, the Cardinals finished second and were a playoff team. Of the 12 batters with 100 plate appearances, 8 of them were home grown. Every member of the starting rotation (if you include Wainwright) and all but one of the significant relievers were home grown. While there have been a relative handful of very good trades interspersed which have been mentioned, player development had been their predominant pattern for decades - ever since I became an aware fan in the ‘70’s
The Arenado deal was not a deal made out of dire need or desperation. It was a splashy, headline making deal for a perennial playoff team intended to be the one piece that brought the Cardinals from a very good team to a World Series contender. They have continued to wheel and deal and have been in a slide ever since. I stand by my supposition that that deal marked a notable turning point within the organization. They broke what had been a very successful formula for a very long time.