Medical Sabermetrics

MAJOR NEWS UPDATE:

Lou Piniella will resign after today's game vs Atlanta. His mother's health has not improved and instead of going the medical leave of absence route again, he's handing over the managerial chores to...THE FORMER IOWA CUB MANAGER... drumroll, please...[[[Mike Quade]]]. Pfffft.


There is a segment of the news reporters who actually cover medical meetings and try their hand at using medical lingo on their readers. I found this article online (and several other sources picked it up including the LA Times) but it originates from a news feed that the American Orthopaedic Society for Sports Medicine provided after their 2010 annual meeting from Providence, RI.

This is clearly an epidemiologic study. I'm thinking medical sabermetrics is a better term.

The study was based on data from MLB's disabled list published online data from 2002-2008, so it didn't really need a doctor to do this, it probably was done by a doctor who is a baseball junkie. Hmmm.

Dr. (and Major) Matthew Posner took the raw information and tabulated the frequency and distribution of injuries by anatomic site, position, AL vs NL and time of season (before or after the All-Star break). Nicely done. Clean and simple.

"Even though baseball is a passion of many people and our national pastime, there is very little information about the epidemiology, characteristics or distribution of injuries in Major League Baseball,” said Maj., Matthew Posner, MD, orthopaedic surgeon at the William Beaumont Army Medical Center in El Paso, Texas. “This study attempts to evaluate Major League injuries over the period of six years.”

On to Dr. Posner's findings after the jump...

The raw data:

•3,072 players were placed on the disabled list from the 2002 season through 2008, an average of 438.9 per year.

•The high during the period was 516 in 2008, and the low was 388 in 2005.

The major findings: Arms>Legs>Backs>Core (ribs/abdomenals)

•51.4% of all injuries during the period were to the upper extremities.
•30.6% were to lower extremities.
•7.4% were back injuries.
•4.3% were injuries to core muscles.

Next finding, pitchers are fragile: D'oh, but impressive considering there is an 8:1 ratio of fielders:pitchers during games. Of course some injuries don't happen during games (see Clint Barmes inury). I'd love to see stats for catchers or a breakdown of fielders who get injured batting or baserunning. The catcher data was apparently, not in the study. The batting/baserunning data would take a little more research outside of a DL list.

•Pitchers spent a greater proportion of days on the disability list, 62.4%, compared to 37.6% for fielders.

The obvious is verified, but now it's quantified: Pitchers tend to hurt their arms!

•Pitchers accounted for 67% of upper extremity injuries, compared to
fielders, who had more lower extremity injuries and injuries to other
regions.
•Fielders had a greater proportion of lower extremity injures, 47.5% compared to 16.9% for pitchers.

NL vs AL: Identical patterns.

•National League players injured their upper extremities 51.7 percent of
the time, lower extremities 30.7 percent and other anatomic regions 17.7
percent.
•American League players injured their upper extremities 51.1 percent of
the time, lower extremities 30.5 percent and other anatomic regions 18.4
percent, according to the study.

Timing of Injury: Mostly before the All-Star Break (74.4%)

•79% of shoulder and elbow injuries happened before the All-Star Break
•74.8% of the other injuries (groin, hamstrings, quads, trunk/core)
before the A-S game.
•Pitchers sustained 76.5% and fielders sustained 71.7% of their total respective injuries prior to the All-Star game.

I just might be crazy enough to build on Dr. Posner's work and do a Cub specific review of that readily available DL data (sounds like an off season project...although this entire season has been an off-season). That should be interesting in light of these published league norms to compare to.

I have followed Baseball Prospectus' Will Carroll epidemiologic (medical sabermetrics?) work.  He gives out the now annual Dick Martin Award to the best team medical staff (last recipient was the Phillies, Cubs now in the top one-third!). In a previous TCR article, The Cubs Trainer vs. The Secretive Nature of the Industry, I detailed the Cubs head trainer (yes, he works on all body parts), Mark O'Neal in the context of the BP Dick Martin award. I also wrote about the 2010 Cubs in the context of Will Carroll's health report ratings and the data that he tracks, Running a Yellow Light.

Baseball prospectus posted an excellent chart for the 2009 season, days lost to injury (sabermetrically speaking, D-LOIN?) vs salary lost, as a percentage of total team payroll (S-LOIN?).

The award is based on a number of factors, including but not limited to quantitative measures such as days lost to the DL, dollars lost to the DL, percentage of payroll lost to the DL, and year-over-year improvements and trends regarding these numbers.

Here's BP's charts for the 2004 and  2005 seasons. The Cubs were in the bottom half back then. It was in the black hole center of the Wood/Prior days.

Maybe that's one more thing Tom Ricketts should put on Ari Kaplan's To-Do list (Ricketts hired Kaplan as Cub manager of statistical analysis this past June).

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Re: Medical Sabermetrics

So long Lou todays game is his last

Mike Quade your up next.

Re: Medical Sabermetrics

┌∩┐(◣_◢)┌∩┐

Re: Medical Sabermetrics

here's the mlb.com link, note it's not Carrie Muskat writing. It seems Lou's mom is very ill, if it's related to the other LOA.

http://cubs.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=2010...

As many know, the several weeks since that announcement was made have been very difficult on a family level, requiring two leaves of absence from the club. While I fully intended to manage this club the rest of the season, a family situation at home now requires my full attention."

Re: Medical Sabermetrics

I don't want to sound insensitive...I wish the best for his mom...but this is a great excuse for Lou to leave. No admittance of failure or exhaustion or complete and utter apathy. Good riddance to Lou and good health to his mom.

Re: Medical Sabermetrics

I can't wait for Quade's first shitty lineup.

Re: Medical Sabermetrics

I can't wait for 2011 2012

Re: Medical Sabermetrics

Poor Lou. First he sat by watching his team die. Then he sat through watching his career die. Now he's heading home to watch his mother die. Rough year.

Re: Medical Sabermetrics

lou quits on a team...what's new.

hope his ma pulls though, though...it's been a rough year from his family to his job and probably points in between, too.

im sure he'd rather not go out like this...i think.

Re: Medical Sabermetrics

Pinella's last lineup ... leadoff hitter's OBP is the same as the pitcher's. Good times. Gonna miss you, buddy.

Re: Medical Sabermetrics

Hendry on why Quade. Trammell out as managerial candidate...and some coaching moving chairs.

http://www.suntimes.com/sports/baseball/cubs/...

General manager Jim Hendry chose Quade over bench coach Alan Trammell, who had been serving as acting manager during several Piniella absences this summer, because he will not consider Trammell to be Piniella’s permanent replacement. Hendry said Quade will be a candidate.

``I made the decision [Saturday],’’ Hendry said of selecting Quade. ``He’s been with us quite a while. He has experience and knows our [young] players. I feel he’ll be good at it.’’

Hendry said the rest of the coaching staff will remain intact through this season with first base coach Ivan DeJesus moving to third base coaching duties. Trammell, who managed the Detroit Tigers, will remain as bench coach as well. A roving minor league instructor will be added to the staff to fill Quade’s coaching vacancy.

Re: Medical Sabermetrics

Mike Quade is just a bald Bruce Kimm.

Re: Medical Sabermetrics

He's always looked sort of like Tooter Turtle to me.

http://www.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://cd...

Re: Medical Sabermetrics

"A roving minor league instructor will be added to the staff to fill Quade’s coaching vacancy."
---
Things that make you say, hmmmm.

Roving instructors. The cubs currently have three (info courtesy of Az Phil, see link)

1) Marty Pevey, roving catching instructor

2) Franklin Font - Roving Infield & Bunting Instructor

3) Bob Dernier, roving OF and Baserunning instructor...and half of the 1984 "Daily Double"

http://www.thecubreporter.com/2010/02/26/i-go...

Re: Medical Sabermetrics

dernier deserves it, imo...his work is a couple weeks from being over anyway.

Re: Medical Sabermetrics

Hendry interviewed by Len/Bob on telecast. (not quotes)

Hendry watched Lou play HS basketball when JH was 6 yrs old.

Len: What legacy does JH: Lou leave? JH: 2007 season was really good and we had the best team in 2008. It's a good year if we get in to the playoffs and not if we don't.

BB: Lou helped raise the expectations of the fans/club to get into the playoffs.

Len asked JH to comment on the DLee era. JH: DLee wanted to be in the lineup every day. Old school, great guy

Len asked about Quade. JH: We're not looking at this just to play it out. Randy Bush and I have alot to learn about this club. Trammell because he wasn't being tabbed to interim manage, to be fair to him, was told he's not a candidate to manage next year.

Re: Medical Sabermetrics

Us to JH: Have you freshened up your resume? Where's your key for the executive bathroom?

Re: Medical Sabermetrics

Re: Medical Sabermetrics

mike minor with 9Ks through 3.1ip

fuck this team.

Re: Medical Sabermetrics

though absolutely unrelated i think this sums up this season in a nutshell...somehow...maybe not.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e6eMW0cEXY0

...also, minor with 12Ks through 6ip and he's most likely done

Re: Medical Sabermetrics

At first, I couldn't understand what that video would have to do with the Cubs' season. After watching, it's clearly an appropriate metaphor.

Starlin Castro is the guy with the baby blue Stratocaster.

Re: Medical Sabermetrics

Minor holding the Cubs down isn't a surprise. It seems that anytime we see a pitcher for the first time, they shut us down, especially lefties, for some reason. That was going on all the way back when Dusty was the manager. At least the team doesn't want to shock Lou into a heart attack and do something different on his last day.

Re: fuck this team

you need rest

Re: Medical Sabermetrics

i need lots of things

Re: Medical Sabermetrics

Streaky and Freaky.

Aram with two hits (and 4 multi-hit games in a row) has upped his batting average to .242, with Soriano at .258 I'm thinkin' that Ramirez will wind up with a higher BA than Sori.

Ugly season. Some stats just don't tell the real story.

Re: Medical Sabermetrics

holy crap this team is fundamentally mindcrapping all over the place.

no amount of extra fielding practice, laps, or benching can teach someone something they've known since highschool. ugggg....

Re: Medical Sabermetrics

Soriano ran in for that ball like his feet were in cement, which isn't a bad idea. Time to take him fishing on Lake Michigan.

Re: Medical Sabermetrics

It's 13-3 and the Cubs are playing the infield in.

Re: Medical Sabermetrics

Soriano's stone glove drops another two out fly ball (Alex Gonzalez) in a diving attempt, then Cubbery salute's the Lou Piniella era when they get the hitter/runner (Alex Gonzalez) in a pickle between 1st and 2nd, while the runner at 3rd (Melky Cabrera) cruises home for the third run on the play. 9-3 Bravos.

Koyie Hill approves.

Re: Medical Sabermetrics

The organist should play the Benny Hill music anytime the ball is hit in play.

Watching the replay on DLee's first "hit" as a Brave, I really think ARam gave him a gift and over acted.

Re: Medical Sabermetrics

2010 cubs bullpen...

best bullpen in baseball...or best bullpen ever?

dlee with a 3 run double...13-3...enjoy your retirement, lou...here's your parting gift.

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