2015 Hall of Fame Predictions
This year’s Hall of Fame ballot is stacked with 34 players total, including 17 newcomers, for voters to consider. New rules, announced in July, reduced the number of years a player can remain on the ballot from 15 to 10, but failed to expand the maximum number of names a voter can list on their ballots from the current 10. Many voters will be faced with more than 10 worthy candidates. This is in part because a number of players with Hall of Fame numbers are linked to PEDs and are languishing in no man’s land, far away from election but with strong enough support to avoid falling below the 5% threshold and being removed from the ballot. Ballots were due by December 27, and the results will be announced on Tuesday (January 6). A player must appear on 75 percent of the Baseball Writers’ Association of America ballots to be inducted. The big question this year is whether or not the change from 15 to 10 years will cause voters to reconsider PED players and candidates nearing that 10-year mark more quickly, perhaps upping their totals. Therefore, there could be far more volatility in the vote totals this year than there typically is from year to year, making them difficult to predict. With that caveat, below are my brief thoughts on each player on the ballot and my prediction for the type of general support they are likely to receive.
(95%) Randy Johnson – A sure bet first ballot Hall of Famer, Johnson should sail in on his debut. Far more dominating than Tom Glavine, but perhaps seen by a few as a tick below Greg Maddux, I expect that Johnson will come in somewhere between their vote totals (97.2 and 91.9% respectively) from last year, somewhere around the 95% mark.
(85%) Pedro Martinez – It is difficult to find a good comparison for Pedro. He doesn’t have the career wins that first ballot hall of famers typically have, but his other stats and awards and dominance during his peak suggest he will get in this year. I think enough traditional voters who look at counting stats like wins will refrain from voting for him though, at least on the first ballot, to prevent him from reaching the 90+% mark. Maybe a good comp is Bob Gibson, who was elected on the first ballot with 84.4% in 1981?
(80%) Craig Biggio – Last year, on his second year on the ballot, Biggio gained steady support from 68.2 to 74.8%, and should be in this year. When a player is that close, voters tend to converge and push him over the next year. But it is interesting that Biggio only jumped 6% last year. Many players see significant jumps from year 1 to year 2 as some voters simply refrain from voting for them the first time around because they are not “First Balloters.” Barry Larkin went from 51 to 62 to 86%, Roberto Alomar from 73 to 90%, Ryne Sandberg from 49 to 61 to 76%. In comparison, Biggio’s support seems stable, suggesting he will get over the hump this year but not jump significantly.
(70%) John Smoltz – This will be one of the more interesting ballot debuts in recent years, likely with repercussions for other pitchers going forward. Smoltz was part of the iconic Braves’ trio with Glavine and Maddux, who were both elected last year. He is also widely liked around the game (in contrast to Schilling who rubbed some people the wrong way). His 3+ seasons as closer give him 154 saves to go with his 213 wins. But if Smoltz gets in, then what does that mean for Schilling with a nearly identical W-L record and much higher WAR, or Mussina with 59 more wins and an even higher WAR? David Schoenfield has a nice write-up on ESPN comparing the three, along with Kevin Brown and David Cone. The case for Smoltz being better than Schilling/Mussina is weak, yet many pundits are already calling it for Smoltz, claiming that he will easily get in this year. An article on Grantland called him a “lock” based in part on the tabulation of 122 “public” ballots collected here, which has Smoltz receiving 90.2% of the vote currently. The Grantland article makes a mistake, however, of referring to this as “polling.” A poll is based on random sample of a specific size relative to the entire population to be able to accurately predict overall percentages within a specific margin of error. This is definitely not a random sample of voters. Those who make their ballots public are younger, more active in covering the game today, and work for particular outlets. These voters have been shown in the past to vote for more players per ballot than non-public voters. And there were 571 returned ballots last year, so this represents only about 20% of what the total will end up being. So Smoltz certainly won’t get 90% of the overall vote. Roughly, he would have to appear on over 70% of non-public ballots to creep over the 75% threshold—so the non-public voters still hold the sway. I am going to go against the prevailing views on this one and predict he will fall a bit short. I think enough traditional voters will not view him as a first balloter and keep him off the ballot. Whether he makes it or not, however, his high totals will likely impact Schilling and Mussina, who both polled under 30% last year. I thus expect Schilling and perhaps Mussina as well to gain votes this year too, with even larger gains next year.
(68%) Mike Piazza – Piazza was the only player besides Biggio on last year’s ballot to gain support from the prior year, rising from 57.8 to 62.2%. This demonstrates a clear growing support and I expect a moderate increase this year preluding a 2016 or 2017, at the latest, induction. It took Gary Carter 6 years to get in and he was as low as 33% at one point, so Piazza is doing well and should get in soon.
(60%) Jeff Bagwell – He has remained relatively steady the last few years (56.0-59.6-54.3%) and so it is difficult to see him rising or falling much this year. But Thomas being on the ballot last year likely hurt him given the obvious comparisons, and perhaps support for Biggio will shed more light on his teammate this year; so I expect a modest increase.
(56%) Tim Raines – After climbing to 52.2%, Raines fell to 46.1% last year. With fewer years to consider him given the new ballot rules, I anticipate a slight increase for Raines this year.
(42%) Curt Schilling – See my note above on Smoltz. I think Schilling will rise a bit with Smoltz’s support from voters given their similar careers.
(35%) Roger Clemens – Clemens debuted at 37.6% and dropped to 35.4%; I expect his support to remain about the same.
(35%) Barry Bonds – Bonds debuted at 36.2% and dropped to 34.7%; like Clemens, I expect his support to remain about the same.
(33%) Mike Mussina – Debuting at just 20.3% last year, Mussina demonstrates the importance of “magic numbers” in the Hall of Fame debate. He finished his career with a solid 20-9 season, leaving him with 270 wins overall. He had the potential to stick around for a few more years and try to march to 300—which almost certainly would have gotten him in, eventually—but chose instead to retire on top. I think Mussina has a chance to get in eventually, but it will be a while before that happens. This year I anticipate a slight increase from last year given that he was not viewed as a “First Balloter” and likely left off last year by some for that reason, and because of the natural comparisons to Smoltz and Schilling.
(36%) Edgar Martinez – The great DH dropped nearly 10% points last year to 25.2%. Part of this was due to the crowded ballot, but part also was likely due to a side-by-side comparison with Frank Thomas on the ballot. I expect a slight bounce back this year.
(25%) Lee Smith – I wrote more extensively about Smith in a separate post, but his slippage to 29.9% last year does not bode well for him. Typically, when support starts to slip to this point you start to see some voters abandoning the candidate since they feel the vote is wasted until you are left with a remaining “core” of supporters who will always vote for him. Smith will have his supporters to the end, but I expect a few more to slip away this year.
(20%) Alan Trammell – Sadly, the ship has sailed on Trammell. After gaining support from the mid-teens to mid 30s, he slipped to 20.8% last year and with only this year and next year left, he won’t be able to gain any momentum. With so many worthy candidates, some voters likely chose to abandon a lost cause in favor of those who still have a chance to build a case.
(15%) Gary Sheffield – With over 500 home runs and a career slash line of 292/393/514 there is a lot to like here, but he bounced around, was not well liked by the press, and is linked to PEDs, so it is difficult to see Sheffield getting much support. He should debut along the lines of Sosa, Palmeiro, and McGwire at well under 20%.
(14%) Larry Walker – Perhaps the most undervalued player on the ballot, Walker dropped all the way to just 10.2% last year. He should continue to have some support and remain on the ballot, but it would be a very long and unprecedented build towards election.
(14%) Jeff Kent – With a low (15.2%) debut last year, Kent has a long way to go and suffers from a comparison to a ballot full of offensive stars from a hitter’s era.
(11%) Mark McGwire – Another PED-linked star whose support has been steadily declining, McGwire may last a few more years than Sosa, perhaps even until the end of his ten years, but has very little chance of gaining election.
(9%) Fred McGriff – With just 11.7% of the vote last year, McGriff is quickly becoming irrelevant on the ballot and will be in danger of falling off completely in the near future as more worthy candidates continue to come on the ballot.
(7%) Don Mattingly – This is Mattingly’s 15th and final year on the ballot, and he’ll pass to the Expansion Era Committee.
(4%) Sammy Sosa – This will likely be the last year for Sammy. Support was low at his debut at just 12.5% and dropped to 7.2% last year. He will likely follow Palmeiro, who went from 12-8-4% in falling off. He could eek by and last another year, but voters have clearly made up their minds on Sammy.
The following players are appearing on the ballot for the first, and almost certainly, only time. Many will receive a handful of token votes, but none should achieve the 5% threshold needed to stay on the ballot. Fine careers, and an honor to make the ballot, but not Hall of Famers. Nomar Garciaparra and Carlos Delgado have the best cases in this group, and there is a chance they might creep above 5%. Bernie Williams and Juan Gonzalez did so recently, only to then be dropped in year two. But I think with the number of players with better careers ahead of them, voters simply won’t have room this time around.
Rich Aurilia
Aaron Boone
Tony Clark
Carlos Delgado
Nomar Garciaparra
Jermaine Dye
Darin Erstad
Cliff Floyd
Brian Giles
Tom Gordon
Eddie Guardado
Troy Percival
Jason Schmidt
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