2010 Fantasy Draft

The 15-team league with mostly TCR readers that I'm in had their draft yesterday. It's a 25-man roster, point based league with 9 position spots (C, 1b, 2b, 3b, SS, LF, CF, RF, Util) and 9 pitching spots (4 SP, 3 RP, 2 Util P) and a 1500 IP limit. There's also a 2nd league of TCR'ites using a similar point system that started last year, so feel free to discuss your drafts as well in the comments. For those who get annoyed or bored when talking about fantasy baseball or just hate the concept in its entirety...um, sorry. I'll get something more Cub-centric up later.

Each team gets 6 keepers and you draft them based on last year's point totals. So if the players was a top 15 player, you draft him with your first round pick, 16-30 is a second round player and so forth...multiple players in the same round get spread out to the next round. The basic strategy is you can trade keepers depending on quality of talent or if you want higher draft picks. So for example, I could have tried to trade Cliff Lee for a player that was injured last year like Carlos Beltran and had a higher draft pick in exchange for a player with some issues but more upside (in reality I made the opposite trade this offseason, getting Lee for Beltran who was a 20th round pick). I had the 13th pick in the first round with a 25-round draft, snake style. I relied heavily on BP's fantasy tier rankings to be honest. (K) indicates a keeper.

  • 1st Round - Albert Pujols (13) (K) - acquired in a trade from "The Joe" that involved Grady Sizemore(and others) before the 2008 season. "The Joe" has been doing just fine without him, finishing second and first in the last two seasons.
  • 2nd Round - Chase Utley (18) (K) - acquired with A-rod and Jake Peavy before last year for T. Tulowitzki, E. Santana and one other player from "JD".
  • 3rd Round - Chris Carpenter (43) (K) - Low round draft pick from last year.
  • 4th Round - Cliff Lee (48) (K) - I traded A. Wainwright for C. Beltran early in this offseason and then moved Beltran for Lee when Beltran's knee flared up again. Hoping for a big year in Safeco with a good defense behind him and his contract year.
  • 5th Round - Alex Rodriguez (73) (K) - See Chase Utley.
  • 6th Round - Carlos Lee (78) -  It was between Manny Ramirez and Lee and the pick ahead of me took Manny.
  • 7th Round - Jonathan Broxton (103) (K) - My favorite closer in the league not named Mariano Rivera.
  • 8th Round - Shane Victorino (108) Slim pickings left at center field by this point and starting pitchers were in abundence.
  • 9th Round - Yunel Escobar  (133) - He turns 27 and putting up an .800 OPS at shortstop, it was great value in my opinion.
  • 10th Round - A.J. Burnett (138) - If his arm doesn't blow out, should rack up wins with the Yankees offense and of course strikeouts.
  • 11th Round - Brandon Lyon (163) - closers were flying off the board by this point, although Lyon isn't necessarily guaranteed the role with Matt Lindstrom also in their pen. 
  • 12th Round - Jon Rauch (168) - if the Twins don't pick up anybody, he seems the favorite for the job.
  • 13th Round - Travis Snider (193) - BP had him as a 4-star left fielder and I went for a high upside guy. His 2-position eligibility helped as well as I'll use him in right initially.
  • 14th Round - Chris Iannetta (198) - Another BP 4-star ranking I was happy to get this low in the draft.
  • 15th Round - Kevin Gregg (223) - I believe the last closer left in the draft, although not guaranteed the job yet.
  • 16th Round - Nick Swisher (228) - We have a utility spot that Swisher will fill or take right field if Snider is a bust.
  • 17th Round - JJ Hardy (253) - Shocked he made it this far as I expect a pretty good bounce back season.
  • 18th Round - Mark Buehrle (258) - I'm counting on another perfect game from him this year.
  • 19th Round - Marlon Byrd (283) - 3 position eligibility, decent back-up option and hopefully can ride some of his hot streaks.
  • 20th Round - Rafael Betancourt (288) - The closer depth chart I was using had him as the Rockies primary set-up man, but after the draft I learned he hasn't pitched yet this spring and Franklin Morales is likely to get the save opportunities while Huston Street deals with his shoulder issues. A real good chance I'll be dropping him in the next day or so.
  • 21st Round - Brad Penny (313) - I'm hoping for another Duncan miracle.
  • 22nd Round - Kosukue Fukudome (318) - I'm not sure if he'll even make my Opening Day roster. Hitting higher up in the order is a better use of his skills though and he has 2-position eligibility.
  • 23rd Round - Fausto Carmona (343) - Hoping another year away from surgery and he'll find some control.
  • 24th Round - Justin Smoak (348) - 95% chance I drop him before I find any use for him.
  • 25th Round - Troy Glaus (373) - I traded him right after the draft for Miguel Olivo.

We have daily lineup changes so what I like to do at the catcher spot is have the primary catcher and back-up from the same team and hopefully switch them when needed and the Rockies have a good duo. It didn't work at all for me last year, as I'd miss the lineups and I had the Rangers duo of Saltalamacchia and Teagarden and they were both terrible. Otherwise I'm pretty happy with my team at this moment, but I'll need to be aggressive in finding closers on the waiver wire as they help tremendously in our league with the innings pitched limit (good relievers average about 3.5-4.5 pts per innings, starters usually in the 2.5-3.5 range). I also need to find a 2b/3b eligibile player to fill-in on the days A-rod or Utley take off.

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Comments

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/blue-jays-...

using George Sherrill trade as a guideline

The Jays might not land a prospect as promising as third baseman Josh Bell, the Orioles’ principal return for Sherrill. But they will want at least the equivalent of a 2011 sandwich pick between the first and second rounds, and probably more.

Bell was 8th on BA's list heading into 2009 and the O's also got pitcher Steve Johnson. Sherrill also had 2 years of control left when they traded for him.

Colvin wasn't rated that high heading into 2010, but that was before his spring training and the muscle gain. I would think Colvin and Archer or Parker or one of the myriad of C+/B- arms could get it done. If Blue Jays really want an outfielder that is, since the Cubs don't have a lot there.

If they could talk them into a middle infielder that could maybe move to the outfield, someone like Flaherty or Watkins and maybe a better pitching prospect.

http://baseballmusings.com/?p=48339

* Best lineup: 5.03 runs per game
* Probable lineup: 4.81 runs per game
* Worst lineup: 4.48 runs per game
* Regressed lineup: 4.54 runs per game

Chi Cubs IP H R ER BB SO HR ERA
Samardzija 3.0 4 2 2 1 4 0 7.71

That actually looks better than he has been doing. If you K a batter an inning and only walk one every three, you're going to be alright.

not watching, but there was a flurry of twitter action about Derrek Lee screwing up a play

he made it through the 4th apparently without anymore damage. Grabow in now.

4 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 4 K for Samardzija on the day and as I mentioned, I don't know the specifics but sounded like Lee messed up some play that contributed to some run or runs.

Thanks for the update.

5-0 through 7

Grabow gives up 2 unearned runs on 3 hits in 0.2 IP and a Jeff Baker error was involved

Stevens and Parker have pitched since but they've already been sent down.

Carmona goes 6 scoreless, giving up just 2 hits, 5 GO's to 9 FB's which isn't a good ratio for him, but no walks. Soriano with both hits, one a double.

Dusty has ruined him already...

dusty also kicked his dog, had sex with him mom, and put sugar in his gas tank.

i think rob nenn is the only guy he's sent to surgery and he was a reliever...go figure.

chapman is due for AA even though people are barking about him being the 5th starter. i mean, he could make it...doubtful, though...especially in April.

i think rob nenn is the only guy he's sent to surgery and he was a reliever...go figure.

off the top of my head, Wood, Prior, Volquez, Chad Fox also had surgeries under Baker, although technically Prior had his after Baker was fired. And Fox, well yeah, Chad Fox

even-handed look at Baker and pitchers can be found here.

http://mlb.fanhouse.com/2010/02/23/dustys-tra...

i'll let you have prior and not take a stand on wood...but you can't have fox or volquez =p

also, that article is far from even handed...especially since it doesn't care who's pitching for you and they're making their 1/2-assed point with PAP (and a joke of a quote by Will "my dad is a doctor, kinda" Carroll)...especially since he's had some notorious long-use guys who he wasn't the last and/or the first to use them like that.

they site russ f'n ortiz...who had bobby in ATL work him for 2 years after his SF workload on the same routine. yeesh...

also, that article is far from even handed

so a more even-handed article would be to not mention pitch counts at all or any of the players ever injured and absolve Baker of all wrong-doing?

alright.

no, but it wouldn't use PAP without considering talent on hand and use a will carroll comment while sticking the counter-arguement at the bottom.

it's a lot more fair than many i've read, but it's a pretty extreme arguement for the numbers tempered by a bit of the counter-arguement down bottom.

they spent a chunk of time on russ ortiz only to say "oh yeah, it doesn't have anything to do with anything because all that hype you just read translates to russ ortiz telling us he injured his rib in ATL which causes him to change his mechanics and blah blah blah"...

it's just too hype, imo...

If you continue to exert yourself when you get tired you're more likely to get hurt. It's across all sports and athletic endeavors. Why anyone would think that it magically doesn't apply to the shoulders of pitchers is beyond me.

why anyone would magically apply it to a specific day or a specific thing or use a pool of data that isn't linear with your comparison point...etc etc...

ballplayers aren't in some vacuum and you can't blanket compare use...i mean, he managed livan hernandez and russ ortiz for a chunk of those years and we're supposed to treat those guys the same as a guy like rich harden or kerry wood?

What's your point? All those guys have had shoulder issues. Just because there's other causes for shoulder injury than over use, doesn't mean that overuse isn't a cause.

it sure isn't proof...nor conclusive proof...

...and you're going to have a higher aggregate of pitcher use when you have high-pitch capable guys around

besides all that, there's tons of guys who pitched a lot harder than they do today and made out just fine.

and a will carroll quote is about as useful as a dr. phil quote for the most part...

and you're going to have a higher aggregate of pitcher use when you have high-pitch capable guys around

Could you explain this? How do we distinguish between guys who are high-pitch capable and those who were overused?

use and how they respond to it...

people have done less and come out worse...and done more and come out just fine.

roy halladay was put on his career death bed because of "overuse"...now he's back and being "overused" again doing just fine.

there's just too much going on to make giving a guy 5-10 too many pitches too many games in a row being some death nail.

...death knell.

"an omen of death or destruction"

http://www.google.com/search?num=30&hl=en&saf...

Sorry, crunch. It's such a cool term, I didn't want it to pass uncorrected.

yeah, it's utterly k-rad.

"had sex with him mom"

Just reminded me of this Super Dave joke-

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K9CDfFGfCu4

CSN replay of today's game with Len/Bob on the mic...MLB Network.

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