Sabermetrics

Cubs OPD Rankings: One Stat Will Rule Them All

This is a couple of weeks old, but Chris Dial at Baseball Think Factory came out with a huge spreadsheet rating every player in the league on offense and defense with the appropriately named metric OPD (Offense Plus Defense). It does not take into account baserunning though, and be aware that players are compared to those who play the same position.  He briefly explains the methodology in that link and a further description of the defense can be found here. I didn't spend a lot of time assessing the merits of his system, but it seems solid enough. It tells me Albert Pujols and Joe Mauer were the best players in their respective leagues last year and well that certainly passes the smell test, although by no means is it the ONE stat that will settle every argument from now until the end of days.

The full Google spreadsheet can be found at this link and I've listed the Cubs team ratings and individual players below. It would have been nice to put a ranking next to each player so I didn't have to count them out, which I'm not going to do for every player, but I'll let you know that Soto was 17th in the NL and DeRosa 18th. The numbers are runs relative to average, not replacement or wins, and of course, a positive number is above average, negative is below average.The general sabermetrician's rule of thumb is that 10-12 runs is good for a win.

Mmmm...Secret Sauce

One of the many toys at Baseball Prospectus is something they call "Secret Sauce". BP has successfully cracked the code to playoff success and nailed the last 45 World Series winners. What? How have you never heard of this amazing prediction system? Because I made that last part up, but nevertheless a fun tool to look at as we await our playoff opponent.

I looked back through 2000 and BP did predict three World Series winners and six of the 16 participants in the World Series correct. You scoff, but what's your playoff prediction success rate?

The formula is simple enough and rather intuitive to what is commonly believed among baseball folks that power pitching, a good closer and good defense wins in the playoffs. In this case, BP uses FRAA (Fielding Runs Above Average), EqK9 (Equivalent Strikeout Rates per 9 innings) and WXRL (Win above Replacement Pitcher for the team's closer) and comes up with a score.

Their predictions and the 2008 rankings after the jump.

Cubs Appear Ripe for "Miracle" Season (in 1984)

No, this isn't a bold Ryan Dempster-like statement about the Cubs 2008 chances. We're going to hop into the DeLorean we have sitting around here at the sprawling TCR headquarters and visit my all-time favorite Cubs team - the 1984 ballcub.


I'm sure I'm not the only one out there who can point to the 1984 Cubs as the reason why they're still Cubs fans today. As a young nine-year old living in the Northwest suburbs of Chicago, I had not yet quite sworn my life-debt to either Chicago team. If anything I was leaning towards the White Sox as they had just come off of a successful 1983 season and Dad G. fancied himself more a White Sox fan over the Cubs. Plus me and my brother scored like 8 White Sox helmets on a giveaway day the year before and that was kind of cool.

Then 1984 hit and the Cubs-love swept through Chicago. The mix of the "Daily Double", WGN, Harry Caray and being able to catch the end of most Cubs homes games right when I got home for school was enough to sway me to the Northsiders.

But, this piece isn't about my reasons for being a Cubs fan, rather about one man's bold prediction.

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  • Objectively true. Scherzer's FIP is almost a half point higher than his ERA, mostly I deduce because his BABIP is .249 so something ridiculous like that. It's not like the guy can't be scored on, but when I watch him, I sometimes feel that he's the most in control of the game moving around him.

    John Beasley 31 min 42 sec ago view
  • Certainly might be the hottest pitcher right now, but he's behind a few pitchers by most objective full season standards.

    Rob G. 3 hours 46 min ago view
  • Well noted. You may also note that Lester's Career Playoff ERA is almost a full point lower, and he has a lower WHIP as well.

    Can't have everything, I guess.

    The E-Man 8 hours 52 min ago view
  • i'm happy enough with the Lester signing, but Scherzer has more than earned the extra money so far. If he was in the rotation instead of Lester, this team would feel practically bulletproof to me.

    Blaspheme maybe, but I think Scherzer is the best pitcher in the NL right now.

    John Beasley 9 hours 43 min ago view
  • Maddon was pimping Russell for Gold Glove honors recently as a manager should do...

    Here's some defensive numbers:

    Fangraphs

    1. Crawford (22.2)
    2. Seager (16.9)
    3. Cozart (14.2)
    4. Hechavarria (13.5)
    5. Russell (12.4)

    Baseball Reference

    1. B. Crawford 2.3
    2. Russell 2.0
    3. Hechavarria 1.7
    4. N. Ahmed 1.6
    5. Z. Cozart 1.5

    .....

    13.C. Seager 0.7

    Traditional stats

    Crawford

    .978 FP, 11 E, 333 A, 162 PO, 562 Chances, 4.27 RF, 72 DP Turned

    Russell

    Rob G. 10 hours 17 min ago view
  • Let me guess: Land of Contusion? Puppet Prez Reagan mistakenly blows the world up due to a bum thumb?

    Eric S 13 hours 11 min ago view
  • Favorite Genesis video

    https://youtu.be/QHmH1xQ2Pf4

    jacos 13 hours 41 min ago view
  • Twitterverse reporting that Almora's examination by a hand specialist went okay, it's still just a hand contusion.

    Eric S 14 hours 21 min ago view
  • Attaboy, Eloy! Jimenez named Midwest League MVP and Best Prospect.

    Gonzalez and Morrison also honored.

    VirginiaPhil 19 hours 41 min ago view
  • QuietMan 1 day 5 hours ago view
  • FYI, formatting of the web page is weird.

    JoePepitone 1 day 8 hours ago view
  • Now who can argue with that? I think we're all indebted to Gabby Johnson for clearly stating what needed to be said. I'm particularly glad that these lovely children were here today to hear that speech. Not only was it authentic frontier gibberish, it expressed a courage little seen in this day and age.

    Jackstraw 1 day 8 hours ago view
  • White Sox new stadium name w apropos logo

    https://mobile.twitter.com/SportsCenter/status/768...

    jacos 1 day 9 hours ago view
  • it was between that and "more like the CRUNCH REALLY EARLY AM REPORTER because i'm gonna c.r.e.am all over this place."

    i chose the classy route.

    crunch 1 day 9 hours ago view
  • Rob G. 1 day 9 hours ago view
  • that was the 2nd greatest piece of performance art since Donald Trump's campaign

    Rob G. 1 day 9 hours ago view