Cespedes Was Overrated, Soler is the New Flavor of the Month

I was trying to get my prospect list-mania article up and then Firefox ate half my work. I'll save it for a future date. In the meantime, now that the A's have signed outfielder Yoenis Cespedes to a 4/$36M deal, I'm comfortable calling him totally overrated. Jorge Soler is the real prize of the Cuban "draft class" and the guy the Cubs should be pursuing. I'm kidding around of course, Cespedes would have been a nice get for the Cubs, but it was not meant to be. The latest report was that the Cubs were now stepping up their pursuit of Soler with a number of $27.5M being thrown out there to try and land him. That report is from the same guy that said Marlins were the clear frontrunner for Cespedes as of yesterday, so salt meet grain. Of course, if I understand this correctly, Soler hasn't been declared eligible yet nor established residency, so certainly more teams will be rumored to be involved once that all falls in line. The last I heard on the timetable was to expect something around the start of the season.

Baseball Prospectus put up their top 101 major league prospects. On the topic of Soler, Goldstein says he'd rank him #38/#39 depending if you count Cespedes as a prospect. As for the Cubs, Brett Jackson at #44, Javier Baez at #66 and Anthony Rizzo at #75. Former Cub Hak-Ju Lee at #65 on his list.

Thanks for all the feedback on the survey over the weeked, a lot of good ideas in there and a lot of nice complements as well.

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Comments

For 9M per year, he only has to be above average in order for this to be good deal, and if so, the A's will trade him for three more prospects.

Very good points. And totally sounds like what the Cubs should have done, as a minimum.

I mean, fucking Oakland?!? I thought that was a typo at first. And by definition, there was no bidding war if the guy agreed to Oakland, because they don't win bidding wars.

Only thing I can fathom, he (Ces) was scared off by the Windy City, and when his agent told TheHoyStein, that's when they suddenly weren't interested anymore and focused on Soler. Sun + Playing Time are the only things that make sense to me...?

4 years was the key. Report was they were asking for either 4 year deals or 8-10 year deals. He's hoping to cash in on another good deal at Age 30 rather than hitting the market again at age 32.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/chat/chat.p...

Re: Soler
Kevin Goldstein: Classic RF profile. Tons of raw power, good arm, good overall athlete. Would be single digit pick in the draft.

25-27.5 million.

Re: Vogelbach's weight
Kevin Goldstein: Nobody is going to care about the weight if he mashes. The problem is, like any 1B prospect, he HAS to mash, or he's just not much of a prospect.

Re: Baez at SS
Kevin Goldstein: It's way less than 50%. Maybe 10% at best. He's a 3B, maybe 2B in the end.

Goldstein doesn't like Szczur, looking at the tweet box.

neither does Law

Nobody knows what Szczur is going to do yet. He's done great for playing his first years dedicated to ball. Doesn't necessarily mean he'll get better and doesn't mean he won't get better. I'm sure they just don't want to talk him up and then potentially look bad--most prospects don't make it to the majors anyway, so a bet against is always a safer bet.

look at worst positions last year

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php...

remarkably Cubs aren't mentioned other than Rizzo was part of Padres 1b crew. Fukudome mentioned for his time with Indians.

Heckler did one for Cubs

https://p.twimg.com/AlkHKUCCAAAYQYi.jpg

That pic is fucken awesome.

Incredible... +1

I think it would be funny if Soler got more thn Cespedes.

I think it is possible that Soler gets more than Cespedes. I suspect that Cespedes hurt his market price by insisting on free agency after the contract ends, which he reportedly demanded from every team.

the only way Soler gets more is if it's a 10-year deal, which isn't happening.

Cespedes is essentially major league ready, Soler has 2-3 years of minor league time that you're not gonna pay more than a couple million for.

can't imagine it would top 6/30 for Soler

wonder what the cubs want to do with randy wells...

also,
"Bruce Levine of ESPNChicago.com reports that the Cubs are interested in signing right-hander Ramon Ortiz to a minor league contract."

also also, derek holland needs to be on TV more...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P8WffdHiLzo

That was like the ol 96er...

Started out good, got kinda sick to my stomach, and I couldn't finish it

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospect...

says Concepcion would be #19 on their Cubs rankings between Reggie Golden Jae-Hoon Ha.

The 19-year-old stands out more with his advanced feel for pitching than he does for his pure stuff. His fastball ranges from 86-92 mph and his curveball ranges from inconsistent to solid. "If everything works out," one scout said, "maybe he becomes Randy Wolf."

7M dollars people...

I sometimes read MLBTR to feel better about myself, but I appreciated this exchange:

Josh Batelli: "People forgot one thing: Never count out Billy Beane on ANYTHING."

michael: "Except winning."

well-played michael of the Internet

Actually LOL'd

+1

Well, Randy Wolf in his prime would certainly be worth $7MM in today's market. Team Theo have correctly calculated that lefty pitchers are more valuable in Wrigley than righties, so the only negative I see with the Concepcion signing is the 40-man slot aspect, that seems kind of dumb.

Also, why the lack of interest at BA on Reggie Golden? The guy mashes, big-time. Sure, there are still question marks, but the #18 prospect in the Cubs system? No way. I'd have him closer to 11 or 12.

If I recall, AZP is pretty high on Golden, and I'm pretty confident he's seen Reggie play a lot more than have anyone at BA.

probably cause Golden came into camp out of shape last year and strikes out a ton. .240 BA in the minors is not really promising.

In his other prospects to watch column Keith Law was actually fairly complementary of Golden. Perhaps it was a bit of damning with faint praise but he was impressed with how Golden made adjustments over the course of the year recognizing off speed stuff.

One year Rob. He also posted a 420 SLG as a 19-yo in his first pro season. I just think there's more promise there than a #18 prospect ranking would suggest. I thought the low minors, teenager prospects were supposed to be rated primarily on ceiling, and not early results?

each guy/publication is going to rate them on their own subjective criteria...

a 25.6% K rate in Boise is particularly troubling for me, that's a lot of swing and miss for a guy that's 5-10". I know he projects for some power, but I don't think it's easy 30 HR power that could justify that many K's.

But yes, it's early...hopefully he's taking it more seriously and will come into camp in shape.

http://www.nbcchicago.com/news/sports/Whither...

Cubs deny it, but it's a pretty loaded denial

“I have never heard of a done deal of moving home games to the 'Cell,” said Dennis Culloton, a spokesman for the Ricketts family

odd way of phrasing it...

allegedly if they find money to renovate Wrigley, that could be the plan.

if the evil ex-president-still-president-but-technically-sub-president can push through the renovation deal there's a chance it may not be completed by opening day, but the team would not be happy about losing revenue so if it is the case i'd imagine it'd be a short-term possibility rather than a year-long reality.

they want to dig up 1/4 of the field to build underground space...amongst other things.

I wouldn't mind it for a season. I could actually take the grill with me, rather than paying out the ass for sub-standard bar food. The Cell is a better option than Miller Park. And if it's better for Wrigley in the long run, so be it.

Plus I know it would piss off Hawk Harrelson, so that's a good thing.

loss of revenue from playing at the Cell would tie in nicely with Cubs rebuilding effort and lower payrolls the next 2 years...

piss off a lot of folks, but if it means the Cubs win 86 or more games from that point on, I certainly can live with it. Sucks for the old timers though...

speaking of pissing off folks...wait til the cubs get the city to pay for part of the renovation...again.

When did city pay for Wrigley renovation?

oh yeah, they never got their amusement tax raise/redistribution. my bad. they just got new support for it from the new mayor in town.

The Cubs actually deserve some city and state help, as they are the #1 attraction in Illinois.
F' Reinsdorf and the Cell.

pepper hastings! ha. that's a name that hasn't shown itself in years.

also, neat about KC being the only team that couldn't get a fan to send in a number. fwiw, KC had the highest MLB payroll in 1990...all $23m of it...lulz.

That's badass, thanks Rob

Wow, that twitter link makes the Soler signing sound like a done deal...

Trib's Dave Van Dyke article sounds like the Cubs on the verge of signing Soler... not sure if I'm reading too much into his phraseology:

When the winter began, there were three major Cubans who could become free agents, and the Cubs appear to have landed two of them , although not the top-rated one.

The Cubs are expected to add 19-year-old outfielder Jorge Soler after acquiring 19-year-old pitcher Gerardo Concepcion, according to multiple reports from the Dominican Republic, where Soler is staying.

Concepcion was signed earlier, although the Cubs have not announced it. Soler is waiting for official clearance from MLB before being declared a free agent, although he can be signed.

http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseball...

jinx, buy me a hooker

Seems a bit misleading

Hopefully a mystery team won't come in an eclipse the Cubs.

someone tweeted that the Score has confirmed the report...take that for what it's worth.

Still confused by it all since he hasn't established residency or any of those other hoops that Cespedes went through.

one report was 3-4 year deal in the 27.5M range (egads). That better not include a get out of jail free card like Cespedes deals does.

Goldstein seems to believe it as well.

https://twitter.com/Kevin_Goldstein

answered my questions too...

They just agree to. Agent did same w/ Maya, Hechavarria. RT @Hopjake: @Kevin_Goldstein how can the Cubs sign him when he not FA?

I believe he has agreed, just can't officially sign yet. RT @davidrelliott: @Kevin_Goldstein Sarcasm on Soler? Or you think he IS a Cub?

and more likely a 3-4 year deal, but unlike Cespedes won't be allowed to become a free agent. Cubs will still have him for the full 6 years of major league service time.

Goldstein says its a done deal now too, so yeah, I think it's time to get excited about this signing.......he says it's a 4-year deal but NOT with accruing service time, NOR does he gain free agency at the end of the 4 years. So it's akin to other Latin signings, Cespedes is the exception.

Apparently, Soler's agent did similar deals with other Latin players in the past. Cubs and Soler agree to deal, they just wait on residency to formalize it.

KLaw puts Soler as the Cubs #2 behind BJax, Goldstein puts Soler #1. I think I'd be comfortable putting him at #4 behind BJax, Rizzo and Baez, but regardless, it looks like we just added a top 50 prospect to the system, bravo Team Theo!

Recent comments

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The first 600 characters of the last 16 comments, click "View" to see rest of comment.
  • "Like the Chapman deal for Cubs from on-field POV, wish I didn't now have to feel lousy following an otherwise likable Cubs team." @jonahkeri

    pretty much sums up my feelings

    Rob G. 5 hours 46 min ago view
  • You mean Yankees?

    QuietMan 5 hours 50 min ago view
  • Cards lose!

    billybucks 5 hours 57 min ago view
  • You do have a point. The TheoJed certainly would need to address this in a transparent way. Milton Bradley was no help to the team.

    The E-Man 6 hours 9 min ago view
  • FWIW, the Cubs would get a compensation draft pick between the 1st & 2nd rounds (around #35) if they extend a Qualifying Offer to Chapman post-2016 (probably about $17M), Chapman declines, and then he signs with another MLB club before next year's draft. 

    Arizona Phil 6 hours 16 min ago view
  • This all assumes Chapman doesn't want to be a free agent and possibly sign a $20MM+/year deal. We all know free agents get overpaid, sometimes dramatically (Hello, JayHey!). Not sure why Chapman would agree to the extension. If i'm is agent, I would tell him I could get I'm a $100M deal as a FA.

    billybucks 6 hours 23 min ago view
  • I'll root for the uniform and imagine it's left-handed Rod Beck or Randy Myers out there I suppose.

    Rob G. 6 hours 46 min ago view
  • Amen to this. I guess it's gonna happen and I'm gonna have to suck it up but I really despise domestic abusers with every bone in my body and cannot stand them on any team I root for.

    johann 6 hours 55 min ago view
  • I just prefer they don't  acquire players that choke their wives/girlfriends.

    Rob G. 6 hours 59 min ago view
  • So you'd rather go with Blown Save guy, when you can trade a prospect who is blocked for one piece that could get you over the top to the Big Dance? That is pretty old thinking. This is not a move that they cannot recover from if it goes south. But the upside is potentially historic.

    The E-Man 7 hours 8 min ago view
  • I'd prefer it not happen too.

    Rob G. 7 hours 35 min ago view
  • it's a hell of a blockbuster, but it's for a guy who pitches 1/3rd of a season at an extreme premium considering the guy being traded and if the early extension $$$ rumors are true.

    it's one of those things that is bringing a guy at the top his game, but something is nagging me that this trade piece could have been put to better use.

    a huge part of me is all "hell yeah, top of the line producer"...another part of me is "hmm, that for that?"

    crunch 7 hours 38 min ago view
  • Still don't want. Kinda hope they can't work out the extension.

    Charlie 7 hours 50 min ago view
  • obviously not, and I'm sure they did their homework...just hope they have some better answers than the Yankees

    Rob G. 7 hours 50 min ago view
  • Chapman 12+ Career WAR. Currently 4.7:1 k-BB. With Rondon/Chapman/Strop/Nathan/Montgomery/Wood...Its the best pen I can recall other than Sutter or Lee Smith handling things themselves.

    Its gonna suck if he gets injured, and it appears he's not the greatest of characters.

    But, he'll have another Cuban to hang out with on the team.

    The E-Man 8 hours 12 min ago view
  • I agree with the names you mention but there are lots of names being tossed around still and there's that small matter of Chapman agreeing to the extension.

    Old and Blue 8 hours 17 min ago view