Cubs Payroll Preview 2008-09
I know a lot can change (and very likely will change) over the next couple of seasons, but AS THINGS STAND RIGHT NOW, here is the payroll preview for the Cubs 2008-09:
NTC = NO TRADE CLAUSE
SIGNED FOR 2008 (15):
1. Henry Blanco - $2.8M
2. Ryan Dempster - $5.5M + $800K in performance bonuses
3. Mark DeRosa - $3.75M
4. Scott Eyre - $3.8M + $800K in performance bonuses (limited NTC)
5. Bob Howry - $4M
6. Jacque Jones – $5M (limited NTC)
7. Derrek Lee - $13M (NTC)
8. Ted Lilly - $7M
9. Jason Marquis - $6.375M
10. Will Ohman - $1.6M + $250K in performance bonuses
11. Aramis Ramirez - $14M (NTC)
12. Jeff Samardzija - $850K, or $600K "split" if optioned to minors (NTC)
13. Alfonso Soriano - $13M (NTC)
14. Daryle Ward – 1.2M
15. Carlos Zambrano - $15M (NTC)
PAYROLL SUB-TOTAL - $96.625M (plus another $1.85M in potential performance bonuses)
NOTE: Not including Samardzija (who almost certainly will be optioned to AA to start the 2008 season), all of the players signed for 2008 have guaranteed contracts and thus are virtual locks to open next season on the 25-man roster (or MLB DL). It's still remotely possible that Scott Eyre will exercise his player option to be a FA (he has until next Monday to decide), but that's extremely unlikely.
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ARBITRATION-ELIGIBLE AFTER 2007 (4):
1. Neal Cotts (minimum '08 salary with max 20% cut is $680K - likely 12/12 non-tender)
2. Craig Monroe (minimum '08 salary with max 20% cut is $3.82M - likely 12/12 non-tender)
3. Mark Prior (minimum '08 salary with max 20% cut is $2.86M - likely 12/12 non-tender)
4. Michael Wuertz (very likely will be offered salary arbitration - will likely get around $1M in first year of arbitration)
PAYROLL SUB-TOTAL: $1M (guess-timate)
NOTE: Unless the Cubs are able to trade the trio, the Cubs will likely non-tender Cotts, Monroe, and Prior on 12/12, but will then likely offer Prior a contract for something like a $1M base salary plus maybe another $4M in incentives (based on GS) for 2008, similar to the contract Wade Miller got last off-season. Whether Prior would accept such a deal from the Cubs is unknown, but my guess is that if he gets non-tendered by the Cubs, he will take the opportunity to sign a similar-type contract with his hometown Padres.
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So with 14 players having guaranteed MLB contracts for 2008 (Blanco, Dempster, DeRosa, Eyre, Howry, Jones, Lee, Lilly, Marquis, Ohman, Ramirez, Soriano, Ward, and Zambrano), and with one of the four players eligible for salary arbitration likely to return in 2008 (that would be Wuertz), that leaves 10 slots open on the 2008 Opening Day 25-man roster (AS OF RIGHT NOW) for potential free-agents, or otherwise the slots will default to 10 "auto-renewal" (pre-arbitration) players (plus Angel Guzman earning the MLB minimum while on the DL).
Since the new MLB minimum salary for "auto-renewal' players is $390K (and it will be $400K beginning in 2009), that means at least another $4.3M will need to be spent above and beyond the $97.625.
So AS OF RIGHT NOW, if the Cubs make no changes during the off-season, the 2008 payroll will be $102M.
AUTO-RENEWAL (PRE-ARBITRATION) FOR 2008 (20):
NOTE: Players most-likely to open season on 25-man roster in bold
1. Ronny Cedeno (out of minor league options)
2. Mike Fontenot (will likely battle Pagan for 25th spot on roster)
3. Jake Fox (will likely be at AAA on Opening Day 2008)
4. Sam Fuld
5. Sean Gallagher (will likely battle Hart for 12th spot on pitching staff)
6. Angel Guzman (will likely spend 2008 season on 60-day DL)
7. Adam Harben (likely will be in AA on Opening Day 2008)
8. Kevin Hart (will likely battle Gallagher for 12th spot on pitching staff)
9. Rich Hill
10. Carlos Marmol
11. Sean Marshall
12. Juan Mateo (likely will be in AAA on Opening Day 2008)
13. Matt Murton
14. Angel Pagan (will likely battle Fontenot for 25th spot on roster)
15. Eric Patterson (likely will be in AAA on Opening Day 2008)
16. Billy Petrick (likely will be in AAA on Opening Day 2008)
17. Felix Pie (likely will be in AAA on Opening Day 2008)
18. Carmen Pignatiello (likely will be in AAA on Opening Day 2008)
19. Geovany Soto (out of minor league options)
20. Ryan Theriot
NOTE: Of the 10 open slots presently available on the Cubs likely 2008 Opening Day 25-man roster, the two spots in doubt are the 12th slot in the bullpen and the last man on the bench.
AS THINGS STAND RIGHT NOW, it appears that Kevin Hart and Sean Gallagher will be the top two contenders for the "12th man" on the pitching staff (long relief), but that would change if the Cubs re-sign Kerry Wood or some other veteran reliever or "swing-man" (spot starter/long relief). It's also possible that Hart or Gallagher could take the 5th spot in the starting rotation, with Sean Marshall going to AAA.
And also AS THINGS STAND RIGHT NOW, it appears that Mike Fontenot and Angel Pagan will battle for the last spot on the bench, but that would change if the Cubs sign a FA like Kosuke Fukudome.
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POTENTIAL FREE-AGENTS AFTER 2008 (7):
1. Henry Blanco (vesting option or else club option with $300K buy-out for 2009)
2. Ryan Dempster
3. Scott Eyre
4. Bob Howry
5. Jacque Jones
6. Craig Monroe (if he isn't non-tendered next month)
7. Will Ohman
8. Mark Prior (if he isn't non-tendered next month)
9. Daryle Ward
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SIGNED BEYOND 2008 (8):
1. Mark DeRosa ($5.5M in 2009, then FA)
2. Jason Marquis ($9.875M in 2009, then FA)
3. Derrek Lee ($13M in 2009 and 2010, then FA - complete "no trade")
4. Ted Lilly ($12M in 2009 and 2010, then FA)
5. Aramis Ramirez ($15.65M in 2009 and $15.75M in 2010, $14.6M 2011 player option, and $16M 2012 mutual option with $2M buy-out - complete "no trade")
6. Jeff Samardzija (thru 2011 + mutual options for 2012 & 2013 -complete "no trade" through 2011)
2009: $1.3M (guaranteed - no minor league split)
2010: $2.5M (guaranteed - no minor league split)
2011: $2.8M (guaranteed - no minor league split)
2012: $3M (mutual option - player can opt out only if he is eligible for salary arbitration)
2013: $3.5M (mutual option - player can opt out only if he is eligible for salary-arbitration)
7. Carlos Zambrano ($17.75M in 2009, $17.875 in 2010 and 2011, and $18M in 2012, plus $19.25M 2013 vesting-player option - complete "no trade")
8. Alfonso Soriano ($13M in 2008, $16M in 2009, and $18M 2010 through 2014, then FA - complete "no trade")
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PROJECTED ELIGIBLE FOR SALARY-ARBITRATION POST-2008 (7):
1. Ronny Cedeno
2. Neal Cotts
3. Rich Hill (projected 2+149 MLB ST after 2008 - likely “Super Two”)
4. Sean Marshall (projected 2+132 MLB ST after 2008 – could be a “Super Two”)
5. Matt Murton
6. Angel Pagan (projected 2+143 MLB ST after 2008 – likely “Super Two”)
7. Michael Wuertz
NOTE: These projections are based on each of the players potentially eligible for salary arbitration post-2008 spending the entire 2008 season in the big leagues.
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So the Cubs have $91M in guaranteed salaries committed to just eight players (DeRosa, Marquis, Lee, Lilly, Samardzija, Ramirez, Zambrano, and Soriano) for 2009, plus an unknown amount of payroll to be committed to as many as seven players who could be eligible for salary arbitation after the 2008 season (Cedeno, Cotts, Hill, Marshall, Murton, Pagan and Wuertz), although of the seven, Cotts is likely to be non-tendered next month, and Pagan (IF he spends enough time in the big leagues in 2008 to qualify for salary arbitration as a "Super Two") would be a likely 12/12 non-tender after the 2008 season.
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