MAJOR NEWS UPDATE:
Lou Piniella will resign after today's game vs Atlanta. His mother's health has not improved and instead of going the medical leave of absence route again, he's handing over the managerial chores to...THE FORMER IOWA CUB MANAGER... drumroll, please...[[[Mike Quade]]]. Pfffft.
There is a segment of the news reporters who actually cover medical meetings and try their hand at using medical lingo on their readers. I found this article online (and several other sources picked it up including the LA Times) but it originates from a news feed that the American Orthopaedic Society for Sports Medicine provided after their 2010 annual meeting from Providence, RI.
This is clearly an epidemiologic study. I'm thinking medical sabermetrics is a better term.
The study was based on data from MLB's disabled list published online data from 2002-2008, so it didn't really need a doctor to do this, it probably was done by a doctor who is a baseball junkie. Hmmm.
Dr. (and Major) Matthew Posner took the raw information and tabulated the frequency and distribution of injuries by anatomic site, position, AL vs NL and time of season (before or after the All-Star break). Nicely done. Clean and simple.
"Even though baseball is a passion of many people and our national pastime, there is very little information about the epidemiology, characteristics or distribution of injuries in Major League Baseball,” said Maj., Matthew Posner, MD, orthopaedic surgeon at the William Beaumont Army Medical Center in El Paso, Texas. “This study attempts to evaluate Major League injuries over the period of six years.”
On to Dr. Posner's findings after the jump...
The raw data:
|•3,072 players were placed on the disabled list from the 2002 season through 2008, an average of 438.9 per year.|
•The high during the period was 516 in 2008, and the low was 388 in 2005.
The major findings: Arms>Legs>Backs>Core (ribs/abdomenals)
|•51.4% of all injuries during the period were to the upper extremities.|
|•30.6% were to lower extremities.|
|•7.4% were back injuries.|
|•4.3% were injuries to core muscles.|
Next finding, pitchers are fragile: D'oh, but impressive considering there is an 8:1 ratio of fielders:pitchers during games. Of course some injuries don't happen during games (see Clint Barmes inury). I'd love to see stats for catchers or a breakdown of fielders who get injured batting or baserunning. The catcher data was apparently, not in the study. The batting/baserunning data would take a little more research outside of a DL list.
|•Pitchers spent a greater proportion of days on the disability list, 62.4%, compared to 37.6% for fielders.|
The obvious is verified, but now it's quantified: Pitchers tend to hurt their arms!
|•Pitchers accounted for 67% of upper extremity injuries, compared to
fielders, who had more lower extremity injuries and injuries to other
|•Fielders had a greater proportion of lower extremity injures, 47.5% compared to 16.9% for pitchers.|
NL vs AL: Identical patterns.
|•National League players injured their upper extremities 51.7 percent of
the time, lower extremities 30.7 percent and other anatomic regions 17.7
|•American League players injured their upper extremities 51.1 percent of
the time, lower extremities 30.5 percent and other anatomic regions 18.4
percent, according to the study.
Timing of Injury: Mostly before the All-Star Break (74.4%)
|•79% of shoulder and elbow injuries happened before the All-Star Break|
|•74.8% of the other injuries (groin, hamstrings, quads, trunk/core)
before the A-S game.
|•Pitchers sustained 76.5% and fielders sustained 71.7% of their total respective injuries prior to the All-Star game.|
I just might be crazy enough to build on Dr. Posner's work and do a Cub specific review of that readily available DL data (sounds like an off season project...although this entire season has been an off-season). That should be interesting in light of these published league norms to compare to.
I have followed Baseball Prospectus' Will Carroll epidemiologic (medical sabermetrics?) work. He gives out the now annual Dick Martin Award to the best team medical staff (last recipient was the Phillies, Cubs now in the top one-third!). In a previous TCR article, The Cubs Trainer vs. The Secretive Nature of the Industry, I detailed the Cubs head trainer (yes, he works on all body parts), Mark O'Neal in the context of the BP Dick Martin award. I also wrote about the 2010 Cubs in the context of Will Carroll's health report ratings and the data that he tracks, Running a Yellow Light.
Baseball prospectus posted an excellent chart for the 2009 season, days lost to injury (sabermetrically speaking, D-LOIN?) vs salary lost, as a percentage of total team payroll (S-LOIN?).
The award is based on a number of factors, including but not limited to quantitative measures such as days lost to the DL, dollars lost to the DL, percentage of payroll lost to the DL, and year-over-year improvements and trends regarding these numbers.
Maybe that's one more thing Tom Ricketts should put on Ari Kaplan's To-Do list (Ricketts hired Kaplan as Cub manager of statistical analysis this past June).
Repeating myself, but I give Maddon a lot of credit for Baez's success. Instead of talking about monster HRs and high K totals, he has talked up his defense, versatility and being a "special" player. The kid seems to have responded.
BOB: The attendance has taken a big hit since you left.
K-DUB: I think the Cubs might consider skipping Dylan Cease past South Bend and starting him at Myrtle Beach next season, especially if he gets some time at South Bend this season and pitches well there. As a southern kid with TJS history, pitching at Myrtle Beach in April is probably a lot more attractive than pitching in South Bend, but Cease can't go to Myrtle Beach if he isn't ready for Hi-A.
His story makes him someone I completely root for to succeed but it's interesting that he's not succeeding in the way anyone thought when he was just a prospect. Great defense and contact instead of power. I think failing so glaringly and getting sent back down might have been the best thing for him and his ego.
He still swings at too many balls out of the strike zone but he's making a lot more contact on them which I think is helped by the less violent swing. So we might not get all the HRs we were expecting but I'll gladly take what he's giving.
"KingKongVsGodzilla"? So - was there a winner?
Baez is looking like a pretty special player.
Love checking TCR for your writeups. Quick question - any of these 2015 positional IFAs stand out to you yet? I'm most specifically referring to Kwon, Sierra, Paredes, and Amaya, but I know there's a couple other guys from that class in EXST as well.
bored...looking at stats for the hell of it...
felix pena (26yo) moving to the pen in AAA is looking like an insanely good fit so far in a smallish sample size
13ip 4h 3bb 20K
remembering back to spring training he was regularly hitting mid-90s (though he didn't have a good spring stats-wise). as a starter in the minors he usually worked low-90s.
this could be an arm worth keeping an eye on even if he's only a 1-inning guy who was "demoted" to the pen to start the year.
Phil, historically this front office has been patient with their prep pitchers keeping their IP low and moving them one level at a time. I know I'm getting ahead of myself, and you may not be able to formulate an opinion on this, but you've seen a lot of pitchers over the years, so...
also, after tonight's loss, STL is 13-14.
also also, the wsox are 19-8.
Win tomorrow, and the Cubs would have a 6-game lead. On May 4.
Fully agree on Addy -- hope he is our SS for a long time. I'm just surprised he has 4 errors already -- the last 2 on routine plays.
Guess how many Carlos Correa has?
I would still rather have Russell, right now, than any shortstop the team has had in many years. The future is bright enough to wear shades.
EDIT: Gonzo WOULD have been my favorite, 'cepting a certain error of a double-play ball...
Hi Phil, made it home tonight safely. Looks like Cease is getting better each outing. I see Crow did ok today too. I will be reading your write_ups everyday. Great seeing you while there!
tomorrow's game is a 12:35pm EST game for some ungodly stupid reason...then it's back to wrigley field for a night game on the 5th.
The best part of tonight's game was 6 different players with RBIs. Truly a lineup that doesn't give up top to bottom.