So John Lannan lost his arbitration case to the Nationals and wil be paid $5M for next season (as opposed to $5.7M he was asking). Now that the money is settled, the Nats are trying to move Lannan for a position player, preferably a center fielder, so that they can sign Edwin Jackson instead. I'm not quite sure why they want to make that swap, but that seems to be the goal for them. If the Cubs cared to add another mediocre pitcher with 2 years of club control while moving Marlon Byrd and the one year left on his contract, while saving about $1.5M, it appears a match could be made.
I certainly don't see the Cubs doing it, not much difference between Paul Maholm and Lannan and it seems that the pitching depth problem has been more than solved. And if you're a fan of FIP, Lannan's numbers are worse than what he's actually put up. But on some level it could make some sense, especially if the Cubs are afraid they won't have a taker in 2 months for Byrd. And they do have Reed Johnson, Tony Campana, Brett Jackson, David DeJesus and possibly Yoenis Cespedes that can step up in center field if Byrd is moved.
Speaking of arbitration, Matt Garza's case is heard tomorrow. Once that's settled, I wouldn't be surprised for the rumor mongering to start up again, once teams are certain of his cost.
Comments
Re: Marlon Byrd for John Lannan Opportunity Exists
I'd do it in a second if I were the Cubs. Randy Wells can start the year in Iowa and we can save on a little bit of service time.
Also makes it much easier to deal Dempster mid season. Especially since Lannon won't be on the market as a Dempster alternative.
Re: Marlon Byrd for John Lannan Opportunity Exists
Dempster, Garza, Volstad, Maholm, Lannan rotation?
with Wells and Wood in the bullpen or in Iowa
makes a little sense, not a ton though...Lannan's been more lucky than good, big risk that he's just terrible and can't move him.
Re: Marlon Byrd for John Lannan Opportunity Exists
Meh, worst-case scenario you're out $5M and Byrd. Probably worth a gamble. Best case scenario he's markedly improved and you have him in 2013. And if he blows in 2012, he can be traded or non-tendered.
Re: Marlon Byrd for John Lannan Opportunity Exists
part of worst case also is you're wasting a spot that Wood or Wells could be pitching in, thus reducing their potential trade value or value to team.
not like Cubs have an open spot for Lannan right now.
anyway, think there's good arguments on both sides, see if Cubs are even interested. Keeping Byrd around for 2-3 months isn't terrible as you don't really want to start Jackson's service time if you don't have too and have him eligible to be a Super Two.
Re: Marlon Byrd for John Lannan Opportunity Exists
Both guys have minor league options left. So even worst case you are still going to save some service time on each guy.
Randy Wells is a 3.016 right now. So if you keep him in Iowa for 17 days you get to keep him through 2016.
Travis Wood is at 1.039 right now. So 40 days in Iowa will keep him under club control thru 2018.
Byrd has no future with the club at this point either way. He's window dressing on a 100 loss team this year.
Re: Marlon Byrd for John Lannan Opportunity Exists
I thought it was a 120-loss team.
Re: Marlon Byrd for John Lannan Opportunity Exists
Before we decided not to trade Garza and signed Maholm. Either way it's a facking disaster in Wrigleyville this year.
Re: Marlon Byrd for John Lannan Opportunity Exists
I'm a bit more worried about Jackson's service time than Wells or Wood to be honest.
As I said, wouldn't hate it if they did it, but per usual, there's a good arguments for it not happening.
Re: Marlon Byrd for John Lannan Opportunity Exists
I'd say Jackson stays in Iowa until his super two time expires. At least on this team.
Might as well let Campana and Reed Johnson share CF until BJax shows he is ready.
JMHO
Re: Marlon Byrd for John Lannan Opportunity Exists
I hear that Campana put on "10 lbs of muscle" at Camp
ColvinBussy (now named after trainer Tim Buss) this winter.Re: Marlon Byrd for John Lannan Opportunity Exists
maybe the ball will land past 2nd base this year...
Re: Marlon Byrd for John Lannan Opportunity Exists
Fwiw, rotoworld blurb saying Lannan has one option left.
Re: Marlon Byrd for John Lannan Opportunity Exists
Thu, 02/02/2012 - 2:21pm — Dr. aaron b
Both guys have minor league options left. So even worst case you are still going to save some service time on each guy.
Randy Wells is a 3.016 right now. So if you keep him in Iowa for 17 days you get to keep him through 2016.
Travis Wood is at 1.039 right now. So 40 days in Iowa will keep him under club control thru 2018.
Byrd has no future with the club at this point either way. He's window dressing on a 100 loss team this year.
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DR AARON B: Right now Randy Wells is under club control only through the 2014 season. To be under club control through the 2015 season, he would have to lose those 16 days over three seasons (3+016) he has now, plus at least one more day.
To get there in 2012, Wells would have to spend at least 28 days (not 17 days) on Optional Assignment to the minors.
Here's why:
If a player spends 19 or fewer days on Optional Assignment in a given season, he gets credit for a full year of MLB Service Time. (A "full season" of MLB Service Time is 172 days, but the MLB regular season actually is 183 days).
So if Wells is optioned to the minors for a total of 19 days or less in 2012 he gets credit for a full season MLB Service Time.
If he spends more than 19 days on Optional Assignmentf he cannot get credit for a full season, but the first 11 days on Optional Assignment don't count because of the difference betwen the MLB regular season (183 days) and what constitutes a full season of MLB Service Time (172 days).
Only AFTER the first 11 days can you start to count the 17 days needed.
So that's why it's 28 days.
Likewise with Travis Wood.
To get an extra year of club control, T. Wood would need to spend at least 51 days on Optional Assignment in 2012, because the first 11 days don't count, and then he still needs 40 more.
BTW, if a player is optioned to the minors during Spring Training, time spent on Optional Assignment prior to MLB Opening Day does not count for anything, other than relieving the club of having to pay him at the MLB salary rate if he is injured prior to Opening Day (an injured player cannot be optioned to the minors).
Also, the following players have accrued less than five years of MLB Service Time through the 2011 season (so they cannot refuse an Optional Assignment to the minors) and have options remaining (so they can be optioned), but each must clear Optional Assignment Waivers before they can be optioned to the minors in 2012:
Blake DeWitt
Matt Garza
Andy Sonnanstine
Ian Stewart
Chris Volstad
Randy Wells
(Bryan LaHair, Marcos Mateo, Jeff Samardzija, and Geovany Soto have each accrued less than five years of MLB Service Time through the 2011 season, too, but they have no minor league options left, and Lendy Castillo cannot be optioned to the minors because he is a Rule 5 player).
Optional Assignment Waivers are revocable (so the waiver request can be rescinded if the player is claimed) and are required to option any player who made his debut on an MLB 25-man roster (MLB Active List) at least three or more years previous, or two or more years previous if the player spent one full season on Optional Assignment prior to making his debut on a 25-man roster, or one year or more previous if the player spent at least two full seasons on Optional Assignment to the minors prior to making his debut on an MLB 25-man roster.
Sometimes you will see a club DFA a player during the MLB regular season and then option him to the minors a few days later. That's because Optional Assignment Waivers must be secured before he can be optioned, and it takes two days to get a player through waivers.
Optional Assignment Waivers can be requested anytime February 16th through August 31st, and once secured, the waivers are generally good for the entire waiver period (but only through August 31st for the waiver period that starts on August 1st), so the club does not have to keep securing waivers if they want to move the player back & forth to the minors more than one time during the course of that waiver period.
Normally a player who is Designated for Assignment (DFA) must be either traded, released, or outrighted, but DURING THE MLB REGULAR SEASON a player can be Designated for Assignment (which temporarily takes him off both the 25-man and 40-man roster) and then can be optioned to the minors as long as the assignment is made within 10 days, and as long as the player was not replaced on the club's 40-man roster by another player while on the Designated List (DFA). Then once the waivers are secured, the player can be optioned to the minors, and the player is returned to the club's MLB 40-man roster at that time. (And players do accrue MLB Service Time while on the Designated List).
Optional Assignment Waivers (like Trade Assignment Waivers) are revocable the first time they are requested in a given waiver period, but they become irrevocable if the player is placed on Optional Assignment Waivers again during that waiver period.
Re: Marlon Byrd for John Lannan Opportunity Exists
Seriously, has Theo called you about a job yet??
I love these reads!
Re: Marlon Byrd for John Lannan Opportunity Exists
Good stuff Phil. Thanks for the enlightenment.
Re: Marlon Byrd for John Lannan Opportunity Exists
Heyman tweets E. Jackson does have agreement with Nationals saying he was seen in airport to take physical.
https://twitter.com/JonHeymanCBS/status/16514...
Re: Marlon Byrd for John Lannan Opportunity Exists
allegedly 1 year deal with Nats, I believe it will push down Cubs pick for Pena and their 2nd round pick down 1.
So #6, #43, #55, #65 at the moment with D. Lee and Ibanez still out there. I believe both rank higher than Pena but lower than Ramirez, so if they do sign they'd lose up to 2 more spots on the Pena's supplemental pick and the 2nd round pick.
Re: Marlon Byrd for John Lannan Opportunity Exists
1/$10M for Edwin Jackson.
Re: Marlon Byrd for John Lannan Opportunity Exists
Mistake for Jackson. He'll be up against Hamels, Cain, Greinke, Marcum, Sanchez, and a bunch of other guys next offseason.
Re: Marlon Byrd for John Lannan Opportunity Exists
Does this help or hurt Garza's case?
Re: Marlon Byrd for John Lannan Opportunity Exists
nothing to do with it...
he'll be compared only to other pitchers in their third year of arbitration
Re: Marlon Byrd for John Lannan Opportunity Exists
Really you are only allowed to compare a player to players with similar service time?
Re: Marlon Byrd for John Lannan Opportunity Exists
yes, you certainly aren't going to make your case using free agents as a comp. And to further complicate it, players that signed multi-year extensions within their arbitration years (Hamels, Cain, Nolasco for example) are usually not part of the discussion.
Re: Marlon Byrd for John Lannan Opportunity Exists
I thought we were getting Prado for Byrd?
Re: Marlon Byrd for John Lannan Opportunity Exists
I have no idea why the Braves would make that trade once they got Michael Bourne.
MLB's worst position situations
Cubs not named at the top spot but get dishonorable mention for 2B, 3B and 1B.
http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/02/02/...
Re: Marlon Byrd for John Lannan Opportunity Exists
Actually, I would put a different spin on that article. Only one Cub, Stewart, is mentioned. It looks like they consider him the second worst at third, based on where the Cubs appear in the dishonorable list. Ex-Cubs Theriot and Fontenot are mentioned prominently.
The mighty Red Sox get two dishonorables, for shortstop and RF.
Re: Marlon Byrd for John Lannan Opportunity Exists
Actually, I would put a different spin on that article. Only one Cub, Stewart, is mentioned.
still 3, no matter what voodoo magic you care to put on it.
First base: Orioles – Chris Davis, Wilson Betemit
Dishonorable mention: Indians, Pirates, Athletics, Brewers, Cubs
Two of these teams are going to upgrade to Derrek Lee and Casey Kotchman, taking them off the list. I imagine the Indians will be one of them, leaving LaPorta out of a job.
Second base: Mets - Daniel Murphy, Justin Turner, Ronny Cedeno
Dishonorable mentions: Orioles, Tigers, Cardinals, Cubs
Third base: Dodgers – Juan Uribe, Jerry Hairston Jr., Adam Kennedy
Uribe kicked off a three-year, $21 million contract by hitting .204/.264/.293 in 270 at-bats for the Dodgers last season. He can’t be that bad again, but he still gets a worst offensive projection than Ian Stewart
Dishonorable mention: Cubs, Pirates, Twins, Rockies, Mariners
Re: Marlon Byrd for John Lannan Opportunity Exists
Gary Hughes takes job with Red Sox.
Re: Marlon Byrd for John Lannan Opportunity Exists
"Gary Hughes takes job with Red Sox."
This makes me laugh.
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