Baseball America's Top 10 Cubs Prospects for 2011

BA put out it's top 10 Cubs' prospects today. I usually put together the compilation of all the major lists, but don't quite have the time today. I'll try put together something later this week. To the rankings...

  1. Chris Archer
  2. Brett Jackson
  3. Trey McNutt
  4. Hak-Ju Lee
  5. Josh Vitters
  6. Chris Carpenter
  7. Matt Szczur
  8. Hayden Simpson
  9. Rafael Dolis
  10. Brandon Guyer

I am amused that they don't think Alfonso Soriano will be with the team in 2014, but Carlos Zambrano will.

I'm more curious where guys like Archer, Jackson and McNutt will end up in the top 100 overall list, because you know, every team has to have a #1 prospect no matter how good or bad the system is.

Past lists can be found at Wiklified.

Tags: 
Cubs Prospects
Submitted by Rob G. on Tue, 01/04/2011 - 3:06pm
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Comments

Submitted by Rob G.
on Tue, 01/04/2011 - 3:23pm

Marvin Lewis somehow keeps his job with Cincy, he's the Jim Hendry of football at this point.

Broncos want a 2nd round pick for Orton, my daughters want a pony. We'll see who blinks first.

Submitted by The E-Man
on Tue, 01/04/2011 - 4:00pm

...he's the Jim Hendry of football at this point.

Actually, I had thought Matt Millen was a better Hendry comparison.

But Marvin Lewis is certainly acceptable.

Submitted by The Real Neal
on Tue, 01/04/2011 - 4:02pm

Well according to the Bears banter of last week, Angelo is a fine Hendry comparison, and I would tend to agree.

Submitted by The E-Man
on Tue, 01/04/2011 - 4:57pm

If we're talking, "internal candidates", I am on-board.

Submitted by toonsterwu
on Wed, 01/05/2011 - 3:06pm

To be fair to Marvin, that's a pretty crappy situation he's in. Bad ownership, no scouting department, and your franchise QB not playing up to par. Add in two aging WR's that don't provide good chemistry, and it's tough.

I think the Broncos might get a 2nd for Orton. This is an overrated QB class. Blaine Gabbert is being talked about in the early-mid first, and I like Gabbert, but not that high. Mallett has a lot more work, and Jake Locker needs to go on the Aaron Rodgers plan. Cam Newton probably goes in the first on "hype/excitement", but he's a work in progress. Orton was very solid this year. I consider him more of a plus game manager, but that's still good enough. If you are a team that needs a vet QB ... a first on a QB or fill another need and grab Orton, who isn't old? For example, let's say ... the Cardinals. Grab Orton and fill a need with the first makes a ton of sense. The Niners make some sense as well (and they have an extra 4th to fill a need). Even the Vikings make some sense, although it sounds like a lot of FA's are preparing to bolt.

Submitted by Rob G.
on Wed, 01/05/2011 - 3:29pm

I'm sure a few times might be interested in Orton (vikes, 49ers, Panthers, Cardinals, Redskins, Raiders, etc

I doubt any of them would give a high 2nd round pick though, considering a team looking for a QB next year probably sucked the season before.

Submitted by toonsterwu
on Wed, 01/05/2011 - 3:41pm

Teams give a lot for QB's. Remember the Matt Schaub trade? Swap of 8 and 10, plus 2nd rounders in 07 and 08. Each team calculates future value of picks slightly differently (mostly to rationalize a deal), but that was late first-early 2nd round value for a 25 year old QB with minimal experience (161 regular season attempts before the trade). I don't love Orton, but he's coming off two back to back years of 3500+ yards and has shown a lot more improvement from 2005. Put him in an offense that maximizes his skills (ability to read defenses and make the intermediate throws) and he can excel. With the way the spread offense is en vogue these days, that's a lot of teams where he could potentially fit.

Taking a step back and looking at the teams that might be looking for QB's -

Niners - A lot of decisions to be made, but they have a decent-solid offensive line (when healthy), a good RB, and good, albeit, prima donna-ish, WR options. A good QB plugged in there could get things churning. Defensively, a lot more issues (do they stick with the 3-4 ... if so, Manusky rotated his rush backers, but at some point, you need an elite guy. If not, then they need a top edge guy). The understated thing about the upcoming draft is that, while it is DL heavy, there are few guys that project as elite pass rushers at the top right now (Bowers, Quinn (but he missed this year)).

Vikings - Comes down to what happens with a lot of the veterans. A lot of defensive voids to fill, but say they manage to bring back most of the guys, sans Pat Williams, and the CB's get healthy. Then, they could be a good QB away from being competitivve again. That said, my gut feeling is that Cam Newton's floor is Minnesota. Just a feel on that one.

Cardinals - Their offensive playcalling and OL has to improve, but Larry Fitz is about to hit FA soon. The best way to keep him around would be to improve the QB spot ASAP.

I think Panthers are going Luck if he comes out. If not, I think they give Clausen another twirl. Best QB (Luck that is) prospect in the past decade, IMO.

I think it's quite possible that they'll garner high 2nd value. It might not come in a straight high 2nd pick swap (though I wouldn't rule it out), and may depend more on how "value", though.

Broncos are an interesting spot for any new HC. on the one hand, there's Elway hanging over, and you might have to go with Tebow, Moreno, Thomas as your key offensive skill guys, all with enough questions, along with big questions defensively. On the other hand, there's a decent OL, you potentially have two solid edge guys, and if you can net an pick or two for Orton, you could potentially have 4 picks in the first 2 rounds to rebuild with (2nd from Miami for B. Marshall).

Submitted by Rob G.
on Wed, 01/05/2011 - 3:52pm

Orton was in the best offense he'll ever get to play for with Denver. I think they throw the ball 99.5% of the time (unofficial numbers) and as shitty as McDaniels was a player evaluator and head coach, he can scheme offense.

I don't doubt Orton will have some demand, I doubt it will be of 2nd round value, especially not high 2nd round value without the Broncos having to throw in a pick of their own.

Schaub being unproven was an asset for the Falcons at the time, he was well regarded as someone that deserved a starting job and could put up big numbers. For the most part, he's proven them right.

Orton is regarded as guy to keep the spot warm or compete with other guys for the job. I do think Cardinals would be a decent fit for him though.

Submitted by toonsterwu
on Wed, 01/05/2011 - 6:49pm

if you take a step back and look at McD's offense, though, it's base principles run with a lot of what other NFL teams are doing - spreading it out, finding mismatches. I don't think Orton is limited to only having success in McD's offense - his basic template for success (Orton that is) is to find a situation where he's allowed to read the field and deliver. He's basically Matt Cassel.

I think you might have a case that he won't get a straight 2nd round pick (I do think it's possible, but I think there's a better case that they won't get a straight pick), but I definitely think he'll garner 2nd round value. He'll be the 2nd most highly sought after veteran QB this offseason (Kolb being first).

Only time will tell.

Submitted by The Real Neal
on Wed, 01/05/2011 - 7:23pm

Schaub's arm is actually a bit short for an NFL quarterback. It's only marginally better than Orton's.

Submitted by toonsterwu
on Wed, 01/05/2011 - 7:33pm

Yup. As a UVA fan, it pains me to say it, but yeah, his arm isn't top notch (and yet, most consider him an elite QB - I believe he was on John Clayton's elite QB list). But if you watch Houston games, they scheme very well to hide his deficiencies. He struggles occasionally on the deep balls and the hard 15 yard out type stuff. I mean, Schaub's arm is still above average for NFL standards, but nothing special.

Personally, I think Schaub is a plus game manager as well, except that he's in a great offense with top personnel. Add in a strong run game, and the QB looks that much better.

Submitted by Rob G.
on Tue, 01/04/2011 - 3:35pm

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/05/sports/base...

"Voting for Hall Shouldn’t Be Guessing Who’s Guilty"

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/hof11/columns/s...

"Hall of Fame Getting Tougher"

http://mlb.fanhouse.com/2010/12/29/jeff-bagwe...

"Jeff Bagwell a 'No' for This Hall Voter"

Submitted by The Real Neal
on Tue, 01/04/2011 - 4:09pm

It sucks that Szczur isn't going to be in the system anymore.

Submitted by Jace
on Tue, 01/04/2011 - 4:35pm

http://www.delcotimes.com/articles/2010/12/31...

RN - Do you know something that I don't? This article makes it sound like he still has no idea what he's going to do....

Submitted by The Real Neal
on Tue, 01/04/2011 - 6:55pm

I looked around a bit and listened to the commentators during his playoff games and the impression I got was that if he's in the first three rounds he's going to play football.

I certainly could be wrong, but I mentally crossed him off the list at that time. Maybe being ranked here ahead of their first round pick will encourage him, but like I said he seemed headed to the NFL. With Danny Woodhead and the popularity of the Wildcat offense, I think he is really going to be a hot commodity following the senior bowl and combine.

Submitted by toonsterwu
on Wed, 01/05/2011 - 3:08pm

I tend to agree. I think he's headed for football unless the Cubs pony up more money. He has a good shot at 3rd, could go late 2nd, but at worst, will go by the 4th or 5th.

If the Cubs pony up, maybe he changes his mind, but is 500 K going to make the difference? Not sure. That said, Ba's writeup for him was fantastic, much better than I envisioned. If he's that good, and if the Cubs feel that good about him (considering BA talks to their Cubs folks to get input on the list), then the cubs should pony up.

Submitted by VirginiaPhil
on Tue, 01/04/2011 - 4:26pm

I was impressed by the concluding line in the summary:
"One pro scout who covered the Cubs opined that they had more future big leaguers than any other organization."

I realize that a future big leaguer is not necessarily a budding star, but big-league position players is just what the Cubs have been uniquely bad at producing. Things will change for the better once the Cubs have built their own talent infrastructure.

Also, someone tell Matt Szczur that he projects as the starting CF in 2014--get his mind off of football.

Submitted by Rob G.
on Tue, 01/04/2011 - 4:46pm

Things will change for the better once the Cubs have built their own talent infrastructure.

very true, but they've produced 4 regulars since 2006, think we can put that notion of developing position players to rest now.

Submitted by Dr. aaron b
on Wed, 01/05/2011 - 10:09am

Soto and ????????????

Submitted by Charlie
on Wed, 01/05/2011 - 11:03am

Colvin and Castro come to mind.

Submitted by The Real Neal
on Wed, 01/05/2011 - 11:08am

I was guessing Theriot was the fourth.

Submitted by Rob G.
on Wed, 01/05/2011 - 12:17pm

winners, I didn't say they were necessarily great, but regulars. Colvin I suppose will actually have to play a full season, but not gonna keep a 30 HR bat on the bench even with his OBP woes.

if you want to open it to other teams Pie, Cedeno and McGehee as well.

Submitted by Dr. aaron b
on Wed, 01/05/2011 - 12:34pm

Jury is out on Colvin at this point. But I guess even Brandon Moss is a "regular" if that's the criteria. Soto and Castro do look like the real deal though.

Funny that some of the best guys to come from the Cubs system were complete afterthoughts when they were in the system.

Soto,Theriot,McGehee,Jerry Blevins and Angel Pagan were all C level prospects that had almost zero hype behind them before they made it. Its almost like the Cubs themselves were shocked these guys are good?

Submitted by Ryno
on Wed, 01/05/2011 - 12:52pm

I really like Colvin. Fast hands... holy balls... fast. He's one of those that you want to have on your team while he's young.

"Funny that some of the best guys to come from the Cubs system were complete afterthoughts when they were in the system."

Marmol comes to mind. Not many people look for a closer crouching behind the plate on their AA team.

Submitted by Rob G.
on Wed, 01/05/2011 - 12:58pm

Marmol was a name a lot of teams asked about after 2006 I believe.

Submitted by Dr. aaron b
on Wed, 01/05/2011 - 1:24pm

I specifically remember Onari Fleita touting this kid back after the 2005 season. Though he'd be the "Closer of future". Which was funny because he was used as a starter when he first came up.

Submitted by Rob G.
on Wed, 01/05/2011 - 12:56pm

well besides Soto, they're all C level major leaguers too or lower in Theriot's case.

Pagan came from the mets system, think his only time in the Cubs minors was on rehab.

not a lot of relievers get love on prospect lists unless they have closer potential, Blevins was pretty well regarded as a potential loogy or bullpen arm, but no one ever gets too excited about those guys. I recall Hendry or Fleita saying flattering things about Blevins when they traded him, but you got to give up something to get something.

Submitted by Arizona Phil
on Wed, 01/05/2011 - 2:20pm

A 25-man roster of players originally signed by the Cubs who played in MLB in 2010:

* bats or throws left
# bats both

PITCHERS:
* Jerry Blevins
Andrew Cashner
* Scott Downs
Jon Garland
Carlos Marmol
* Sean Marshall
Sergio Mitre
Ricky Nolasco
Randy Wells
Kerry Wood
Michael Wuertz
Carlos Zambrano

CATCHERS:
Jose Molina
Geovany Soto

INFIELDERS:
Starlin Castro
Ronny Cedeno
Brendan Harris
* Eric Hinske
Casey McGehee
Ryan Theriot

OUTFIELDERS:
* Tyler Colvin
Jake Fox
* Corey Patterson
* Eric Patterson
* Felix Pie

Submitted by Dr. aaron b
on Wed, 01/05/2011 - 4:54pm

Is that the 62 Mets? Probably the worst MLB team in history.

Submitted by Paul Noce
on Wed, 01/05/2011 - 5:22pm

lol

Submitted by Craig A.
on Wed, 01/05/2011 - 11:34am

McGehee?

Submitted by Dr. aaron b
on Wed, 01/05/2011 - 12:08pm

Ronny Cedeno?

Submitted by Ryno
on Wed, 01/05/2011 - 12:53pm

Ouch.

Submitted by The Real Neal
on Tue, 01/04/2011 - 6:58pm

How would a pro scout both be able to cover the Cubs' six levels and have a useful opinion on the prospects for the other 29 teams?

Submitted by George Altman
on Tue, 01/04/2011 - 7:35pm

Maybe he reads a lot.

Submitted by crunch
on Tue, 01/04/2011 - 7:41pm

they talk a lot to each other and depending on how high in the organization he is he's been fed reports from other regions/levels.

though no scout is out there giving away everything about a player it's common for a scout to give another team's scout a legit answer to "so, what's this guy about?"

Submitted by The Real Neal
on Tue, 01/04/2011 - 8:58pm

Great, but we're talking about "what are these 1200 guys about" in this case. There's no one scout who has very good knowledge on the entire Cubs system. There may be 50 people in the universe qualified to make a sweeping judgement like that, and none of them are scouts.

Submitted by crunch
on Tue, 01/04/2011 - 9:02pm

yeah, i wouldn't put that much weight on what scouts say in passing about comparing organizations.

he just thinks the cubs look good compared to what he's seen and heard from others. his supposed #1 would be someone else's #5, etc etc...it's pretty unscientific stuff when applied to such a broad scope.

if you put a bunch of scouts together that haven't pissed each other off before it's usually an un-business-like scene.

Submitted by The Real Neal
on Tue, 01/04/2011 - 10:28pm

Yeah, it was a nice soundbite, but doesn't make much sense.

As to Szczur and what he could be, I was trying to think of a decent comp. Tim Raines with the arm to play CF? Let's hope the Cubs brass can convince him of that.

Submitted by QuietMan
on Tue, 01/04/2011 - 5:04pm

Best Power Hitter Brett Jackson

Praise for Jackson or slam on the system?

I seem to remember Jim Callis saying in a chat or on the radio that he thought Hak-Ju Lee would finish just outside the top 100 overall (101-110 range).

Submitted by Rob G.
on Tue, 01/04/2011 - 5:28pm

more concerned if any of the top 3 are top 20 players, but you know not like BA knows more than anyone else at this point.

A dozen prospect lists a year now and they all look the same.

Submitted by crunch
on Tue, 01/04/2011 - 5:35pm

jay jackson totally off the list...cold...cold...heh.

Submitted by Arizona Phil
on Tue, 01/04/2011 - 6:48pm

Submitted by QuietMan on Tue, 01/04/2011 - 5:04pm.
Best Power Hitter Brett Jackson

Praise for Jackson or slam on the system?

I seem to remember Jim Callis saying in a chat or on the radio that he thought Hak-Ju Lee would finish just outside the top 100 overall (101-110 range).

===========================================

Q-MAN: In his afternoon chat, BA's Jim Caliis says Josh Vitters and Reggie Golden probably have more raw power than Brett Jackson, but that B. Jackson has the most "usable" power (meaning he is more-likely to hit HR in MLB, because he is more-likely to succeed at the big league level). I would agree with that.

Also, during the course of the chat Callis mentioned that Alberto Cabrera is #11, Robinson Chirinos is #16, Welington Castillo is #17, Reggie Golden is #20, Logan Watkins is #21, and Ryan Flaherty is #22. Also, by deduction it's clear that Robinson Lopez, Jay Jackson, and D. J. Lemahieu are each rated somewhere in the Top 20, Brooks Raley is in the Top 30 (but Austin Kirk, Chris Rusin, Jeffry Antigua, Cam Greathouse, and Ben Wells are not), and Matt Cerda is #31. So therefore there are three more unknowns in the Top 20, three more #23-25, and four more in the Top 30. Also, John Gaub and Kyler Burke dropped out of the Top 30 (Burke was #11 last year), although Burke is still rated as having the "Best Outfield Arm" in the system.

Callis says the Cubs farm system is presently ranked #8 (overall) by BA because of its depth, is at the top of the N. L. Central with the Reds, and if Castro and Cashner still qualified as prospects the Cubs system would probably be ranked #2 (overall) behind only Kansas City.

Submitted by The Real Neal
on Tue, 01/04/2011 - 7:23pm

If Austin Kirk is not in your top 30, your system is in great shape...still some LF/1B mashers wouldn't go unapreciated.

Submitted by Rob G.
on Tue, 01/04/2011 - 7:24pm

and if Castro and Cashner still qualified as prospects the Cubs system would probably be ranked #2 (overall) behind only Kansas City.

BA death sentence.

Submitted by The Real Neal
on Wed, 01/05/2011 - 8:51am

Did you also note that they put Cashner as the #1 starter for their 2014 team?

Submitted by toonsterwu
on Wed, 01/05/2011 - 3:10pm

I'd say both. It's an indictment of the lack of power ... but I think Brett's power is a bit underrated. Wait, let me rephrase. I think his power ceiling is underrated. I think you can comfortably project 20-25 HR power for Brett (at his peak) right now. Say he cuts down on his K's a bit more (possible, since he has a good approach) and/or bulks up a bit (and perhaps moves to a corner OF role). It's not impossible that Brett pops 25-30 Hr's once or twice at his peak.

Of course, BA refers to usable power, as Golden probably has the most raw power in the system.

Submitted by jacos
on Tue, 01/04/2011 - 6:17pm

http://thebiglead.com/index.php/2011/01/04/ho...

Serious note, I hope he finds work

Submitted by Rob G.
on Tue, 01/04/2011 - 7:36pm

http://joeposnanski.si.com/2011/01/04/innocen...

I don’t think the Hall of Fame is a court. I don’t think a non-vote for the Hall of Fame is declaring guilt either. Ed is exactly right, when he says the Hall of Fame is an honor not a right. But you know what this part of the Baseball Hall of Fame really is? It’s a room in the baseball museum in Cooperstown where they put the plaques of the greatest players in baseball history. It’s a tourist attraction. It’s a place where fans go and remember their childhood, reminisce about the game, consider their connections. It’s so easy to get high and mighty about this thing, so easy to lose the whole point. I’m not sure how the Hall of Fame became about innocent and guilty in the first place. It’s a room overflowing with cheaters and liars and gamblers and fools. It’s a room overflowing with heroes and devoted fathers and good neighbors and nice men. But, really, it’s a room with the greatest baseball players ever along with some very good players along with some good players who had powerful lobbyists.

Submitted by The Real Neal
on Wed, 01/05/2011 - 7:02am

I wish one writer would bring up that Bagwell never bothered to champion the cause of testing for PED's. This "it wasn't my fault that other players used them" excuse is just lame. It was your fault, as well as the fault of all the players who didn't. You had 15 years to fix the problem, and never bothered because you thought you were making more money from it, so enjoy the consequences.

Submitted by jacos
on Wed, 01/05/2011 - 8:44am

Ding!

And show him video of his "diet" when he came into ST 30lbs lighter(he wasn't fat Soto)when MLB agreed to more testing.

Submitted by Cubster
on Tue, 01/04/2011 - 7:59pm

on the 3/44 front...

Nats sign Adam LaRoche for 2/16 (Gammons tweet and MASN report)

Dan Uggla signs 5/62 with Braves (Rosenthal tweet)

Submitted by The Real Neal
on Tue, 01/04/2011 - 10:25pm

I guess I like the Uggla deal better than the Beltre one, assuming the Braves move him to 3rd for 2012... crazy offseason.

Submitted by Ryno
on Wed, 01/05/2011 - 11:23am

Well, shit-yes, it's a better deal. Uggla should do very well in Atlanta.

Submitted by Cubster
on Tue, 01/04/2011 - 9:21pm

some silly tweet from Jon Morosi about Cubs not planning to upgrade at 2B so they aren't in on Michael Young from Texas

http://twitter.com/jonmorosi/status/223679715...

According to Cot's, Michael Young is in the third year of a 5/$80 deal (2009-2013). So that would work if they'll take Soriano back plus a mitt full of cash.

http://tinyurl.com/2asfqmo

Submitted by crunch
on Tue, 01/04/2011 - 9:42pm

after paying up for baker it seems they're willing to give dewitt/baker a run.

i don't have an issue with dewitt/baker, but i didn't have an issue with fontenot/baker pre-season 2010, either. heh...

Submitted by Rob G.
on Wed, 01/05/2011 - 2:05am

http://www.suntimes.com/sports/baseball/cubs/...

A major-league source said Tuesday the Cubs were close to trading for the power-pitching right-hander, just as the Rangers were committing a big multiyear deal to third baseman Adrian Beltre and appeared to be pursuing free-agent closer Rafael Soriano.

Kapman says 3 prospects would be involved

Levine earlier mentioned Hak-Ju Lee and Chirinos as likely being two of them. I imagine a decent SP would be the other one.

Submitted by crunch
on Wed, 01/05/2011 - 2:46am

about time this got/gets done...

this better not turn into another brian roberts...

even though i don't think garza turns the cubs into some powerhouse i feel it at least makes them competitive...plus i like having garza under club control for a few years so it's not just some token move.

dumpster/z/garza would at least put a solid 3 up top even if dumpster is the only real #1 type and a lot of clubs are sporting 2 #1 types...some with both guys better than the cubs #1.

Submitted by George Altman
on Wed, 01/05/2011 - 9:29am

Agreed.....I would prefer Archer or McNutt aren't the other prospect. H. Lee, Chirinos, and J. Jackson would suit me just fine for Garza.

Submitted by toonsterwu
on Wed, 01/05/2011 - 3:12pm

I love Dempster ... but "real #1"?

Submitted by Paul Noce
on Wed, 01/05/2011 - 9:26am

Olney says the deal is "not close" to being done and Rays are more likely to trade Garza in July.

One thing that's scary is Garza's groundball rate was around 35% last season.

Submitted by The Real Neal
on Wed, 01/05/2011 - 10:26am

Musket also debunked it. I think it makes sense for the Cubs to wait as well. Give it a month or two to know if adding a pitcher at the expense of the farm system makes a lot of sense. Right now, losing Lee, Chirinos and Archer seems like a lot to pay for just a chance at contending in the division.

Submitted by toonsterwu
on Wed, 01/05/2011 - 3:13pm

I'm not against that. Ideally, we'd protect Archer or McNutt, but realistically, one of them, probably McNutt, would be wanted. If that's the case, that'd make it tougher to swallow, but ... I don't think I'd be against it. You gotta give up something to get something ... and McNutt/Lee/Chirinos for a solid starting arm ... isn't great, but it isn't bad.

Submitted by John Beasley
on Wed, 01/05/2011 - 8:20am

I can't figure out why the market for Chris Young is so slow. Career ERA+ of 109, K:BB ratio > 2:1, and he showed at the end of the year that he's ready to compete again. I've read that guys with his type of height throwing off the mound have an added degree of deception equivalent to a few extra MPH. He seems like a no-brainer for the back of someone's rotation with #2 starter upside. And with all that - the Mets are denying that they even offered the guy $1M.

http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/01/04/...

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/rumors/post/Mets-...

Submitted by The Real Neal
on Wed, 01/05/2011 - 8:36am

He's never pitched 200 innings, and has a 2:1 FB/GB ratio for his career. I looked at his stats earlier this off-season... take him out of that ballpark in San Diego and he's a #4 guy with health issues.

Submitted by The E-Man
on Wed, 01/05/2011 - 9:28am

Its b/c he tried punching Derek Lee.

Or, is it the other way around?

Yeah, I am surprised as well as it seems that rehab projects are in fashion now (as well as lucrative for the rehabee).

Submitted by John Beasley
on Wed, 01/05/2011 - 9:55am

4.16 career road ERA in this market = at least $1M, no questions asked.

Submitted by The Real Neal
on Wed, 01/05/2011 - 10:21am

So the Mets who hadn't offered him a contract should have offered him a guaranteed $1.5 million contract, because of a news report?

The guy will get a deal, he just needs to wait a bit. Pavano, Penny and Bonderman are all out there as well, not to mention the trade candidates (Garza and Blanton being two of them).

Submitted by John Beasley
on Wed, 01/05/2011 - 11:12am

Yes, every GM should do whatever the media tells him to. You sure got my number.

Submitted by The Real Neal
on Wed, 01/05/2011 - 11:16am

"I can't figure out why the market for Chris Young is so slow."
1. He cannot pitch 200 innings, even when healthy
2. He throws a shit load of flyballs even when healthy, and his "good" seasons which happened 4 to 5 years ago weren't all that good park and BABIP normalized.
3. There are better/ healthier pitchers who haven't signed yet.

You're welcome.

Submitted by MikeC
on Wed, 01/05/2011 - 3:10pm

You might want to look back at his two best seasons and look at IP, hits and SO's.

I am sorry but when your throwing 170+ innings only giving up 118-130 hits and striking out nearly a batter per inning, you got some damn filthy stuff.

For a million bucks? Shit he would be a no brainer pick up with a high potential to be very good. Remember Carlos Marmol doesn't give up alot of hits strikes out alot of batters and is an extreme flyball pitcher.

You can do a whole lot worse with a million, like paying 1/3rd of Neifi's salary with it.

Submitted by The Real Neal
on Wed, 01/05/2011 - 3:25pm

Let's wait until he has a contract before we argue about whether he's getting underpaid.

Submitted by Ryno
on Wed, 01/05/2011 - 2:03pm

Maybe he wants too much.

Submitted by Dr. aaron b
on Wed, 01/05/2011 - 10:35am

I'm not completely convinced of this system right now? Archer and McNutt both kind of came out of nowhere last year. Jackson seems like a fairly sure Mike Cameron-esque prospect. Then everyone past the top 3 have huge question marks.

I wonder how much of the hype is big market hype? Similar to the Yankees and Red Sox prospects always being over hyped.

Submitted by The Real Neal
on Wed, 01/05/2011 - 11:11am

I don't think that the guys who rate the prospects get too wrapped up in the hype. BP had those three guys rated as 4 star prospects, which puts them in the 50-90 overall rankings, I think, and that's probably pretty fair. If McNutt and Archer repeat what they did last year, they probably become 5 star guys, and you can legitimately expect them to be #1ish or good #2 starters.

Pretty good interview with McNutt: http://www.news-journalonline.com/sports/base...

I like that he put a Cubs license plate on his truck he bought with our money.

Submitted by Ryno
on Wed, 01/05/2011 - 11:28am

After so many flops (Patterson, Samardzija, etc., etc., etc.) it's only natural to be skeptical of Cub prospects. That said, I'm sure the Cubs have some genuine talent in their minor league system as does most other major league franchises.

I'll be more excited about it when these d-bags get called up and thrive in the majors.

Submitted by VirginiaPhil
on Wed, 01/05/2011 - 1:32pm

There haven't been many recent flops. Patterson is getting to be an old example, and Samardzija is a special case, chosen more for athleticism and big-game experience than baseball skills. I suspect he was more Hendry's idea than Wilken's.

If Samardzija worries you, talk to Jim Callis, who yesterday made Szczur a top prospect based on eighteen games at Boise--and a lot of football.

Submitted by navigator
on Wed, 01/05/2011 - 2:28pm

Teflon Tim

lulz!!

Submitted by Rob G.
on Wed, 01/05/2011 - 1:03pm

joining Pat Gillick will be

(drumroll)

Blyleven(79.7%) and Alomar (90%)

581 ballots were cast.

Submitted by jacos
on Wed, 01/05/2011 - 1:11pm

Alomar must have had a helluva year last year.

Submitted by Paul Noce
on Wed, 01/05/2011 - 1:16pm

Well Alomar did have unprotected sex with two women while he knew he had HIV/AIDS, so that's gotta earn him some votes.

Submitted by Dr. aaron b
on Wed, 01/05/2011 - 1:25pm

Are you positive?

Submitted by Paul Noce
on Wed, 01/05/2011 - 1:36pm

http://www.nypost.com/p/news/national/wife_ta...

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=5...

Sued twice in the last 2 years over the HIV situation, the latest by his wife.

Alomar told the first woman he had been raped by two men when he was 17. He denied that publicly, and denied he has HIV, but quickly settled with the woman. Then a year later, just this past October, his wife sued him over the same thing.

http://www.associatedcontent.com/article/6185...

Like a lot of the guys in the Hall, scummy person, great player.

Submitted by Paul Noce
on Wed, 01/05/2011 - 1:50pm

I watched that MLB HoF special. It got interesting at one point when they had Gammons, Heyman, and Verducci on with Costas. Costas talked about not considering a player's morality with the steroid issue but instead consider the authenticity of their on-field performance, i.e., Mantle very well might not have been as nice a person as McGwire but you can't argue that his on-field performance wasn't more authentic than McGwire's.

But then they talked about Bonds and Clemons, two guys that were going to be HoF'ers until they started using PEDs. Now it's questionable how voters will respond. Heyman said that if they were a Hall of Famer before they took steroids he's still going to vote for them. That got Verducci a little upset, who said if you cheated you should be in the Hall and he's not voting for any of these guys.

Gammons didn't say much on the issue other than he liked the idea Costas had about changing the discussion to authenticity of stats. But I swear when Heyman said he would vote for steroid cheaters like Bonds and Clemens, there was a tiny nodding of the head by Gammons. I might be imagining things since he never chimed it.

Verducci said that some people say, 'well, there are racists and drunks and other bad apples in the Hall, what makes the steroid user's different?', and he said that the steroid users changed the outcome of games by cheating.

Submitted by crunch
on Wed, 01/05/2011 - 1:58pm

go verducci.

...and go bly...finally.

Submitted by Paul Noce
on Wed, 01/05/2011 - 2:07pm

I've thought for years that the very first time someone tests positive for a PED they should be banned from the Hall of Fame. That would be a strong deterrent for some of the egomaniacs and established vets who decide to 'supplement' their talent late in their career. It would also end much of this steroid/HoF discussion. Guys who were suspected but never tested positive would still be debated, but maybe many of them wouldn't have even used PED's if there were a stronger punishment, like no HoF eligibility.

Submitted by The Real Neal
on Wed, 01/05/2011 - 1:28pm

Alomar was clearly being punished for the spitting deal. I guess the AIDS thing (was that ever proven?) happened off the field (was that ever proven?), so not a baseball concern.

Submitted by Paul Noce
on Wed, 01/05/2011 - 1:28pm

MLB Network has a Hall of Fame special coverage going on now (1PM Central time).

Barry Larkin got 62 of the 75 percent needed. Among newcomers, Jeff Bagwell received 42 percent; Rafael Palmeiro, 11.

Submitted by The Real Neal
on Wed, 01/05/2011 - 1:57pm

Roberto Alomar 523 90.0%
Bert Blyleven 463 79.7%
Barry Larkin 361 62.1%
Jack Morris 311 53.5%
Lee Smith 263 45.3%
Jeff Bagwell 242 41.7%
Tim Raines 218 37.5%
Edgar Martinez 191 32.9%
Alan Trammell 141 24.3%
Larry Walker 118 20.3%
Mark McGwire 115 19.8%
Fred McGriff 104 17.9%
Dave Parker 89 15.3% - was his last chance
Don Mattingly 79 13.6%
Dale Murphy 73 12.6%
Rafael Palmeiro 64 11.0%
Juan Gonzalez 30 5.2%
-------------------------------
Off of next year's ballot
Harold Baines 28 4.8%
John Franco 27 4.6%
Kevin Brown 12 2.1%
Tino Martinez 6 1.0%
Marquis Grissom 4 0.7%
Al Leiter 4 0.7%
John Olerud 4 0.7%
B.J. Surhoff 2 0.3%
Bret Boone 1 0.2%
Benito Santiago 1 0.2%
Carlos Baerga 0 0.0%
Lenny Harris 0 0.0%
Bobby Higginson 0 0.0%
Charles Johnson 0 0.0%
Raul Mondesi 0 0.0%
Kirk Rueter 0 0.0%

Submitted by Rob G.
on Wed, 01/05/2011 - 2:00pm

how does someone vote for McGwire and not Palmeiro?

/mind boggled

Submitted by jacos
on Wed, 01/05/2011 - 2:06pm

Palmeiro has not admit it yet.

/hit myself in head with hammer to come up with that answer

Submitted by Rob G.
on Wed, 01/05/2011 - 2:10pm

McGwire's vote total actually went down after he admitted fwiw. That should spur a wave of honesty from these guys.

Submitted by The Real Neal
on Wed, 01/05/2011 - 2:13pm

Well it could be that those guys filled up their ballots (McGwire finished 12th), but I think it has more to do with the Byleven thing. McGwire hit HR's more frequently than anyone in the history of the game, and at his best was a lot better than Palmeiro.

Submitted by Rob G.
on Wed, 01/05/2011 - 2:32pm

I might buy the first reason.

and at his best was a lot better than Palmeiro.

if you go by BR's WAR totals, Palmeiro's best season was 7.4, McGwire's was 7.2. So I don't think your statement is as definite as you'd like it to be.

Palmeiro has a higher career WAR, RBI's RUNS, BA and passed 500 HR's and 3000 hits. There's a certainly a good argument to be made on who was the best player at the top of their games, there's not much of one for who had the better career.

But anyway, obviously both are being penalized for 'roids, just figuring out why Palmeiro is being penalized more at the moment.

Submitted by The Real Neal
on Wed, 01/05/2011 - 3:04pm

"if you go by BR's WAR totals, Palmeiro's best season was 7.4, McGwire's was 7.2. So I don't think your statement is as definite as you'd like it to be."

I don't, but to win that argument, you've got to say that you're putting Palmeiro in the HoF over McGwire because of his defense. Offensively McGwire had an 8.8 and 7.6 compared to Palmiero's 7.2. McGwire beats him for the career as well...

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/WAR...

Submitted by Rob G.
on Wed, 01/05/2011 - 3:26pm

well defense counts for something, Ozzie and Brooks Robinson are in there after all.

but more interested in the reasoning behind a nearly 2-1 disparity in their vote totals then whether McGwire was slightly better or slightly inferior to Palmeiro.

Submitted by Dr. aaron b
on Wed, 01/05/2011 - 8:14pm

Mind bottling?

Submitted by Rob G.
on Wed, 01/05/2011 - 2:49pm

missed this disparity as well between Franco and Lee Smith, although I guess if you think Smith is a borderline case already, Franco is inferior to him.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archiv...

Brown was in the Mitchell Report, so that one is easy to understand

Submitted by Rob G.
on Wed, 01/05/2011 - 2:58pm

http://www.csnchicago.com/01/05/11/Kaplan-Cub...

Kapman's version of debunking Wittenmyer's report

Submitted by Arizona Phil
on Wed, 01/05/2011 - 4:58pm

The Yankees have claimed RHP Brian Schlitter off waivers. Schlitter was dropped from the Cubs 40-man roster to make room for Kerry Wood.

Submitted by crunch
on Wed, 01/05/2011 - 5:28pm

somewhere out there in a haze of Budweisers lou is still calling on eyre to warm up in the pen knowing he won't use him.

Submitted by QuietMan
on Wed, 01/05/2011 - 5:40pm

AZ Phil: If read the information you have in AZ Phil's Corner correctly...

The Yankees paid $20 K for the waiver claim and every team passed on Schlitter other than the Rays and Phillies?

Submitted by Arizona Phil
on Wed, 01/05/2011 - 5:45pm

Submitted by QuietMan on Wed, 01/05/2011 - 5:40pm.
AZ Phil: If read the information you have in AZ Phil's Corner correctly...

The Yankees paid $20 K for the waiver claim and every team passed on Schlitter other than the Rays and Phillies?

=================================

Q_MAN: That is correct.

And we will probably never know if the Rays or Phillies made a claim because the MLB office does not release that information (it would have to come from the club, and they're not supposed to talk about it).

Submitted by Dr. aaron b
on Wed, 01/05/2011 - 8:16pm

Shittler is a product of the philly system. So possible they'd covet him?

Submitted by Cubster
on Wed, 01/05/2011 - 5:38pm

So with this move, the Cubs 40 man roster finally got off the Schlitter.

(sorry, might be the last chance to use that line)

Submitted by carmenfanzone
on Wed, 01/05/2011 - 9:11pm

What about Andres Torres from the Giants? I know he was in our system...

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