The Second Coming of Bill Madlock?

This topic doesn't really merit a full post, but the site won't allow me to reply directly to inquiries aimed my way about Marquez Smith so I took another route in.

I've assembled a hodgepodge of data about Mr. Smith and pasted it below. He's been on a tear of late and helped keep the team afloat at the top of the PCL standings while many of his teammates have been called up to sink their parents toward the bottom of the NL Central. There's a link to a recent feature in the Des Moines Register, a clip from a recent edition of I-Cub game notes summarizing his hot streak, an excerpt from those same notes that shows the team has a much better record with Matt Camp at 3rd than Smith [FWIW], a "scouting report" from his former coach at Clemson [wasn't he a teammate of Colvin's there?] who extols his defensive abilities and a stat line from his brief demotion to Tennessee in the spring where he really did nothing to merit a recall to Triple A. I can't remember the circumstances of his return to Des Moines, but he has certainly capitalized on the renewed opportunity. As for AZP's estimation of former third-sackers Smith might ultimately equate to, why not shoot for the moon and invoke the memory of Bill Madlock? He's built along the same lines as I remember Madlock, although Mad Dog's listed in stat archives at a mere 180 lbs., substantially fewer than Marquez is pulling around behind him. Smith is a low center of gravity guy which might lend itself to the dives so often called for at the corner. When I've seen him he has impressed at the plate and not really done anything one way or another to draw my scrutiny as a fielder.

Will Clemson have the Cub infield cornered in 2012?

ON THE MARQ: With two more hits last night, 3B Marquez Smith extended his season-high hitting streak to 10 games and has hit safley his last 12 starts. In those 12 games, Smith is batting .512 (22-for-43) with 15 runs scored, five doubles, nine home runs and 20 RBI. He has hit nine home runs in his last 14 games. For the month of August, Smith leads the league in batting (.429), home runs (9), slugging (1.00), and OPS (1.492). He is tied for the league lead with Mat Gamel of Nashville with 14 extra-base hits and tied with Jason Lane of Las Vegas with 56 total bases. He is second in the league with 21 RBI (Bret Pill of Fresno has 22) and in on-base percentage (.492).

Marquez Smith Tennessee 5/15-6/3 .182 16 44 8 8 2 0 3 5 5 13 0 0 1

Smith 58 (31-27), Camp 34 (23-11),

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=20108230312

"Marquez is one of the better third-baseman, certainly in the ACC and maybe in the country. He played a lot last year as our third-baseman. His fielding percentage, consistency, and accuracy are all outstanding. He has great hands and is going to hit in the middle of the order. He's a great team player, and he's one of the keys to our success."

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Iowa Cubs update
Submitted by Mike Wellman on Mon, 08/23/2010 - 3:26pm
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Comments

Submitted by big_lowitzki
on Mon, 08/23/2010 - 4:17pm

Smith is a low center of gravity guy which might lend itself to the dives so often called for at the corner.

You're joking, right?

Submitted by crunch
on Mon, 08/23/2010 - 4:39pm

he's one of those guys who shows up every year talking about the weight he's lost before he puts it on again by May.

he lists as 200lbs. which is funny because he listed at 210-220lbs. in college though he looks even bigger now.

he's muscular, though...not a plodding fatass. he just packs on the weight easily and fast.

Submitted by Paul Noce
on Mon, 08/23/2010 - 9:59pm

He's not joking. Ron Jeremy has a low center of gravity and look how it's helped him.

Submitted by John Beasley
on Tue, 08/24/2010 - 7:15am

Has Ron Jeremy ever stopped at first or second base? Talk about a home run hitter ...

Submitted by crunch
on Mon, 08/23/2010 - 5:35pm

paul sulivan gets his once-per-month joke that's actually funny going on via twitter...

"Occupational hazard for Cubs managers: Having to listen to George Will pontificate, as Quade is doing right now. Oh, the humanity!"

also...quade on his latest shot.

Quade: "it probably, absolutely is (an audition)... and I've got to be myself."

Submitted by Rob G.
on Mon, 08/23/2010 - 5:48pm

Dewitt leading off +
Soriano getting moved down +
Soto batting 8th -
Colvin not playing first -

Submitted by Cubster
on Mon, 08/23/2010 - 5:51pm

quade clears voice...hrumph (in shower), harmonica wailing in...B flat, "I Gotta Be Me...

Submitted by Rob G.
on Mon, 08/23/2010 - 6:19pm

reminds me of Todd Walker with the facial hair and that error.

Submitted by Rob G.
on Mon, 08/23/2010 - 6:21pm

at Nats park is extremely annoying.

Submitted by Rob G.
on Mon, 08/23/2010 - 6:22pm

41 HR's in 119 games in his career against Cubs.

Impressive.

Submitted by Paul Noce
on Mon, 08/23/2010 - 9:58pm

All 41 of those were off Kerry Wood.

Submitted by Cubster
on Mon, 08/23/2010 - 7:17pm

But can Marquis Smith play the trumpet?

Submitted by Cubster
on Mon, 08/23/2010 - 7:18pm

Mike Quade, making the Cubs the new Orioles?

Submitted by springs
on Mon, 08/23/2010 - 7:26pm

Was the HBP on Byrd serious? It looked on gamecast that he stayed on the bases, so I am guessing this is precautionary, but any insight would be great.

Submitted by Rob G.
on Mon, 08/23/2010 - 7:34pm

nailed in the hand, stayed in after a long visit from trainer, but left afterwards. So don't know...looked in pain.

Submitted by springs
on Mon, 08/23/2010 - 7:40pm

Thank you.

Submitted by Cubster
on Mon, 08/23/2010 - 7:34pm

On Sori's two run triple that Willie Harris missed and apparently hit the chalk line...noting Alf loping to first base before running hard after the ball landed...

Brenly: "sure would be nice going hard out of the box one time"

(must be Bob's porno moustache)

Submitted by dukeoferrol
on Tue, 08/24/2010 - 9:05am

I have no idea why managers put up with that. The Cubs are paying the guy $18 mil a year and he can't run hard to first base? I'd pull him from the game every single time he did that. Hell, it's not like the team is going anywhere and AS isn't playing well anyway.

Submitted by Mitterwald
on Tue, 08/24/2010 - 11:38am

Red meat for the fans ...

Submitted by Cubster
on Mon, 08/23/2010 - 7:58pm

Len says Byrd hand XRay is negative for a fracture, he is day to day

aren't we all.

Submitted by crunch
on Mon, 08/23/2010 - 8:50pm

guess colvin won't be playing 1st any time soon

Submitted by Rob G.
on Mon, 08/23/2010 - 8:17pm

Reynolds believes Girardi will manage Cubs

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/danpatrick/b...

Girardi's generic response

“My focus is here, I have a responsibility to the organization and the guys in the clubhouse,’’ Girardi said. "As a player, when I was a free agent, I never worried about where I would be. As a manager I am never worried about where I am going to be. The one thing I can control is getting the players to play the best they can every day. I am very happy here, a great working relationship with everybody.’’

Submitted by jacos
on Mon, 08/23/2010 - 8:29pm

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/blog/big_league_s...

Yeah let's talk about something else.

Submitted by The Real Neal
on Mon, 08/23/2010 - 8:35pm

Really poor article, besides just re-hasing the Chicago Magazine article, doesn't even point out that Sosa wasn't any worse than Bonds, and Bonds is still loved in San Fran.

Submitted by crunch
on Mon, 08/23/2010 - 8:53pm

yeah, and the CHC fans probably would like to see him, too.

he's not as hated as others out there plus it seems almost every cheater gets a break if they're supporting the fan's team...

it'd probably sell some tickets hehe...

Submitted by big_lowitzki
on Mon, 08/23/2010 - 8:49pm

Ex-Cub Rich Harden has a no-hitter through 5, though he now has 4 walks. There is about a 1 in billion chance he throws a complete game, even if he doesn't give up a hit.

Submitted by jacos
on Mon, 08/23/2010 - 9:13pm

6.2, 0 hits, 5 bb, 94 pitches and out of the game

/way to lay down the law nolan

Submitted by Cubster
on Mon, 08/23/2010 - 9:13pm

Harden 6.2 IP, 111 pitches, no hits, no runs, 6BB, 5K...

Harrison now in, got Thome to end the 7th. Twins still being no hit, down 3-0.

Submitted by Cubster
on Mon, 08/23/2010 - 9:15pm

Quade gets his first win, so does Casey Coleman

...why does this feel like late September?

Submitted by Craig A.
on Mon, 08/23/2010 - 9:33pm

Sure, Quade's Cubs can beat the Nats, but what about the Pirates?

Submitted by Cubster
on Mon, 08/23/2010 - 9:52pm

Texas no-no, not happening

Mauer one out single after an Orlando Hudson walk.

Still a shutout final, 4-0

Submitted by John Beasley
on Mon, 08/23/2010 - 9:58pm

Cubs are 3-8 in series since ASB - but the 3 victories are Phillies and Cards x2.

Submitted by Rob G.
on Mon, 08/23/2010 - 11:32pm

Dusty or Dibble?

"And for me, if you can throw the next day, then you probably could have continued out there on the baseball field. So are they a little bit overcautious at this point? Maybe. But he's a $15 million investment. I absolutely can't blame them for taking him out.

"But here's the thing. If this was happening to this kid in college and you knew that, then you also knew that he can pitch through this stuff. So a little bit is, ok, let's see this kid pitch through it.

"I also look at this from the player's standpoint, that this is your job. This is what you do. You're never going to be 100 percent healthy, feel perfect. So you have to take accountability that you're gonna throw sometimes, your arm's gonna hurt. You're gonna be out there on the mound sometimes, the mound is gonna be terrible and the dirt is gonna be a little loose and it might not be so great. You can't constantly be complaining over every little thing.

"So for me, a little bit has to be put back on Strasburg here. Ok, you throw a pitch, it bothers your arm, and you immediately call out the manager and the trainer? Suck it up, kid. This is your profession. You chose to be a baseball player. You can't have the cavalry come in and save your butt every time you feel a little stiff shoulder, sore elbow.

"I mean, excuse me. There's guys I played with that had screws holding their elbows together. -edit- So, this is your choice. You can either suck it up and be a man at 22 making $2 million a year [with] a $15 million contract, or every time you get an ache and pain you can go out of the game and say I'm gonna let down the other 24 guys right here and possibly end up forfeiting the game."

Submitted by Jumbo
on Tue, 08/24/2010 - 4:45am

Cue the mangina comments!!

Submitted by The Real Neal
on Tue, 08/24/2010 - 6:46am

Good God...

Submitted by navigator
on Tue, 08/24/2010 - 8:16am

Back in my day, we walked 12 miles to school, through eight feet of snow, with no shoes, it was uphill in both directions, and we loved it

Submitted by Pell Mell
on Tue, 08/24/2010 - 9:08am

And yeah, some of us were grievously injured, and had to come out of games, and get surgery, and hell no, we never forfeited any games because of it, and, uh...what were we talking about?

Submitted by Jackstraw
on Tue, 08/24/2010 - 11:42am

"and, uh...what were we talking about?"

What time Matlock comes on. Do try to keep up.

Submitted by navigator
on Tue, 08/24/2010 - 10:07am

Would Adam Dunn make it through waivers? He's in the last year of his contract, he wants to be a Cub ( http://www.suntimes.com/sports/baseball/cubs/... ), we've got an empty hole at first base and it'd be outside of the box fun to give him an audition in what remains of the season.

Submitted by The Real Neal
on Tue, 08/24/2010 - 10:15am

You could give him an audtion for $2 million, or you could get a subscription to MLB Season Ticket for $75 bucks and watch him play for the Nationals...

Dunn on Hendry, "I heare nothing but great things about him", like "Hendry will give you whatever you want, then throw an NTC on top of it" - of course he hears those things reading TCR.

Submitted by Dr. aaron b
on Tue, 08/24/2010 - 10:30am

"I asked for a one year deal with incentives to start. By the time we had finished, Jim had talked me into 3 years and 30 Million. What a negotiator that guy is!"

M. Bradley

Submitted by dukeoferrol
on Tue, 08/24/2010 - 11:02am

I may be naive to even ask this but is that a real quotation?

Submitted by crunch
on Tue, 08/24/2010 - 11:07am

not even close

Submitted by dukeoferrol
on Tue, 08/24/2010 - 11:10am

Hence my naivete.

Submitted by crunch
on Tue, 08/24/2010 - 11:42am

might as well have been true after the fact since that's what we got after it was all said and done.

Submitted by jacos
on Tue, 08/24/2010 - 12:13pm

that you have to ask makes it funnier, or sadder.

Submitted by Paul Noce
on Tue, 08/24/2010 - 12:11pm

The real quotation was: "Blah, Blah, Blah, I'm Batshit Insane! Blah, Blah, Money! Oh, Look, A Frog!"

And yes, Milton Bradley does speak in all capitols.

Submitted by Rob G.
on Tue, 08/24/2010 - 11:56am

Dunn already went through waivers at beginning of month and was pulled back.

Submitted by Rob Richardson
on Tue, 08/24/2010 - 12:08pm

Are we really Adam Dunn away from the World Series?

Submitted by Paul Noce
on Tue, 08/24/2010 - 12:15pm

I hope Hendry is fired if he tries to get Ricketts to sign off on Adam Dunn. We do not need another old, slow, poor defense, one dimensional player that is significantly overpaid and for too long.

Submitted by Dr. aaron b
on Tue, 08/24/2010 - 12:28pm

Yes,

We haven't had a bat like Dunn's in this lineup since Sammy Sosa was in his prime.

I'd understand if we had some sort of stud in the Minors that Dunn would potentially block. Unfortunately we don't have an impact bat anywhere in the system.

Submitted by Rob G.
on Tue, 08/24/2010 - 12:36pm

Dunn's wOBA is .388 for his career and ranges from .383 to .403 over the last 6 years.

Same as Aramis until 2010.

Sosa was over .400 and beyond for every season from 1998 to 2002 and finished at .382 in 2003.

Dunn at 2/20 sounds great, but I don't know what his market is right now.

Submitted by Rob Richardson
on Tue, 08/24/2010 - 12:39pm

From Baseball Prospectus:

'[A GM should] ask himself a question that should guide most of his decisions. Namely, "where in the success cycle does my team stand?"

The cycle is a baseball continuum on which every team resides. To measure a team's place in the cycle, assess its talent in the majors and minors. Can the players in the organization, mixed with a few trade acquisitions and free agents the team could reasonably sign, yield a competitive team? More precisely, can the team expect to compete while its current core of major-league players remain productive and under contract?'

The Cubs are clearly on the downward side of the success cycle and the signing of Dunn will not change that.

Submitted by Paul Noce
on Tue, 08/24/2010 - 12:45pm

Dunn, who is demanding $15 million a year for 4 years, has had his number of walks cut in half this season. You're talking about signing him for the years he will be 31, 32, 33, 34. He runs like a one legged buffalo. He plays defense like a person having a seizure. I'm pretty sure he's borderline retarded, and let's let Hendry throw another horrible contract at him.

Seriously, if Hendry tries to sign him then Hendry should be fired on the spot. Did we not learn anything from all the other horrible deals Hendry keeps signing?

Even the guys on MLB Network a month ago said no National League team should sign him longer than 2 years because most front office people don't think Dunn will be able to play a position in 2 years.

For how "great" so many people think he is, ever stop to wonder why his "greatness" never helps his teams win games? They're always in danger of finishing in last place, probably because he is a one dimensional suckfest. He's Dave Kingman, who also never helped anyone win anything, and Kingman was a better defensive first baseman than Dunn (which isn't a compliment to Kingman).

Submitted by big_lowitzki
on Tue, 08/24/2010 - 1:09pm

For how "great" so many people think he is, ever stop to wonder why his "greatness" never helps his teams win games?

Probably because baseball is a team game, and Dunn has been surrounded with some pretty lousy talent.

Submitted by Rob G.
on Tue, 08/24/2010 - 1:15pm

and he's a terrible defender that has significantly weighed down his offensive contributions.

He's not as bad at 1b though as lf.

Submitted by Dr. aaron b
on Tue, 08/24/2010 - 1:31pm

Are we signing him to play SS?

What the hell difference does his Outfield difference make to the Cubs? He will play First. Not exactly a premium defensive position.

Submitted by crunch
on Tue, 08/24/2010 - 1:35pm

ever see castro throw a ball?

Submitted by Rob G.
on Tue, 08/24/2010 - 1:36pm

didn't say otherwise, doesn't mean you can put someone terrible out there.

That being said, he seems to handle 1b well enough.

If he's taking another 2/20ishM deal, then I'm all for it if that fits the Cubs budgets. Seems like he wants more this time around, but who knows.

Submitted by crunch
on Tue, 08/24/2010 - 1:39pm

at his age i'd be surprised to see anything less than 3-7 years...especially with a as-of-now good looking 1st base market coming up in 2011/2012 offseason.

Submitted by Dr. aaron b
on Tue, 08/24/2010 - 1:43pm

I'd be ok going 4/48 to 4/52 with him. Though I would prefer a 3 year deal.

If we can pay Fukudome and Carlos F'n Silva that kind of money. Then Dunn would qualify as an absolute bargain.

Submitted by Charlie
on Tue, 08/24/2010 - 3:17pm

"If we can pay Fukudome and Carlos F'n Silva that kind of money"

This logic is insane.

Submitted by Dr. aaron b
on Tue, 08/24/2010 - 3:45pm

Much less insane than a future relying on Colvin and Marquez Smith.

Lets let this system develop ONE MLB hitter before we start planning on being the Twins 2.0

Submitted by The Real Neal
on Tue, 08/24/2010 - 3:45pm

So Soto and Castro aren't MLB hitters?

Submitted by Rob G.
on Tue, 08/24/2010 - 3:46pm

Lets let this system develop ONE MLB hitter before we start planning on being the Twins 2.0

Geovany Soto

Castro and Colvin will join him soon.

Submitted by Dr. aaron b
on Tue, 08/24/2010 - 3:53pm

Soto I will give you. Castro looks like a keeper as well. Colvin is likely a 4th outfielder on a good team.

Still haven't seen a "Star" level guy.

Submitted by springs
on Tue, 08/24/2010 - 6:12pm

Castro is a 20 year old who is challenging to lead the league in hitting -- that has star written all over it unless you are obsessed with power.

Soto's hitting (both SLG and OBP) is rather strong when compared with others at his position. Soto has been all-star caliber for 2 of his first 3 full years in the league.

And while you may be right about Colvin's final results, he is leading the national league rookies in home runs, which is something I would have never predicted.

While we have been previously terrible, I would say the Cubs system is doing much better at the moment.

And I would much rather roll the dice on Colvin and Marquez Smith (and some part of Vitters, Jackson, Guyers, Castillo, Clevenger, Snyder, Hoffpauir, etc., to name only AA and AAA players) than overpay for Adam Dunn so that we can have Soriano and Dunn both playing terrible defense, not running, striking out too much and hitting 30 HRs/year.

Submitted by Mitterwald
on Tue, 08/24/2010 - 11:36am

Was I the only one that noticed that the Cubs made Livan throw 121 pitches in fewer than five innings last night? They drew six walks (plus two HBPs), which seems to be more than they have drawn in a month. Even Ramirez drew two walks. Plus, Quade put DeWitt and his OBP at the top of the order.

Also, he put a damper on the Colvin-to-first-base talk. I'm inclined to think that Quade understands that even if Colvin fielded like Keith Hernandez that he can't hit enough to carry the position, so it would be a waste of time.

Has Quade been underestimated? Does Ryne Sandberg know what OBP is?

Submitted by Rob G.
on Tue, 08/24/2010 - 12:13pm

if Colvin fielded like Keith Hernandez that he can't hit enough to carry the position

if Colvin fielded like Keith Hernandez with a .502 SLG he'd be a Hall of Famer at first base.

Submitted by Dr. aaron b
on Tue, 08/24/2010 - 12:32pm

He was a .785 OPS 465 Slugging guy in the Minors.

He hasn't really hit since June. Expecting that guy to slug .500 and learn the strike zone at 25-26 seems like some serious wishful thinking/hoping.

Submitted by John Beasley
on Tue, 08/24/2010 - 1:36pm

Against THE Livan Hernandez? Hot damn.

Seriously, when has Hernandez ever pitched well against the Cubs? I mean, except for: http://scores.espn.go.com/mlb/boxscore?gameId...

Submitted by Tito
on Tue, 08/24/2010 - 2:31pm

He does have a 2.78 ERA in 11 Wrigley Field starts (not including that damn playoff game), so...

Submitted by The Real Neal
on Tue, 08/24/2010 - 2:38pm

...sign him to a four year $40 million contract?

Submitted by navigator
on Tue, 08/24/2010 - 2:41pm

how about 3/44?

Submitted by springs
on Tue, 08/24/2010 - 6:15pm

We would only accept that if we can also give him a NTC and if the salaries for the 4 years were paid $2mm, $3mm, $17mm and $18mm.

Submitted by Rob G.
on Tue, 08/24/2010 - 12:09pm

where did this Colvin doesn't hit enough for a 1b myth get started? Especially if he can be a plus defender? Not that I know he would be, but seems like a move he could easily make the move.

He has a .350 wOBA which would put him 16th among qualified first basemen out of 28(ahead of Berkman, Lee, Pena, Ike Davis btw) and he'll be 25 next year with a reasonable BABIP. A little high on the HR/FB but we don't know his baseline yet. He's 15th in the league for HR/AB with at least 300 PA's and with 600 PA's would be on pace for 36 HR's on the year. Anyone would take 36 HR's out of their first basemen.

and once again, he's gonna be 25 next year. If they can get a cheap first basemen AND move Fukudome or Soriano, fine, but good luck with that. But it seems easier to move him to 1b for a year, I don't see how its gonna hurt his development much.

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=1b&...

not that I think the Cubs will be much of a player in free agency, but smarter to make a run at Cliff Lee or starting pitching than waste money on Dunn at 1b.

Submitted by Dr. aaron b
on Tue, 08/24/2010 - 12:39pm

-He will be 25 next month.

-He couldn't break an .800 OPS in the minors

-His OBP is creeping closer to sub 300

Aside from a hot April and May he hasn't hit enough to be a Center fielder. Much less a first baseman.

Post All-Star 120 21 28 5 2 6 14 11 2 35 2 1 .233 .308 .458 .766

Submitted by Rob G.
on Tue, 08/24/2010 - 12:45pm

-He will be 25 next month.

your baseball age is generally determined by what age you are by July 1st, pretty standard operating procedure. Next year will be his age 25 season.

He couldn't break an .800 OPS in the minors
he also hit a HR every 30 AB's in the minors. Do you need a list of guys that developed power as they got in their mid 20's?

His OBP is creeping closer to sub 300
he will never be much of an OBP guy, that's for certain

Aside from a hot April and May he hasn't hit enough to be a Center fielder. Much less a first baseman.
An inconsistent 24 year old in his first major league season? Crazy. He had an .857 OPS in July btw. A .350 wOBA puts him with Vernon Wells, McCutchen and around 11th in the majors among CF's and ahead of Victorino, Kemp, A. Jackson, Upton, Rios and for the bare minimum salary.

Submitted by The Real Neal
on Tue, 08/24/2010 - 2:39pm

He's also a guy who had a torn ligament in his elbow for most of his minor's career.

Submitted by Dr. aaron b
on Tue, 08/24/2010 - 12:37pm

At some point you need to score runs to win Rob.

And as a fan I will be disgusted if we roll out an opening day roster with 130 Million Dollars and 65 wins worth of talent.

Just saying

Submitted by Rob G.
on Tue, 08/24/2010 - 12:55pm

At some point you need to score runs to win Rob.

sure. I have no problem with Dunn, just depends on what he ends up with and how many years. He's a terrible middle of the order hitter anyway, he either walks, K's or hits a home and does the first two much more than the last. He's always around 100 RBI's despite nearly 40 HR's every year, which I don't think is that special and he is a poor defender and on the down side of the age cycle.

That being said, Cubs need as much help with the starting staff as they do the offense and rather see them spend their big FA dollars on guys on the right side of 30 and if they don't exist in this next FA market, wait until they do.

The team is building a decent crop of young talent that they'd be better served to surround with vets that they can get cheap like Byrd or A. Huff last year (as you suggested), than tying up 4 years into Dunn. And with the way arbitration has gone lately, you can get guys like Kelly Johnson if you're patient.

Submitted by Dr. aaron b
on Tue, 08/24/2010 - 1:39pm

There is a HUGE difference between Dunn and the Kelly Johnson's and Marlon Byrd's of the world.

It just boils down to the goal of 2011 and 2012? Are we pushing for contention or are we punting and resigning ourselves to 65-70 win territory for the foreseeable future?

If we had a ML system full of studs then I could understand a foundation up rebuild. But if the plan is to have Colvin and Marquez Smith man the infield corners and anchor this lineup. Well then that plan absolutely Sucks.

Submitted by Rob G.
on Tue, 08/24/2010 - 1:45pm

the Nats were coming off a 59-win season in 2008 and signed Dunn and won 58 games the next season.

How much of a difference do you think he's going to make to a 66 win Cubs team? Or is there more to your Cubs rebuilding plan for 2011?

and btw Dun was worth 1.2 wins in 2009 and 3.3 so far in 2010. Johnson worth 4.3 so far this year and Byrd 4.4. Dunn's been more consistent in his career, but not sure the Cubs should be tying themselves up to large deals with the team they have.

But it all depends on what Dunn wants, the Cubs budget and hopeful plan they have. But they'll need a lot more than Dunn to fix their offense.

Submitted by Dr. aaron b
on Tue, 08/24/2010 - 1:51pm

Then need another quality starting pitcher. Cliff Lee is probably a pipe dream. But I would be OK with a good #3 level starter. Javy Vazquez or a Jeremy Guthrie.

Then maybe try and sign a Kevin Millwood and a couple of Non-Tender-ish Bullpen Righties to incentive laden spring training contracts.

And someone to be insurance for Aramis Ramirez. Maybe Marquez Smith fits that bill? But the organization needs to be sure. Maybe you can get a Mike Lowell type of guy to back up 1st and 3rd?

Submitted by Paul Noce
on Tue, 08/24/2010 - 4:01pm

We had a Mike Lowell type of guy to start this season, Chad Tracy.

Submitted by Dr. aaron b
on Tue, 08/24/2010 - 1:54pm

I buy into alot the Sabre theories. However I think win shares are very much over rated.

To me it's about getting a Lefty masher to stick in the middle of a lineup. Not another 7th place hitter who plays a weighted defensive position.

Submitted by crunch
on Tue, 08/24/2010 - 1:59pm

win shares are a stupid joke...

that said, they need money shares to do dunn + anyone.

maybe they'll see huge crowds in STL and choose to not cut the payroll too much.

matt holliday's contract and the insecurity of the future economy (especially baseball's economy) leads me to believe dunn is going to want $$$ + years, though.

Submitted by Dr. aaron b
on Tue, 08/24/2010 - 2:13pm

I think they could add all that fairly easily. We have a ton of money coming off the books (30 Mil) after the 2011 season. So just a small amount of back-loading could get it done.

For all the flack the Ricketts has taken. He DID raise the payroll 10 Million this year from last. If he was truly a hardliner. He wouldn't have allowed Hendry to add the Nady,Byrd,Grabow money.

Submitted by Rob G.
on Tue, 08/24/2010 - 2:18pm

I buy into alot the Sabre theories. However I think win shares are very much over rated.

it's WAR, not Win Shares

and whatever you want to use, guys like Byrd and Johnson didn't tie up your payroll and provided the same or better overall production.

To me it's about getting a Lefty masher to stick in the middle of a lineup.

exactly what the 2009 Nats thought, worked perfectly.

The Cubs aren't that close, they got old quick. So either you go all in like after 2006 and spend a ton or you let your young players develop and fill in the gaps without tying yourself into multi-year deals.

Submitted by Dr. aaron b
on Tue, 08/24/2010 - 3:05pm

What would Johnson and Byrd's WAR be if they played first base?

And I'd say Dunn was the least of the Nationals problems. That rotation last year was weaker than any MLB team in recent memory.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/WSN/2...

Submitted by Rob Richardson
on Tue, 08/24/2010 - 3:08pm

The point is that Dunn was not the solution for the Nationals, because as you point out they have lots of problems, and Dunn will not be the solution for the 2011 Cubs because like the 2010 Nationals they have a lot of problems.

Submitted by Rob G.
on Tue, 08/24/2010 - 3:15pm

What would Johnson and Byrd's WAR be if they played first base?

less.

A. Huff would be a good 1b value example if you want. What aren't you understanding?

Cubs have a budget next year, I don't know what it is but doesn't seem wise to bust it when they will doubtfully contend. Now if they plan on adding Cliff Lee, Lilly along with Dunn and another bat probably at 2b, go for it.

But with Adrian Gonzalez, Pujols and who knows who else that will eventually become available after 2011 when the Cubs might be good again, why should they be tying themselves up into a 4-year deal for a guy on the wrong side of 30 and hardly a difference maker.

And I'd say Dunn was the least of the Nationals problems. That rotation last year was weaker than any MLB team in recent memory.

he didn't help a team that was almost as shitty as the 2010 Cubs though and he'll be 2 years older.

Submitted by Dr. aaron b
on Tue, 08/24/2010 - 3:36pm

So is Adrian Gonzalez a 8/160 a better value than Dunn at 4/48 or 4/52?

Budget or not, no way is Ricketts going to just "Tank" next season. Unless the projected budget is to get this thing under 100 Million in total Payroll.

You could easily add Dunn, Guthrie and a couple of minor pieces and STILL BE IN THE BUDGET.

Submitted by crunch
on Tue, 08/24/2010 - 3:38pm

while i don't doubt they'll look for a bat, they need to shift either fuku/soriano to even find a place for one.

they need pitching so bad it's painful...starting and pen.

Submitted by Dr. aaron b
on Tue, 08/24/2010 - 3:41pm

The payroll was raised from 135 to 145 THIS season. Even if we go back to the 130 range. I still count about 15 Million that should be available.

http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=t9K9o3...

I figure about 10 Million in arbitration to Soto,Marmol,Gorzy and Marshall. I non tender every other arbitration eligible guy.

Submitted by crunch
on Tue, 08/24/2010 - 3:44pm

when i say pitching i mean multiple guys...including a starter worth a damn.

dumpster/wells/silva/gorz/Z(maybe) is what's on tap right now.

the pen is pretty much marmol/marshall and russell if he can get his shit together.

Submitted by Dr. aaron b
on Tue, 08/24/2010 - 3:51pm

There is a gaping hole at first. Why would we need to shift anyone to find a spot?

Dempster
Guthrie
Z
Gorzy
Silva/Wells/Cashner/Jay Jackson

Looks like a decent MLB average rotation.

Marmol is a good closer.
Marshall has pitched well in a setup role.
Grabow is probably league average most years.

So we only need to find 4 relievers out of this years Chicago shuttle and the bargain bin this offseason.

I don't think we are WS contenders. But I do think that adding Dunn and Guthrie to THIS roster can make us a .500ish team. Once we are there, then a few breaks puts us right into 85-88 win territory. Most seasons that equals NL Central contention.

Submitted by crunch
on Tue, 08/24/2010 - 3:53pm

if you think this is a .500 team WITH dunn and guthrie why would you even want dunn here rather than waiting another year and getting a guy who actually wants to play baseball for a living?

Submitted by Paul Noce
on Tue, 08/24/2010 - 4:10pm

I agree, I don't see the logic in signing Dunn to a bad contract (or even a more presentable one) when the team is not going to contend with him. An acceptable deal on Dunn would be 1-2 years at $10-12 million per year. Anything above those numbers is insane. And if it were me, I would stay away from players like Dunn who offer nothing but power. Even his walk numbers are falling, which is a bad sign. He's NOT a clutch hitter. (.251 career avg drops to .228 with RISP)

Of course Hendry will go ape shit and do anything he can to sign Dunn, because he's Hendry's type of player - slow, poor defense, one dimensional power hitter who strikes out a million times.

I just don't know how this team can continue to give out horrible bloated contracts to over 30 vets and keep being surprised when it doesn't work out. If Hendry hasn't learned from his mistakes it's time he gets another job.

If we stopped looking at the Cubs as our favorite baseball team but instead we just thought of it strictly as a business, and the manager keeps making horrible decisions that tie up the companies' money and damage performance for years at a time, he would be fired.

Submitted by Rob Richardson
on Tue, 08/24/2010 - 4:02pm

I think I see the problem. You, like Ed Lynch and Andy McPhail, just want to compete for the NL Central and Dunn certainly lets you do that. I on the other hand want the build the Cubs to beat the Yankees. The only way we will be able to do that is to NOT sign older players to large contracts unless they put us over the top.

Submitted by Dr. aaron b
on Tue, 08/24/2010 - 4:09pm

So installing Marquez Smith and Tyler Colvin makes us the Yankees?

The Cubs are a big market team. We can flex our financial muscles. There is absolutely NO REASON for the Cubs. In baseballs current revenue system to EVER PUNT AND TANK A SEASON ON PURPOSE.

Am I proposing giving Dunn a lifetime contract? No

But he isn't blocking anybody on the horizon. We have zero impact bats in the system. What can be the harm?

Ultimately I would love for this system to be productive enough for us to follow a Boston Red Sox model. It just isn't at that point. And no way do I want us to lose 100 games a year until we have a system like the Devil Rays. Nothing wrong with being competitive and seeing what happens, IMHO.

Submitted by crunch
on Tue, 08/24/2010 - 4:12pm

marquez smith isn't on anyone's radar until 2012.

he's a non-issue and may never be an issue.

Submitted by Rob Richardson
on Tue, 08/24/2010 - 4:29pm

No Marquez Smith and Tyler Colvin do not make us the Yankees that is kind of the point. We are a long way away from winning that one big signing is not going to fix that.

While the Cubs are a large payroll team, the Yankees payroll is nearly twice what we spend so out spending them will not work.

In stead we should sheppard our limited resources to be used to take on salary dump players at a cost of no talent (Ramirez and Lee are examples) or sign free agents when we have a core of solid young (cheap) players who need a piece or two to put them over the top (this was why Fukodome was signed).

Over the past ten years this has been the plan, unfortunately it didn’t worked because of injuries (Prior and Wood), bad luck (Bartman) and a failure in the play-off after a 97 win season.

I guess the difference is that I don't want to spend money on an older player just so we don't lose 100 games.

The Cubs are going to be bad the next couple of season, deal with it. After 2011/2012 we should have a solid core of younger players (if the minor league predictions are to believed) and a lot of free money.

Submitted by Dr. aaron b
on Tue, 08/24/2010 - 5:08pm

I do very much advocate a strong ML system. It's seemed a little lately that Wilken and Co. pass on the obvious choices so they can show how smart they are. I do really hope to see us pick up the latin, and Draft spending.

Still, I don't think we need to punt. If we can add to the MLB roster. I think it needs to be done.

Submitted by The Real Neal
on Tue, 08/24/2010 - 8:01pm

Taking the obvious choices is what the Cubs did for 20 years. You can't build a farm system with a subscription to Baseball America.

The Cubs scouts know so much more collectively than any of these internet "experts" it's not even funny.

Submitted by Dr. aaron b
on Tue, 08/24/2010 - 9:53pm

The time to unearth the sleepers is in the later rounds. When Wilken fills the system with high impact bats. Then I will have trust he is smarter than everyone else.

Submitted by The Real Neal
on Wed, 08/25/2010 - 1:02pm

Who is "everyone else"?

I guess you prefer Christopher Marrero to Tyler Colvin and that proves who is smart again?

Submitted by Dr. aaron b
on Wed, 08/25/2010 - 1:14pm

I preferred Travis Snider.

Submitted by The Real Neal
on Wed, 08/25/2010 - 8:02pm

OK, but so far, if you go by hitting, fielding and baserunning, Colvin has been the better player.

Submitted by springs
on Tue, 08/24/2010 - 6:26pm

I just don't understand why you want to have Adam Dunn for $12+mm/year for 4 years, who at best would be projected to get us from 72 wins to 77 wins (and that is likely an exaggeration) rather than seeing if any of our minor leaguers in our system, who despite your statements are actually touted as potential impact players by orgs like Baseball America (read analysis of Jackson and Vitters, for example), and have the money to spend when we see if the kids are good and there are players available that can actually make a team significantly better.

From your analysis, we should never play kids until we are certain they are better than everyone on our team and anyone we can sign to fill that position in the free agent market.

Submitted by Dr. aaron b
on Tue, 08/24/2010 - 6:58pm

I'd love to plug in kids if they were having stellar years,and paid their dues.

I just don't think its wise to assume that these kids in the system are going to be stars. I don't see any analysis that predicts any kind of stardom for any ML bats. (Though Jackson will probably be useful in a Mike Cameron clone type of way).

I just can't believe what I'm hearing. For years the Cubs pinched pennies and didn't put product on the field. Then they spent to be competitive. NOW WE WANT THEM TO BE CHEAP AGAIN?

I'm at a loss????

Submitted by Rob G.
on Tue, 08/24/2010 - 7:10pm

I just can't believe what I'm hearing. For years the Cubs pinched pennies and didn't put product on the field. Then they spent to be competitive. NOW WE WANT THEM TO BE CHEAP AGAIN?

that summarizes the argument perfectly.

Submitted by Rob G.
on Tue, 08/24/2010 - 3:40pm

You could easily add Dunn, Guthrie and a couple of minor pieces and STILL BE IN THE BUDGET.

What's the Cubs budget in 2011?

Submitted by The Real Neal
on Tue, 08/24/2010 - 4:04pm

What's the Cubs budget in 2011?

Enough to add Dunn, Guthrie and a couple of minor pieces. Try to keep up, will ya?

Submitted by Rob G.
on Tue, 08/24/2010 - 12:17pm

http://rangersblog.dallasnews.com/archives/20...

shocking news, Colin Cowherd said something stupid.

Submitted by The Real Neal
on Tue, 08/24/2010 - 12:27pm

I used to listen to him for a sports talk fix only because Rome was his competition. Luckily in Houston we have a third option now during my lunch break. It's a pretty strong condemnation of ESPN that either of these guys have jobs, neverless are features for their networks.

Submitted by crunch
on Tue, 08/24/2010 - 2:41pm

curious loser roundup...

2003 first round heroin addict jeff allison...

25 years old, 5.10era in AA...102.1ip 119h 27bb 50k

2004 first round prick matt bush...

24 years old, 3.29 era in R and A+...13.2ip 9h 3bb 20k

Submitted by Rob G.
on Tue, 08/24/2010 - 2:47pm

Jeff Baker in RF? When did this start happening? and batting 5th.

At least Soto moved up to 6th, offset by Baker hitting 5th though

DeWitt 2B, Castro SS, Nady 1B, Ramirez 3B, Baker RF, Soto C, Soriano LF, Colvin CF, Zambrano P

Submitted by crunch
on Tue, 08/24/2010 - 2:53pm

damn u dusty!

*shakes fist*

Submitted by The Real Neal
on Tue, 08/24/2010 - 4:06pm

You have three LH batters and six RH batters. There is only one way to fuck it up so that they all bat in a row - and what does our new manager do?

Submitted by Tito
on Tue, 08/24/2010 - 4:44pm

Is your issue the RHs batting in a row? Because with Zambrano a SH, the LHs are not in a row.

Submitted by The Real Neal
on Tue, 08/24/2010 - 8:03pm

Oh, yeah, I forgot that Lannan was a lefty, but still, it makes life easy on the pitchers when they so seldom have to face guys on the other side of the batter's box.

Submitted by Rob G.
on Tue, 08/24/2010 - 2:52pm

http://twitter.com/CubsStats23/status/2202552...

Cubs 15-30 in 1-run games, 18th worst winning percentage for a full (albeit incomplete) season in last 30 years in 1-run games.

Submitted by The Real Neal
on Tue, 08/24/2010 - 4:13pm

More importantly, in my mind, is that their 15 games and counting under ties them for 15th worst - but not as bad as the 2002 Cubs (18 under). It would be really interesting if someone's got 10 minutes or so to see how the managers who authored those worst 30 or so seasons faired. We know how ours did.

Submitted by crunch
on Tue, 08/24/2010 - 4:22pm

file under "wtf, really? oh, nevermind...coleman is here, too."

scott "where's the plate" maine called up from AAA...another useless lefty reliever...awesome.

justin "is he still with the big league team" berg sent down.

Submitted by VirginiaPhil
on Tue, 08/24/2010 - 4:55pm

Maine deserves it. 33 hits, 47 Ks in 41 innings.

Submitted by Wes
on Tue, 08/24/2010 - 5:10pm

But he walks everybody on the planet and has a rather pedestrian ERA. That's hardly deserving it.

Submitted by The Real Neal
on Tue, 08/24/2010 - 8:04pm

What did Berg do to get called up again?

Submitted by big_lowitzki
on Tue, 08/24/2010 - 9:07pm

Walks don't matter in VA Phil's world.

Submitted by VirginiaPhil
on Wed, 08/25/2010 - 2:07pm

J.R. Mathes, 28-year-old Iowa lefty, never had a cup of coffee in the majors and probably never will: in seven seasons, his bb/9 is under 2.

Jeremy Papelbon, 27-year-old lefty back in AA this year, is stingy with walks, 11 this year in 65 innings.

Why didn't they get promoted over Maine? Why will they be passed over next year in favor of Gaub, Buchter and Beliveau, just to name lefty relievers?

Submitted by The Real Neal
on Wed, 08/25/2010 - 2:15pm

You've lost the thread here. The contention is that the Cubs call up the wrong guys - you can't prove that theory incorrect by pointing to Mitch Atkins and Justin Berg.

Submitted by crunch
on Wed, 08/25/2010 - 3:14pm

he's literally a guy who pitching to 1/2s of the plate because his control isn't there. he's a "general area" guy.

he's getting his Ks off his slider/"slurve"...and it's a junky one.

the weird/not-so-weird thing is he's got good motion and mechanics...he's just not the pitcher his arm wants him to be.

look beyond the numbers.

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