No Gerut-tee [Of A Good Deal]

When the Cubs acquired Jody Gerut just a fortnight ago, I wrote that...
With so many similar hitters to Gerut, it's difficult to see just exactly where he fits in right now. I suspect though that Gerut will replace Ben Grieve on the major league roster with immediate effect, thereby effectively ending his Cub career, and that we won't see Adam Greenberg again this season either. Dusty will probably use Gerut in a straight platoon with Jerry Hairston as the centre fielder and leadoff hitter, which, despite Hairston's reverse splits, is probably the right way to go. It would not surprise me if, having become an irrelevance, Hairy were then traded before the deadline... And, finally, if Gerut performs, particularly with regard to his power returning, this could mean the end for Corey Patterson in Chicago. For such a seemingly minor move, this trade could end up having some pretty major long-term ramifications. We will see.
That all fell down from the "Dusty will probably..." bit onwards, perhaps because the great man's allergic to "the right way to go". Gerut made just two starts for the Cubs in his shortest of tenures, neither in centre field, where he didn't play an inning for the Cubs. And the second of those starts was cut short by the trade. Otherwise, he was limited to occasional pinch-hitting and late-inning defensive work in left field. In all, he went 1-for-14 as a Cub, with a double, two walks and three strikeouts, and a single run scored. It was Gerut himself that became the irrelevance, not Hairston, and Gerut that quickly found himself traded. Perhaps one of the biggest reasons for that is that it's not been hard to see where Gerut's power has gone. His swing right now consists of a real downward chop on the ball, and groundballs have a nasty habit of not going over the fences. Without power, and with an enormous platoon split, in the long-term Gerut is highly unlikely to amount to anything as a starting major league outfielder. It may be that the Cubs have seen enough to think that Gerut's power may not be coming back any time soon, and that it's time to move him now before other teams come to the same conclusion. Whether or not the Cubs would be right in such an assessment of course remains to be seen. Whatever, it turns out the trade of Dubois for Gerut will have no long-term ramifications at all. Instead, it's this new trade, for Matt Lawton, that holds potentially interesting implications... Whichever way Hendry tried to spin it in the press conference, this trade is a rental. Matt Lawton is entering the final months of a four year deal that's paying him $7.5m this year. And when this season is done, Lawton, whose contract includes no options, will file for free agency. With Lawton turning 34 in November, and doubtless looking for a multi-year deal all the same, this being a rental or not, it's probably best left that way. But it is a rental. And that says much for the Cubs' attitude towards this season, it says that they still clearly think they can make the playoffs. But this team right now stands at just 53-52 and is very much flawed, as this lousy homestand against lousy Western opposition has demonstrated. Nomar, Wood and Williamson, who Hendry is viewing as mid-season pickups, will not change that, promoting Van Buren won't either, and neither will Matt Lawton, whose simply not an impact ballplayer. The Cubs' best hope now is to be less flawed than their competitors in the wild card race. A four game margin certainly isn't insurmountable. But with the Astros and the way that they've been playing of late, let's just say that the Cubs are being a bit more optimistic than I care for. Either that or they viewed Gerut as having so little value to them that any return, even just a short-term one, was worth it. So, Matt Lawton. Well, make no mistake about it, Lawton is a good hitter. He no longer hits for average as he did at his peak in Minnesota, for his strikeout totals have been escalating, but he draws an excellent number of walks and thus gets on base at a great rate of which Derrek Lee will approve. Furthermore, unlike your prototypical leadoff man, Lawton's far from a slap hitter, consistently hitting 15 home runs a year and owning a slugging percentage a good 150 points higher than his average. In Wrigley, that could even jump a little, for he's spent his years mostly in ballparks pretty favourable to pitching. Though with age he's declining, Lawton is right now is a better hitter than Gerut, and a better hitter than Jason Dubois too. He's also better than Hollandsworth and Hairston, and, interestingly, Lawton at his 2000 best looks rather similar to Matt Murton's upside, the stolen bases aside. That said, Lawton possesses this split...
AVGOBPSLG
First Half (Career).279.376.445
Second Half (Career).254.363.387
First Half (2005).275.379.457
Hmm. Just as with Gerut, it's also unclear where exactly Lawton fits in to the outfield mix defensively. Suggestions that Lawton play centre field are perhaps off the mark, for he's not played a single inning in centre since 2000. Even then, he played just 21 innings there that year, and just 20 in 1999. You have to go all the way back to 1998 to find Lawton playing centre field with any regularity. ESPN's scouting report suggests it's not just been the lack of the opportunity that's been holding him back...
Lawton covered more ground last year [2004] following knee surgery, but remained a defensive liability in left and right field. He covered the gap decently, but any ball hit over his head or toward the line was an adventure. He underwent a serious operation on his right shoulder after the 2002 season and runners have been taking liberties against him ever since.
In other words, he's better than Jerry Hairston out there. Then again, so was Jody Gerut, and so is Jeromy Burnitz, and yet Dusty has been showing a lot of loyalty towards a player in Hairston whose complaints he apparently has no time for. Whether Hairy's escapades in centre continue then, I hardly dare predict. I'll just say that my outfield this year would be Murton, Burnitz and Lawton from left to right, that even that isn't a great outfield, obviously, and that I can picture Dusty choosing to run out far worse combinations. Ultimately, I don't think this is a great trade for either team. Lawton I don't think takes us to the playoffs, he shouldn't be re-signed thereafter, and Gerut probably won't ever do much for the Pirates, or any other team, without a power stroke. Even with the risk that Gerut refinds that though, and I think it's a considerable risk, a few months of Matt Lawton is probably worth that should it put us over the top. The trouble is I don't think it does, especially not if Lawton lives up to that second half split, and so it's all a bit, well, futile. Futile and squanderous, for in a few months we'll most probably have nothing to show for Lawton (as offering arbitration to secure compensation draft picks would be a dangerous ploy). But, once again, we'll have to wait and see...
Return to Homepage

Comments

If nothing else, this trade seems to further indicate the organization's change in philosophy as to what qualities they want to see in a player (i.e. high OBP,OPS as opposed to simply batting average).

If we are somehow able to acquire Dunn, one decent starter, and some bullpen help in the offseason (difficult, but not crazy), I think we could make a serious run next season.

Regardless, I like this trade and the fact that we're not giving up on this season. You never know.

I think it was a good move. Gerut wasn't long for this team with the likes of Murton and Pie (and eventually Harvey) moving up in the OF. AND... Korey hasn't struck out in 2 whole games!

Having said that, Lawton won't take this team to the playoffs. If the Cubs make the postseason it will be bacause Williamson returns to be effective in the 8th inning and Wood adjusts to be productive out of the pen.

Since leaving Minnesota Lawton hasn't been producing much after the Allstar break.

2002- .213 BA .310 OBA .362 SLG .672 OPS
2003- .255 .333 .275 .608
2004- .239 .352 .346 .698

2005- Slugging has dropped from .457 to .333

This is a low-risk move with the pontential for high-reward move for Hendry. If he could have a .360 OBP for us it would improve the offense. Your right about who should be in the outfield John. If Nomar, Wood, and Williamson can be 3/4 of there usally selves we could go on a Oakland or Houston like tear. If we don't make the playoffs then Hendry didn't mortage the farm. I think Lawton will be back as a 4th outfielder next year if every thing goes right.

One thing in response to the significant second half drop in stats is that Lawton has never played important games in August and September. Games for the Pirates in August and September are about the equivalent of spring training games for the Cubs. Maybe this added importance in games will lead to better production.

But, if ESPN is correct and Lawton is indeed going to wear 99 for the Cubs, he'll be bringing up the ghosts of Todd Hundley. Number 99 should be burned, burned I tell you.

I like this trade. We traded an OF'er that didn't have much of a future with us for a guy with a high OBP (something I think we can all agree we need). Whether this move, along with getting Wood, Nomar and Williamson back on Friday, will get us to the playoffs remains to be seen. But I don't see any negatives to it. At worst, it provides an upgrade to the Hollandswoth/Murton platoon in left.

This trade will not put us in the playoffs and will almost certainly mean less time for Murton.

I'm taking Hendry off my Christmas card list.

Hey it was a nice cheap move designed to show the team and the fans they were optimistic still...and believed in them.

Will it get them over the top? Hell no!

It doesn't really improve the offense much, it doesn't address that we have 2 trustworthy starters for any playoff run....and no more and a bullpen that is given 1 run leads at best and asked to hold them 85% of the time. Nope...doesn't put us over the top and I'm not convinced it puts us over Milwaukee.

Surprised you thought Gerut would be Cubs centerfielder this year. Even before his injury, he seemed better suited for a corner outfield spot and maybe, upon his arrival, the Cubs realized that his knee could not handle regular play in outfield this year. I thought at the time the trade for Gerut was for his potential next year. I like the fact the Cubs have moved him to bolster our chances for this year. Lawton is no Lofton, but the Cubs caught fire in 2003 after they had someone at the top of the order getting on regularly. With D-Lee and Rammy following, the Cubs just need someone to set the table so we can start scoring more runs.

I hate trades like this... Since most of us seem to think that Lawton will be gone at the end of the year, take playing time away from Murton, and wont help us get to the playoffs, all we have ended up doing is trading Dubois for nothing.

I agree with trading Dubois, but I would have been much happier with a minor league pitcher...

Cubs have a ton of minor league pitcher prospects...getting an ML-ready player for DuBois was a nice move, especially if he (lawton) ends up being a solid leadoff hitter.

I don't see how this move makes us worse and I feel as if it makes us better, if only marginally.

Given those factors, I would call it a good deal. Plus, they paid us for it. Brilliant.

And hey, who knows? Four games is not insurmountable. This east coast trips could do wonders for us if we go on a tear. It might knock Philly or New York right out of contention.

It also sends the right message to the team and the fans--we're not giving up, and we shouldn't. Yeah, we're flawed. That doesn't mean we can't play well enough to find the Wild Card.

Maybe I'm a victim of the Cubs PR machine, but I do feel as if Nomar, Kerry and Scott coming off the DL will energize this team and, as I said above, make us better.

Solid move by Hendry. A+.

I liked the Dubois-Gerut trade because it was a matter of trading a DH for a platoon outfielder (later determined to be more of a "4th outfielder"), and that was an upgrade, and I like the Grerut-Lawton trade because it is a matter of trading a "4th outfielder" with potential for an established everyday player who is among the top 10 in the N. L. in walks, doubles, and stolen bases, and just outside the Top 10 in OBP.

I don't care that Lawton will be a free-agent after this season. If he plays well and shows that he is capable of holding down centerfield until Felix Pie is ready (after which he could move to RF), then I would attempt to sign him for 2006-07. (I do not see Felix Pie as a lead-off or #2 hitter). Although he is older and not as proficient a defensive player, Matt Lawton is pretty darn close to what we would have gotten with Mark Kotsay.

Good trade by Jim Hendry. And it's an added bonus that the Cubs got Lawton so that the Cardinals or Asrros could not.

I agree with you, Chris. Its just that it seems to be a waste if we cannot hang on to him at the end of the year.

I like this move for a couple of reasons:

1. Our biggest flaw is the offense and Lawton is a legitimate major league hitter.

2. It will define Hollandsworth and Hairston as bench players, in my opinion that improves our bench.

3. Philosophically they're figuring that 2 months is still a third of a season and at full strength maybe this team can sneak in. From a business standpoint it the right thing to do. You have a 100 million dollar payroll, you're 4 games out of the wild card with two months to play-why not go for it? They didn't trade any key prospects, they didn't take on a long term contract and they're not blocking anyone's playing time-except for Hairston. Murton will probably play just as much as he has-about 4 days a week.

I like the move.

I think you guys are a little mistaken. I believe Lawton will play LF not Center. He has played exactly ZERO games in center this year, although he has played there some in the past. He has had some knee surgery's which reportedly have slowed him down a bit. Expect Hairston to be starting for the time being (probably hitting in the 8 hole) until Korey comes back.

Rumor has it MLB will announce sometime today that everyone's favorite Cub, Rafael Palmiero, has tested positive for steroids. Keep close to your radios and espn.com!

WFAN reporting Palmeiro tested positive for roids

Here's why this is a good move: It's better than not making any move.

If Jimbo had sat on his hands yesterday, we'd all be screaming that Hendry didn't care about winning and didn't care about this team.

I understand that Dunn would have been a great fit, and that an arm like Mesa or Wagner would have been awesome, but there's no way that the Cubs can part ways with Hill, Pie, Murton, or any of other top prospects for a guy who will maybe help us for this year only, or next year at the most.

We all know that the one thing baseball fans are not is patient. This year most likely isn't the year that the Cubs win the World Series. But we just got a crapload of cash and a lead-off man in exchange for a guy who our we didn't have a place for. Jim just stole the pants right off of the Pittsburgh Pirates in this deal, and aside from parting ways with some of best young players, we did the best we could do for the short-term.

Its official! Selig suspends Raffy for 10 games per ESPN radio.

Its official! Selig suspends Raffy for 10 games per ESPN radio.

This might be their lineup:
Lawton
Walker
Lee
Ramirez
Burnitz
Garciaparra
Hairston
Barrett

That looks hella good to me

My, my. This puts Jose Canseco's claim about Raffy's usage and Palmeiro's consequent denial of it under a new light.

Good point Drew. That is what I was trying to say in post #10. If Lawton cannot play CF (bad arm, bad knee), then all this does is hold back Murton. And, at the end of the year we have nothing.

Boy this is really Ryno's week huh? First he gets elected to the HOF and then Raffy gets busted for 'roids! Next we'll find out that Ryno has won a Nobel Prize for curing cancer.

Given the all ready compelling arguments for Raffy not making the hall, can we assume that this will certainly keep him out?

The Dude--"Whether this move, along with getting Wood, Nomar and Williamson back on Friday, will get us to the playoffs remains to be seen. But I don't see any negatives to it."

How about that we gave up Jody Gerut, who's got the potential if he refinds a power stroke to be a very nice ballplayer, and one that's not a free agent until after 2008? Is that not a negative if whether Lawton puts us over the top is even questionable? I get the sense that people here would be up in arms about the short-termism of trading Murton for Lawton. But because Gerut went 1-for-14 to start and end his Cub career, no-one seems to care about him getting traded for Lawton. Murton though goes 15-for-34 and all of a sudden giving him up would be akin to idiocy. The honest fact is though that Gerut and Murton's values as outfielders are pretty similar, even if Murton is the more useful this year because he isn't trying to play his way back from of a serious knee injury.

Arizona--"Although he is older and not as proficient a defensive player, Matt Lawton is pretty darn close to what we would have gotten with Mark Kotsay."

Not even close. Offensively, right now, sure, Lawton and Kotsay are reasonably similar. But defensively there's an enormous gulf, and Lawton has a horrible age related decline thing going on with his peripheral numbers that Kotsay isn't enduring.

Who would of thought Canseco is not the liar, but Raffie is...

Hope Cubs fans are as harsh on him as they are on Sosa. No need for double standards right.

Cub fans weren't harsh on Sosa because he used steroids. Steroids didn't force him to leave games early without permission, or make him stand a mile away from the plate and swing at low outside sliders.

But this latest confirmation that Palmeiro was using steroids will force the Hall of Fame committees to deal with issue. From what I'd been reading they were just going to ignore it when it came to Bonds, McGwire, Sosa, Palmeiro et. al. and their piles of records.

I had a feeling one of those guys would say screw it and start taking the juice again. But I thought it would have been Sosa.

http://mlb.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/news/article.js...

This link from MLB.com has a list of guys who will probably be on the waiver wire as available...and who else is out there, but our boy Manny Ramirez, who I would love to see roaming left field for the Cubs(antics and all) We could package Lawton, Wellemeyer, Mitre, Rusch, and a few prospects (other than Pie/Hill if Hill is still a "prospect"). Is that enough for a team that could want to get rid of Manny and his contract? Possibly. I think it was Steve Stone on PTI on Friday who was talking about a Aramis Ramirez for Manny Ramirez/Bill Mueller deal...glad that didn't go through.

In remarks prepared for a conference call Monday, Palmeiro said he had accepted his punishment and could not explain how the steroids got into his body.

"I have never intentionally used steroids. Never. Ever. Period," he said. "Ultimately, although I never intentionally put a banned substance into my body, the independent arbitrator ruled that I had to be suspended under the terms of the program."

Canseco, while incredibly pretentious, arrogant, and slimy, always held some merit with me in his steriod claims, if only due to my inference that he would never shy away from "throwing someone under the bus." I believe just about all his steriod implications, though it wouldn't really be hard to point a finger at Big Mac, Sammy, Bret Boone, et al.

"How about that we gave up Jody Gerut, who's got the potential if he refinds a power stroke to be a very nice ballplayer, and one that's not a free agent until after 2008"

Okay, John. Fine. But let's worry about 2008 when we get there, huh? If any of our OF prospects turn out like some think they might, Jody Gerut might very quickly become irrelevant.

I don't mind Gerut -- he had a bad start in ChiTown but I was willing to wait. But his value was clearly not to be realized this year. And when you can get a solid OBP guy like Lawton who might jumpstart our offense (along with Nomar) -- heck I say we go for it. I'm very much of the opinion that we are a team who can afford to give up a player that might have some future value if it gives us a better chance at making the playoffs this year.

Matt Lawton is no Adam Dunn, as he is much older and without the power. I suppose he's not even Mark Kotsay, though his defense in a corner outfield spot (LF) should be adequate. (Hell, I think it was BP that said if any team can afford to give up some defense in the OF in exchange for offensive production, it's the Cubs.) But he's certainly better than Jason Dubois and Jody Gerut -- better right now, I should say, which is all that we as the Chicago Cubs need worry about with the playoffs within reach.

PS - The reason BP (or whoever it was) said the Cubs could give up defense was because of the relatively small outfield of Wrigley.

Palmerio now believes he tested positive because he sat on the same toilet seat Sammy Sosa used.

Film at a eleven.

This is off the subject, but I just returned from vacation and have to share an amazing incicident in the Cubs game in Cincinnati two weeks ago. i do not know if anyone caught it, or if it was on tv, but i was at the game and have never seen anything like this before. Someone hit a fly down the Rf line and Burtnitz did not catch it, it was in foul territory. I could not see the play from where I was sitting. All i saw was Burnitz going back to his position waiting for the next play. Then I saw Neffi waiving franticly to the dugout for someone to come out. I thought someone was injured. Dusty came out and Neffi went up to him to talk to him. Based upon the information neffi gave him, Dusty went to umpire chief and the 4 umpires conferred about possible fan interference. They ultimately ruled no fan interference. My point is that this was in question enough to have the umpires have a conference. If Neffi did not call Dusty out and worse yet, explain to him what to do, dusty would have sat on his hands. How sad is this that this man is not only managing a major league team, but our favorite team. I have never in my many years of watching baseball seen a manager so clueless. How can the players respect him as their manager?

The Cubs are stacked with brittle, aging, overpaid renta-players who will all be gone in a couple years. So it makes sense to add Lawton, who really is replacing Moises Alou in the field and Kenny Lofton at the plate.

Derrek Lee is having a career year and it would have been criminal just to write the season off without giving the Cubs a shot at the wildcard. If Lawton can figure out how to have a second half as good as his first then we may see a new offense in August assuming Dusty Baker doesn't bollox things up as usual.

Tom, I believe Dusty was indisposed-- probably on the phone with the Dodgers during that incident.

After having some time to digest this trade, I have determined I like it. Gerut may be a fine outfielder and someone who'd be an asset to the team, but I doubt he'll ever be a star that makes us regret trading him away.
I'd like to see Lawton in the two hole platooning with Murton. Two relatively fast guys who get on base up top and drop Walker down to the sixth spot. It keeps the R/L matchups like Dusty likes to do.
More importantly giving Dusty a "proven veteran" means there is no excuse for Hollandsworth to be forced into a role he's ill suited for anymore.

Well now we know how Raffy went from a hitter with no power to a 500 hr hitter.

I am damn glad we kept Mark Grace and his natural ability over some slimy chemically enhanced cheater.

I really just don't see a downside to this Trade.
I don't see that Jody Gerut was really a key part to our future, I think we would have built up the team in the offense aside from Jody, and then let him compete for a job. I didn't see Hendry going into the offseason thinking we were covered in the outfield because we had Jody.

I agree, this team is far more flawed then what Lawton brings...but I don't think we gambled our future away one bit. Jody was a role player this year, and I think would have been next year too.
Lawton fills a specific need and can be inserted into the lineup immediately. If it doesn't work, it won't be because of Lawton, it will be in spite of him.

Exactly right, Adam. My point precisely.

Under the players agreement, neither MLB nor the players are allowed to clarify what is meant by "banned substances" in each case. Is it possible this is not referring to steroids in Palmeiro's case? Anyone know what other "substances" are "banned"?

I Said:
"I think we would have built up the team in the offense aside from Jody"

I Menat:
"I think we would have built up the team in the OFF SEASON aside from Jody"

I don't know that Sosa/McGwire/Bonds or Raffi will ever get into the hall after this type of scandal...I guess they would all have to be found guilty and not just alleged, but I think Palmeiro's chances just got flushed...Big Mac didn't help his case in the federal court.

So is Viagra a banned substance?

On the OF sitution Murton needs to play everyday. So if Dusty's plan was to platoon him with Holly then I would rather have Lawton. For CF if Lawton does hit leadoff I would rather have C-pat out there over Hairston because of his defense. In an ideal world Hairston would bat 9th and the pitcher 8th, but Dusty is too dumb to think like that. So either the OF needs to look like Lawton-Cpat-Burny or Murton-Lawton-Burny.

I hate to point fingers here, but if a guy is kept out of the Hall for betting on his own team to win, then Bonds, Sosa, Palmiero, and McGuire shouldn't get in either. You can debate all you want, but now that Palmiero has tested positive, he should face the same punishment as Rose. He's a cheater. Plain and simple.

In a related story, wouldn't we all feel more confident if Dusty put a cool $10,000 down every day for the Cubs to win? Probably wouldn't double-switch the pitcher to 5th in the lineup, I reckon.

I don't know if THIS LIST is exhaustive. Check it out.

Breaking story:

Neifi suspended 10 games for testing positive for a banned substance.

Before the season began, Perez sat before the congressional committee investigating the use of performance enhancing drugs and stated "I have never used Pixie Powder Period (probably)."

In a tersely worded announcement MLB has announced that it is suspending Neifi for 10 days and is disappointed that the Peter Pan of baseball could let the children down.

Perez released a statement last hour saying, "I don't know how this happened. All I know is that I love the game and that I would never take drugs of any kind--including aspririn, advil, tylenol, vitamin C, or even human growth hormone."

Observers had suspected that Neifi's meteoric rise in talent for the months of April and May and susbsequent fall off were classic symptoms of Pixie Powder abuse.

MLB has announced that they are now investigating what drugs are causing Dusty Baker to announce he will continue to use Neifi once Nomar returns."We may be looking at a systemic problem," stated Bob Watson official paddle-boy of MLB. "We may need to take drastic action and make examples of those that continue to flaunt the rules."

Stay tuned for more breaking news.

On Palmerio he now does not belong in the hall. This is the 2nd cardinal sin he has made. First the whole Ryno thing and now this. He is more likely to be in jail (he obviously lied to Congress) then be playing Baseball this time next year.

WESCHC, there is no proof that McGuire and Sosa ever took steroids. While they are guilty in the court of public opinion, I don't think you should ever keep someone out of the hall on circumstantial evidence. Bonds has admitted to cheating.

"In an ideal world Hairston would bat 9th and the pitcher 8th, but Dusty is too dumb to think like that."

Oh for knock that totally irrational dusty hating off. God it drives me nuts. Dusty is too "dumb" to put a faster and better hitter ahead of pitchers batting anywhere from .100 - .250 in very small sample sizes.

You truly have got to be kidding me that you think Hairston should be batting behind the pitchers. If you think Dusty is "dumb" for not doing that, then I really don't want to think where that puts you.

Many people here need a big time reality check, as they have lost all grasp on how this game works due to their unquenchable hatred of all things Dusty. I would say that reality check will come when Dusty isn't the manager...but that's not true, because whomever the manager is, there will be dolts who think the manager is too "dumb" to put an everyday player ahead of marginal hitting pitchers who get 3-4 at bats a week.

Rumor:

Patterson is reportedly going to get called up. Don't know if it will be today, or Friday. Like I said just a rumor don't get excited, probably isnt true.

Chad,

Conseco's still batting 1.000. I believe him. Maybe there's not enough incrimining evidence to keep McGuire and Sosa from the Hall, but there sure is enough on Palmiero and Bonds. If I was a voter, I'd be very skeptical about giving the nod to Sammy or McGuire, although they will both probably get in. I was just trying to make a point that there's no way that any of these guys deserve it more than Pete Rose.

This is what I culled out of the operative MLB Players' contract:

B. Steroids
Any and all anabolic androgenic steroids covered by Schedule III of
the Code of Federal Regulationsí Schedule of Controlled Substances
(ìSchedule IIIî), as amended from time to time, shall be considered
Steroids covered by the Program. Anabolic androgenic steroids that are
not covered by Schedule III but that may not be lawfully obtained shall
also be considered Steroids covered by the Program. The following is
a non-exhaustive list of Steroids covered by the Program:
1. Boldenone
2. Chlorotestosterone (4-chlorotestosterone)
3. Clostebol
4. Dehydrochlormethyltestosterone
5. Dihydrotestosterone (4-dihydrotestosterone)
6. Drostanolone
7. Ethylestrenol
8. Fluxymesterone
9. Formebulone (formebolone)
10. Mesterolone
11. Methandienone
12. Methandranone
13. Methandriol
14. Methandrostenolone
15. Methenolone
16. Methyltestosterone
17. Mibolerone
18. Nandrolone
19. Norethandrolone
20. Oxandrolone
21. Oxymesterone
22. Oxymethelone
23. Stanolone
24. Stanozolol
25. Testolactone
26. Testosterone
27. Trenbolone

Adam,

If we used Hairston in the 9 hole we would have 3 leadoff hitters in front of lee and ram giving 2 of the top 5 RBI guys in the nl more chances to knock in guys w/o taking AB's from them.

A player is considered to have tested positive if he refuses to test.

"F. Positive Test Results
Any test conducted under the Program will be considered ìpositiveî
under the following circumstances:
1. If any substance identified in the test results meets the levels set
forth in the Testing Protocols section of Addendum A hereto.
2. A Player refuses or, without good cause, fails to take a test pursuant
to Section 3.A or 3.D, or refuses to cooperate with the testing
process."

Chad, I agree with you in principle...you can't keep someone out of the hall because of unproven beliefs or rumors. But I do think McGwire pretty much incriminated himself in his congressional testimony, which makes his line much more shaky than Sosa's.

But another problem is, is one sample enough to keep someone out of the hall? Is that enough to tell us that the player has used steriods his whole career? Is one 10 game suspension the end of anyone's chances to get into the hall of fame?
What about the fact that 2 years ago, the drugs were basically legal in the league. How do we know noo ne in the hall used performance enhancing substances? Is using a corked bat the equivelant to getting caught using steriods once?

I honestly don't know my own answers to these questions...I just have trouble knowing what the line should be that determines enough guilt to prove that a guy cheated his way to an incredible career.

"If we used Hairston in the 9 hole we would have 3 leadoff hitters in front of lee and ram giving 2 of the top 5 RBI guys in the nl more chances to knock in guys w/o taking AB's from them."

That's still completely illogical because that doesn't effect their first at bats at all, it gives the potential that a pitcher will get more at bats in a game, it gives the potential for a pitcher to be up in an rbi situation with the 5th or 6th men on base.

By your train of thought, why wouldn't any team with a strong 3 and 4 hitter bat a pitcher 8. what you just said really lacks any logic as to the overall course of the game.

CHIfan,

According to this, why wouldn't you bat Lee first, pitcher 6th and Hairston, Lawton, and Walker 7,8,9...according to the logic you use, this would still put these guys on ahead of Lee and Aram without taking away their at bats...it just isn't a good idea.

"If we used Hairston in the 9 hole we would have 3 leadoff hitters in front of lee and ram giving 2 of the top 5 RBI guys in the nl more chances to knock in guys w/o taking AB's from them."

LaRussa did that in '98 & '99 to get more RBI opportunities for McGwire. It didn't do anything to help them score runs for much the same reason that Adam mentioned in #61.

for those who are interested, the organizational report is up below this post..thanks

tom, i remember that play v. cinci. the ball popped out of burnitz's glove when he and glove collided with the padding. Wasn't even close to fan interference. I guess neifi thought he saw something but you can't get on Baker for that.

With this team struggling to score runs I was only suggesting we try it to see if it would work. In the case of Larussa's expirement you would have to see the OBP of the guy he put in the 9 hole compared to Hairston. If you use a position player who hits like a pitcher it is not going to help you.

MikeC, why would they call CP back up? Is there evidence that he has successfully changed his swing?

If you want 3 leadoff hitters ahead of Lee and Ramirez, wouldn't it make a hell of a lot more sense to bat Lee and Ramirez 4th and 5th and effect it in the first inning...then put the pitcher in the 8th spot, given him more of a chance to come up with men on base and kill rallies.

I dunno, maybe all managers are just too "dumb" for the obvious move of batting a "leadoff hitter" in the 9th position so more players can be on base for the 3rd and 4th hitters. Gee, if only everyone could be as smart as chifan.

I need to back off from reading here...for some reason the non stop dusty bashing, and some of the most whacked out ridiculous criticisms of him really infuriate me. It just takes away from real discussions that can be had about the game of baseball. It's the same thing people pull that ruins political discussions, you get so caught up in one single person or party as being the downfall of society, you forget to look at actual policy.

Whether it is claiming that Dusty started Gerut on Sunday because Hendry specifically told him not to, or if it's saying that Dusty is too "dumb" to bat Hairston behind the pitcher...it just really has pushed my buttons...and quite honestly, it makes the site less enjoyable when every is ranting or raving about the same thing day after day after day.

Dusty is dumb for batting the pitcher 9th? YOU HAVE TO BE KIDDING!?!?!?!?! I guess that EVERY MANAGER IN THE NL IS DUMB TOO!!!!!

Also, if there is hard proof that Sosa or McGuire did steroids then you can factor that in but until then that should not be a consideration. I'm not saying that Bonds shouldn't be a hall of famer. He would have been without steroids anyhow. I'm saying that proof of steroid use should be a consideration when deciding if they should be in the hall.

Also, if Bonds should not get in (nor should any steroid cheater, or Sosa for that matter due to corkage) until Rose does.

Forget all that... the simple solution: ghost runners. Then we can alternate DLee, Aram 1-9. Then every time one of are on base and needs to bat, they just call out "ghost runner!" and go back up to the plate.

Duh!

It makes sense to bat the STARTING pitcher 8th when he's more likely to drive in runs than the position player he would replace.

The Cubs for example, have some good hitting starting pitchers like Zambrano and Mitre. Also Maddux and Prior. Hitting Zambrano 8 when Macias, for example, is playing makes sense. Z has a higher slugging percentage.

Since Cub starters average only 2 ABs per game, it's highly unlikely that they will get more AB's than the #9 hitter. In fact to claim they will is laughable.

*** It makes sense to bat the STARTING pitcher 8th when he's more likely to drive in runs than the position player he would replace. ***

Sounds like the position player needs replaced, LMAO.

Touche!

"MikeC, why would they call CP back up? Is there evidence that he has successfully changed his swing?"

ROBR, It would be purely for his D.

So if Dusty trotted the following 8 out there:

Lawton
Walker
Lee
Burnitz
Ramirez
Nomar
Barrett
Hairston

It then makes sense to bat Hairston 8 and the pitcher 9? I understand that it makes sense with Macias or somebody shitty, but that's VERY rarely relevant. I'd rather have Hairy up 4th in an inning led off by A-Ram than the pitcher. Even if it is only 1-2 times a game. Especially because they would IBB Barrett to get to the pitcher, then if the pitcher somehow reaches, then Hairston has to clean it up in the 9 spot. It completely takes any protection away from the 7 hitter. In our line-up, I'd rather have an unprotected 8 than a 7.

Hairston 9..and the pitcher 8...yeah sorry. I realized that made no sense.

Re: #68
You're not alone, Adam, if that makes you feel any better. I haven't even been reading this site all that long, and it's already worn me out.

Re: that play in Cincy

Fan interference? I thought the argument, weak as it was, was that either (a) it was a foul ball, with Burnitz's body being in fair territory or (b) that Burnitz had possession of the ball and then it was knocked out.

p.s. players on the field often have a better view of a play than people in the dugout.

To Chad. I really didn't know what happened, I was only speculating that it might have been fan interference. I think my point still stands, neifi must have thought that Burnitz had possession and it took him calling out Baker for Dusty to do anything. A manager has to stand up for his players. Not in the sense that Dusty does, playing them despite their poor performace (Hollandsworth, Hawkins, et. al), but arguing with umps on their behalf. I alwys felt that the suspensions last year, Wood especially, would never have happened but for the players feeling someone had to question the umpires.

On Palmiero's conference call today, how dumb do these players think we are? Deny, deny, deny.

I am just saying dont be surprised if Patterson is called up soon.

All one has to do is watch that classic 1984 Cubs/Cards game as seen on Comcast Sports Chicago on Saturday evening to see baseball players were a mere reflection of the general public....some guys had muscles but nothing extraordinary...and other guys who were fine offensive players were built like toothpicks...

Everyone of them had a thin neck...normal size head and normal size arms and legs....

Fast forward 20 plus years and you see huge necks, huge heads and arms and legs....

What exercise does one do to increase the size of their skull anyway? The game is filled with a bunch of cheaters.....

tom-i think your still off the mark on the that. Burnitz was the player involved and he wasn't arguing the call. He clearly didn't catch it and was noticebaly dissapointed in himself because he let it pop out. It was a foul ball...dusty doesn't need to go make an ass of himself over a non-issue. One of his players thought there was something to address so he came out to back him up. The game ground to a halt and whoever was pitching had to then get back in rhythm.

Cubfan, you're right, and Ryno hit it right on the head in his speach yesterday.

Some of my favorite parts:

" People like Harry Caray and Don Zimmer used to compare me to Jackie Robinson. Can you think of a better tribute than that? But Harry, who was a huge supporter of mine, used to say how nice it is that a guy who can hit 40 homers or steal 50 bases drive in a hundred runs is the best bunter on the team. Nice? That was my job. When did it become OK for someone to hit home runs and forget how to play the rest of the game?

When we went home every winter, they warned us not lift heavy weights because they didn't want us to lose flexibility. They wanted us to be baseball players, not only home run hitters. I played high school football at 185 pounds and played big league baseball at 182. I'd get up to maybe 188 in the offseason because every summer I'd lose eight to 10 pounds. In my day, if a guy came to spring training 20 pounds heavier than what he left, he was considered out of shape and was probably in trouble. He'd be under a microscope and the first time he couldn't beat out a base hit or missed a fly ball, he was probably shipped out. These guys sitting up here did not pave the way for the rest of us so that players could swing for the fences every time up and forget how to move a runner over to third. It's disrespectful to them, to you and to the game of baseball that we all played growing up. Respect.

A lot of people say this honor validates my career, but I didn't work hard for validation. I didn't play the game right because I saw a reward at the end of the tunnel. I played it right because that's what you're supposed to do ñ play it right and with respect. If this validates anything, it's that learning how to bunt and hit and run and turning two is more important than knowing where to find the little red light at the dugout camera. "

"I believe it is because I had so much respect for the game and respect for getting the most out of my ability that I stand here today. I hope others in the future will know this feeling for the same reason ñ respect for the game of baseball. When we all played it, it was mandatory. It's something I hope we will one day see again. "

I was going on incomplete information. It looks like I may have jumped to a conclusion. Dusty is clean on this one. Thanks for clearing it up for me.

Does anyone know how long it takes for steriods to clear the system. For instance, does Palmiero's positive test results mean he took steriods in the last 30 days, or could it have been any time within a certain time frame. Let's say he was clean for the last year, would it still show up on the tests?

Tom,
I personally think Dusty argues plenty...I feel that often when a manager argues, it gets players more riled up too, which is good on occassion, but I think it leads to players arguing more than less.

I did not feel Don Baylor argued nearly enough....I keep hearing about the lack of passion that Dusty has...and laugh as he is 1000% more animated than Don Baylor ever was.

I do think a manager needs to protect their players...but I also think a manager needs to respect the sanctity and flow of the game for his teams sake...if there are plays that are close, but you can tell the ump made the right call...don't pick a fight when it doesn't accomplish anything.

Thanks Blue. I was unable to listen to the speech. What an excellent, excellent sentiment. Its a shame that ESPN mentioned absolutely nothing about Ryno's words, or implications.

Champ, if you haven't heard or read the whole speech, its up on Yahoo! I think ESPN2 is also replaying it sometime this evening.

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slug=rs-spee...

screw all the games he played, from what I read of his speech so far, that's my favorite Ryno moment. That's just awesome......

Anyone know when they're replaying it on ESPN2?

"If this validates anything, it's that learning how to bunt and hit and run and turning two is more important than knowing where to find the little red light at the dugout camera. "

Um Mr. Sosa I'm looking at you!

Looks like the replay is at 8pm CDT on ESPN2, although its only an hour long, so hopefully they'll show all of Boggs and Ryno's speeches

Tom, I'm not an expert, but any performance enhancer wouldn't stay in your system anywhere near a year. From what I've seen, depending on the substance it can be detectable in a urine test anywhere from a few days to a few weeks.

As I said in the comments section of the Props to Ryno piece, Ryne Sandberg is my favorite baseball player of all time. I've always felt that he was one of the few players that truly knew what it meant to play the game the right way, and then followed through in doing that. After his brilliant speech, I'm even more convinced of it.

A lot of people have been pointing toward Sosa as the person Ryno was indirectly indicting. I'm not so sure, however. I think he was castigating a wide range of players -- it is just that Sammy is perhaps the quintessential example, the most recognizable name that fits this particular bill. Other names of this particular ilk come to mind, many of them great players.

One thing that is disturbing is that many of the things that Ryno points out fit very well with Aramis Ramirez. Things like not running out a base hit, swinging for the fences, being overweight, or being lazy in the field. I think ARam is a pretty standup guy and a great ballplayer - but I also think he is probably a bit full of himself and needs to be corrected in a few areas. He's no Albert Pujols, neither in ability nor attitude. He's still young, but I'm hoping Cubs management and coaching straighten him out (gently and persuasively) before we have another Sammy situation on our hands.

"Tom, I'm not an expert, but any performance enhancer wouldn't stay in your system anywhere near a year. From what I've seen, depending on the substance it can be detectable in a urine test anywhere from a few days to a few weeks."

Yeah, I think that is about right. Also, there was a failed test, an appeal, a hearing, and then a suspension. So this failed test likely happened several months (at least weeks) ago and is just now coming out. Someone on here said Raffy probably thought "Screw it, I'm going back on them." That may not be the case.

I see that ephedrine is a banned substance. The federal ban on ephedrine was overturned by the courts and it is being sold again in diet pills, energy pills, cold medicine, etc. It looks like it's possible Raffie violated the ban without using steroids. I have no idea but as just curious. If he says he didin't use steroids I'd like to hear him explain why he failed the test.

#27 of 80: By John Hill (August 1, 2005 09:59 AM)

Arizona--
"Although he is older and not as proficient a defensive player, Matt Lawton is pretty darn close to what we would have gotten with Mark Kotsay."
Not even close. Offensively, right now, sure, Lawton and Kotsay are reasonably similar. But defensively there's an enormous gulf, and Lawton has a horrible age related decline thing going on with his peripheral numbers that Kotsay isn't enduring.

---

John H: About Lawton versus Kotsay...

Not even close? I disagree. Of COURSE Kotsay is a better defensive player than Lawton, but then Lawton is a better offensive player. He just is. In my opinion he is, anyway. In fact, Matt Lawton circa 2005 is pretty much my idea of an ideal lead-off hitter, although I would prefer he not attempt to steal bases to the extent that he does. Otherwise, he's just fine.

Without going into acturarial tables, what do you mean by "age-related decline... with his peripheral numbers" regarding Matt Lawton? He is in the Top 10 in the N. L. in walks and doubles, and is just outside the Top 10 in OBP. I'll take that in a lead-off hitter anytime. And I would add that Mark Kotsay (though younger than Lawton) cannot match that.

Now, I still would prefer Kotsay over Lawton, simply because Kotsay is a superior defensive player. And I value outfield defense. It's important. And whether he plays CF, LF, or RF. Lawton does not share Kotsay's defensive skills, although Lawton is a better defensive player than some may think. He's not a Gold Glove, but he is not a "butcher," either. In my opinion. And AS A LEAD-OFF HITTER, Lawton is definitely a better offensive player than Kotsay (or most any other player in the major leagues) right now. Again, that's AS A LEAD-OFF HITTER. Right now.

Lawton is not an IDEAL centerfielder, but then neither is Jerry Hairston, Jr. But Lawton HAS played CF in his career. Not recently, but he does have experience playing CF in the major leagues. And the only reason to put Hairston in CF was to get him into the lineup to hit lead-off, because (until Lawton arrived) he was the only genuine lead-off hitter on the team. (Well, Walker could hit lead-off, but he's better in the #2 spot, or even in the #3 or #6 spots if Lawton-Murton were to hit 1-2).

So if Lawton is the lead-off hitter, and Walker (or Murton) hit 2nd, then Hairston should not be in the lineup at all. Hairston's ONLY value as a starter is as a lead-off hitter. And he is no longer needed in that spot (because Lawton is an even beter lead-off hitter than Hairston), so Hairston should not be starting at all. And because I believe Matt Murton may be the second coming of Paul Molitor (you don't, so fine, we disagree about that) AND is strictly a left-fielder AND needs to play every day AND is a protypical #2 hitter, I would put Lawton in CF and in the lead-off spot in the batting order (replacing Hairston in the batting order AND in the field), becausse that's where he is most needed (in my opinion) right now.

And then if the Cubs were to sign Lawton for 2006 and possibly 2007, he could hold CF until Felix Pie arrives, and then move to RF whenever Pie joins the Cubs, holding that position (and continuing to hit lead-off) until somebody better is acquired, or until Ryan Harvey is ready to play RF and Eric Patterson is ready to hit lead-off, probably by 2008.

As you know, I see Murton as the future #2 hitter, and Felix Pie as the future #3 hitter (or I should say since he will never be a lead-off hitter or #2 hitter, IF he continues to develop power and IF he improves his plate discipline, Pie SHOULD hit 3rd, but if he doesn't continue to develop power and/or doesn't improve his plate discipline, he could hit as low as 7th in the order).

Regarding Matt Murton... trading him would (indeed) be idiocy, but not because he's started 15-34. Murton is a protypical #2 hitter with above-average speed, a good base-runner with good plate discipline, the ability to get his bat on the ball, and use the entire field. As a #2 hitter, Murton is a guy who can be the back end of a hit & run (which is the best use of speed at the top of the order, in my opinon).

As of right now, as a template for the future, I would project this lineup by 2008 (in other words, this is where the pieces would fit, if everything goes according to plan), with the understanding that it is only a vision, and that it can be changed as necessary.

E. Patterson, 2B
Murton, LF
Pie, CF
Lee, 1B
Ramirez, 3B
Harvey, RF
Barrett, C
Cedeno, SS

That would be the vision. Might not happen, but it is a starting point. And (like Todd Walker and Jeromy Burnitz are now), Matt Lawton could be one of the bridges to that day. Or he might not be. But I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt.

Blue,

Thanks for that recap of Ryno's speech. I don't think it was a slam at Sammy..but rather Sammy and Barry etc....all of them....the way the game is played now by so many....

Predicting the Cubs lineup in the future is fun, but will always be way off the mark. It wasn't that long ago that our infield now was supposed to be Choi, Hill, Montanez and Kelton. For a variety of reasons none of those four will probably ever be a regular with the Cubs. Pie has a way to go and Patterson (Eric) even further, although he may be more likely to start for the Cubs than Corey.

TOM: Of course it's subject to change. But you have to have some general plan as a starting point, in order to proceed. And then the plan (or vision) is--as I said--subject to change.

Felix Pie is the Cubs best prospect. So I would not want to see the Cubs sign a centerfielder as a free-agent IF the player the Cubs sign can't be moved to RF (where Harvey is further way than Pie) once Pie arrives. That's because until proven otherwise, I see Matt Murton as the Cubs leftfielder and #2 hitter for quite a few years.

Obviously, if an unexpected opportunity comes along (like Hee Seop Choi for Derrek Lee), you change the plan. It's not written in stone. It's just a template. Sure, Eric Patterson might not get through the system. If he doesn't, you change the plan. But as of right now, I would project E-Pat as the Cubs most-likely 2nd baseman in 2008. But that doesn't mean he WILL DEFINITELY be the Cubs 2nd baseman in 2008. Just that AS OF RIGHT NOW, hat would seem to be the most likely scenario. But Mike Fontenot might turn into an everyday player. Or an opportunity to trade for a second-baseman might come out of the blue. We'll see.

Jim Hendry has to stay alert and be flexible, but there still has to be a "master plan" (although it is always subject to change).

E. Patterson, 2B
Murton, LF
Pie, CF
Lee, 1B
Ramirez, 3B
Harvey, RF
Barrett, C
Cedeno, SS

This will NEVER EVER EVER be the staring line up for the Cubs. Unrealistic to think that in this day and age we would hold on to all those players and not bring in a free agent. NEVER.

CHAD: It is a MASTER PLAN that is a VISION that is a STARTING POINT that is SUBJECT TO CHANGE.

How else can I say it so you will understand?

Yeah, but Arizona Phil. Which of those position prospects do you think will manage to stick with the Cubs? My guess, based on past history, is none of them.

Why even put it down?!?!?!?!!? Its fantasyland? Why project somethinkg so wrong and so out of whack? Not only are you being unrealistic, your being down right DUMB! Here's my projected lineup for 2008:

Ichiro CF
Albert Puljos 1B
Babe Ruth RF
Santa Claus C
Aram 3B
C Pat Lf
Nikko Smith SS
Easter Bunny 2B

Out of Eric Patterson, Felix Pie, Harvey, Murton, Cedeno, and Guzman. 1 maybe 1 of those players will be a productive major leaguer and odds are none could be productive major leaguers.

I said the same thing about Cruz, Zambrano, Hill, Choi, Kelton etc. Turns out Zambrano was the only 1, the rest was just blah.

Is Murton gonna be one? Pie? Who knows. But it will not be all of them.

Remember the Garvey-Lopes-Russell-Cey Dodgers of the 1970's or the Big Red Machine (Rose, Bench, Perez) or the Red Sox with Rice-Lynn-Evans in the OF, Carlton Fisk catching? These teams were largely "home-grown." And three or four years prior to the players emerging into the major leagues, I'll bet there were people in the Reds, Dodgers, or Red Sox organizations who had a vision of those teams, long before some of the players had actually arrived, all the while allowing for the possibility that some of the players projected wouldn't make it, but that all of them COULD make it, depending on how things turned out.

#101 of 103: By Chad (August 1, 2005 03:36 PM)
Why even put it down?!?!?!?!!? Its fantasyland? Why project somethinkg so wrong and so out of whack? Not only are you being unrealistic, your being down right DUMB!

---

Thanks a lot, Chad.

Chad,

You obviously misuse your players talent....I wouldn't put the guy with the best range at Catcher....Everyone knows Santa Claus is probably the premier Centerfielder in the game...and the easter bunny is one of the fastest guys on the team...an obvious lead off guy/gal (is the easter bunny male or female?)...

THAT WAS THIRTY YEARS AGO!?!?!? Baseball doesn't remotely look like that any more. Live in the now! Hell, Babe Ruth wasn't even a home grown product. That turned out pretty well .

Chad, Santa Claus hasn't caught a game in a year and a half after that knee injury in the ALCS. Any booger eating moron knows that he's now a DH.

Cubfan, touche'

#106 of 106: By Chad (August 1, 2005 03:45 PM)
THAT WAS THIRTY YEARS AGO!?!?!? Baseball doesn't remotely look like that any more. Live in the now! Hell, Babe Ruth wasn't even a home grown product. That turned out pretty well .

---

Whatever you say, Chad.

Ah Cubfan, you beat me to it!

the way people complain about hendry not running this team like it has a 30m payroll and bitching about how dusty is ruining every possition player we get for not giving them 100 more a/b's in a season...as if that's gonna undo 20 years of whatever else theyve learned and make/break them...you'd think we have nothing but pimp hitting prospects.

=p

that said, prospects are just kids with tools...its the holes in those tools that count, cuz that's gonna be what's exploited. a guy who has trouble hitting good offspeed stuff probally wont even be challenged til he reaches AAA/MLB anyway. a guy who knows his zone but needs to develop his power can do that anywhere (see: mr. sandberg)...its all about if you got a kid who's tools have either developed around his holes or the kid's known holes can be worked around on the MLB level.

Lawton
I like the trade. No, single handedly he won't take us to the playoffs but his contribution to get there would be more than Gerut. And hey, we're only 4 games out of the W/C one among other flawed teams. Not time to give up.

Palmerio
He doesn't know he is ingesting or injecting something? Huh? Sure he does and you can bet he would make it his business to know exactly what.

Dusty
Some managers argue to be arguing, some prefer not to disrupt the flow of the game over trivial things. Just a matter of style.

Andrew--"Let's worry about 2008 when we get there, huh?"

That's not a good attitude to take. That's an attitude that will give you a lot to worry about in 2008.

And the point isn't just that we'd still own the rights to Gerut's 2008, but also that we'd have him in 2006 and 2007 too.

Andrew--"If any of our OF prospects turn out like some think they might, Jody Gerut might very quickly become irrelevant."

We shouldn't be seeing Pie or Harvey, the big two outfield prospects, for quite a while yet. In fact, I have pretty huge reservations about Harvey even ever making the major leagues. Who else? Matt Murton? Brandon Sing, who's been moved to the outfield? Adam Greenberg? Hmm. I'd say it's more likely that Jody Gerut makes them irrelevant as opposed to the other way around.

Andrew--"But he's certainly better than Jason Dubois and Jody Gerut -- better right now, I should say, which is all that we as the Chicago Cubs need worry about with the playoffs within reach."

Oh, Lawton is undisputedly better than Dubois and Gerut right now. I think the fundamental difference then lies in our approach to the plausibility of the Cubs making the playoffs. Because I agree, if this trade puts the Cubs over the top with regards to that, you've got to make. I just don't think it does, not even when combined with the return of Nomar, Wood and Williamson. Maybe it's just this last homestand talking, but this team is really getting me down...

Adam--"Jody was a role player this year, and I think would have been next year too."

Trot Nixon is a role player too. It's possible to be a role player and still have value. Being a very good defensive ballplayer, versatile too, that mashes right-handed pitching, that's the best kind of role player to be.

Arizona--"Of COURSE Kotsay is a better defensive player than Lawton, but then Lawton is a better offensive player. He just is. In my opinion he is, anyway."

I guess that depends upon whether you're talking about the Kotsay of 2001, 2002 and 2004 or the Kotsay or 2003 and 2005. If it's the former, there's absolutely no question Kotsay is the better hitter, sorry. If it's the latter, there's absolutely no question Lawton is superior. Kotsay's down years certainly count against him, but I think they're just that, down years, as opposed to the others being up years.

Arizona--"Without going into acturarial tables, what do you mean by "age-related decline... with his peripheral numbers" regarding Matt Lawton?"

Really I meant strikeouts. This isn't a pretty trend...

2002: 34 K in 416 AB (0.082 K/AB)
2003: 47 K in 374 AB (0.126)
2004: 84 K in 591 AB (0.142)
2005: 61 K in 374 AB (0.163)

That's going to get ugly before long if it continues. I really don't want any part of Lawton when that ugliness happens.

Arizona--"I believe Matt Murton may be the second coming of Paul Molitor"

Yikes!

Chifan (post #48):
"In an ideal world Hairston would bat 9th and the pitcher 8th, but Dusty is too dumb to think like that."

You are joking, right?? I hope so.

Lawton
I like the trade. No, single handedly he won't take us to the playoffs but his contribution to get there would be more than Gerut. And hey, we're only 4 games out of the W/C one among other flawed teams. Not time to give up.

Palmerio
He doesn't know he is ingesting or injecting something? Huh? Sure he does and you can bet he would make it his business to know exactly what.

Dusty
Some managers argue to be arguing, some prefer not to disrupt the flow of the game over trivial things. Just a matter of style.

ADAm:
"Many people here need a big time reality check, as they have lost all grasp on how this game works due to their unquenchable hatred of all things Dusty. I would say that reality check will come when Dusty isn't the manager...but that's not true, because whomever the manager is, there will be dolts who think the manager is too "dumb" to put an everyday player ahead of marginal hitting pitchers who get 3-4 at bats a week."

Very sad what is happening here at TCR lately and in Cubs nation in general. I hope after Dusty is done managing the Cubs we are able to get another great manager, but it won't matter as he will be critiqued unmercifully too.

Jim C.:
"LaRussa did that in '98 & '99 to get more RBI opportunities for McGwire. It didn't do anything to help them score runs for much the same reason that Adam mentioned in #61."

Why is that? Because maybe lineup construction only makes a minimal differnce?

Also, LaRussa did not do that to get Mac more RBIs. He did it to get Mac more ABs. He thought that if he could hide the pitcher, the lineup would turn over faster.

Gerut's fate might have been sealed on Tuesday night against the Giants. He came up to pinch hit with a runner on 3rd and one out in the eighth inning against LaTroy. Hawkins went 2-0 on him, after walking Murton (a wild pitch in that sequence too). The next pitch Gerut swung at and popped out to the first base side. Frankly at that point in the game, with that pitcher, you better drive the ball some place or hit a fly ball to the outfield. That was one example of costing the Cubs that game. You can't do those things and be a good pinch hitter in my opinion. In fact after he popped out, I muttered "Corey Patterson."

Chub (post #65):
"...but you can't get on Baker for that."

Have you read this site the past 2-3 months? many blame him for everything that could go wrong.

John H: Remember, I said Matt Murton MAY be the second coming of Paul Molitor. I also posted a week or two ago that Murton could also be the second coming of Brady Clark, but that the range (Clark on the bottom, Molitor onn top) is where I peg Murton. In either case (Brady Clark or Paul Molitor), it would take a really, really good deal for me to consider trading Murton right now. I like Murton a lot.

As for Lawton, the numbers I like are his OBP:

2002 - .342
2003 - .343
2004 - .366
2005 - .380

And his slugging:

2202 - .399
2003 - .420
2004 - .421
2005 - .433

If anything, he seems to be getting better with age, don't you think?

And by the way, John, thanks for not calling me dumb or making me feel old. I appreciate that. You are a true gentleman. We need more of those.

Blue, I see where you are going with that one but in 2008 I don't think I want Hoffman Wagner or Izzy. But thats me.

Chad (post #69):
Also, if Bonds should not get in (nor should any steroid cheater, or Sosa for that matter due to corkage) until Rose does."

Or Babe Ruth, since it was found he used a corked bat too.

Baseball has a history of cheating (corked bats, throwing games, spitball, pin tar, sand paaper, etc.)

I don't know why, but since many ballplayers present and past have cheated, it doesn't surprise me, not upset me too much.

Molitor's career season averages were the following:

.306/.369/.488 with 14 HR, 79 RBI, 108 Runs

If AZ Phil meant he could see Murton putting up numbers like that I agree, but time will tell if he has the longjevity of Molitor only time will tell.

Manny, I think you missed my point. I was saying that its fine to put those guys in the Hall but we need to put Rose in first. Ruth IS already in the Hall so I don't know how that applies. Once again, I have hear casually that Ruth corked his bat but I've never really heard all the facts on the case or see or heard about it outside this site. I believe you that this is a real thing but I would like to find out more about it. Do you know where to look?

Chad-
Bill James wrote about it in one of his books. Don't know which one, but google it and i am sure it will pop up.

And I do understand what you were saying, just in a bad way I was saying the cheating doesn't bother me all that much, since many have past and present.

It was in the New Historical Abstract, under his entry for Babe Ruth.

I've actually memorized that entire book. That may not be a good thing. It does help me pull random stats out of my brain (ass).

Like Dusty Baker being one of the few players who hit the exact same number of Home Runs at home as on the road. 56 each, I think.

I've seen multiple references, other than in the Abstract, to Babe Ruth's corked bat; somewhere in the archives of ESPN I'm sure.

Bah, 121. So much for that theory.

"...but you can't get on Baker for that."

Have you read this site the past 2-3 months? many blame him for everything that could go wrong. -mannytrillo

What can we blame Dusty for?
1)Keeping Korey in the leadoff spot for WAY too long
2)Also yo-yoing him up and down the lineup
3)Continuing to hit Nefi Perez in the #2 spot for WAY too long.
4)Being the master of the strange double-switch
5)Continuing to believe that Hollandsworth can be a starting LF.
6)Changing the lineup day after day...injuries/platoons notwithstanding.
7)Mike Remlinger...just because he's on the team does not mean that you have to use him.
8)Refusal to use Murton, Cedeno, Hill earlier in the year.

That is a good start. I apologize for not wearing my dusty-rose colored glasses....

we could use Champ Summers as a pinch hitter...

>

yeah, why not get David Carruthers back from retirement; at least he hasn't hurt the bullpen this year.

Merigold - great catch on the Gerut at-bat in that game - I was there too and just couldnt believe my eyes - Hawkins was so rattled, had been throwing ball after ball and the crowd was clearly affecting him...and Gerut swing at hat terrible pitch and popped up. I also said to my friend with me at that game - "Man, if I'm the manager and a new guy does that in this game scenario, I am really struggling not to look past it."

That's not to say other players don't do stupid things but managers are people too and first impressions can be real hard to overcome.

Hey, as Sandberg reminded us the other day, he started out 1 fer 32. A good manager will look past a first impression, especially if the player has a good track record. It's not Dusty's fault for not giving Gerut more ABs, Holly should get a handful and Murton should get the starts he got, if not more. Dusty just had a bushel of mediocre outfielders to juggle.

A couple comments and a question:

1. No reasons to dislike picking up Lawton!

2. Disappointed we did not address the bullpen though (Guardado!!!)

3. What did Raffy do to Ryno? Was I in a cave somewhere? I must of missed it...

I believe it had something to do with the horizontal hokey-pokey with Ryno's wife.

At least we won't have to hear the excuse that Lawton will need a few games to learn new pitchers in the NL. Every time a player comes from the AL and slumps from day one we hear that BS. Probably affected Gerut, certainly affected Nomar last year.

Also we have the ex-Pittsburgh factor to hope for. Randall Simon turned into Superman for about 6 weeks so we can hope it will happen to ML.

I do like Hendry making moves that force Dusty to make what should have been logical changes. Trading Hawkins forced Dusty to move Dempster to the closer role and Rusch to the 5th starter spot. Sending CPat down forced him to use Hairston (and Murton). Now Lawton will force him to use Hollandsworth off the bench where he might help as a pinch hitter.

I'm just hoping Dustbuster doesn't go berserk and use Holly and Burnitz in CF.

3. What did Raffy do to Ryno?

ah, chalk another one up to the irony of being the spokesman for Viagra.

#133 - "Hey, as Sandberg reminded us the other day, he started out 1 fer 32. A good manager will look past a first impression,"

Not only good managers but apparently Lee Elia as well. Just like it's easier for a network with bad ratings to stick with a new TV show, it's easier for a manager of a horrid team with zero expectations to stick with a struggling rookie.

There are many stories about Cindy Sanberg. She was linked to Raffy, Dave Martinez and possibly Mike Bieleki (?)

I did not have sex with that woman....oh wait...wrong guy...(or was it?)

I did not take steroids, none, notta, never....

oops.

Dusty Baylor:
"I apologize for not wearing my dusty-rose colored glasses...."

I'm sorry for not drinking my Dusty Baker hatorade every morning.

MLB.com is reporting Bonds will not be back this season. Today is a great day all the roids users are paying the price.

Do MLB players have to test for steroids IF they are on the DL? or is it only currently active and eligible to play??

It's possible we may need more info. on what really happened to Palmeiro...check this out...

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2005/basebal...

It might happen

Professor: Player could take steroids unintentionally

Posted: Monday August 1, 2005 8:03PM

BALTIMORE (AP) -- The director of Baltimore's Office of Substance Abuse studies says a baseball player could test positive for steroids without knowingly ingesting the drug.

Anthony Tommasello, who's also an associate professor at the University of Maryland School of Pharmacy, says substances called prohormones are found in over-the-counter protein supplements.

Tommasello says prohormones could be found in sufficient amounts in protein supplements to trigger a positive test for steroid use.

The world of baseball was shocked today to learn that Baltimore Orioles slugger Rafael Palmeiro had tested positive for steroids. Palmeiro said today that he took the banned substance accidentally.

Tommasello says protein supplements are commonly used to help build up muscles after exercise, and since the FDA doesn't regulate nutritional substances, there's no way of knowing if some chemicals aren't listed on the labels.

I don't hate Johnnie B...I just think that Cub fans were so glad to get anyone but Don Baylor, that Dusty's shortcomings are glossed over.
He has been the manager of 2 winning clubs...good job, but not great. He also has been the beneficiary of a HUGE payroll, and the most talent a Cubs team has had since 1984. Dusty is an upgrade over Don Baylor, but I won't applaud him for his mistakes.
This team has suffered, over the last 3 years, from a lack of fundamentals, baseball sense, and a propensity to blame the fans, media, umpires..etc. The players love Dusty, and that is a great quality to inspire. Knowing to leave Holly as your best pinch hitter, or using Macias mostly to pinch run would be better qualities.
I would go into Neifi's just brutal last 3 months, but everyone loves Neifi...(great April)

the manager is the least of this club's worries...

having more than 2-3 guys performing at a .350-ish+ ob% clip would help...staying healthy would help...not having 20-ish bullpen losses would help.

its about time to start blaming some players, not a 2 week lineup experiment or not batting a guy 6th insted of 2nd or weird ass manager/GM conspiracy theory.

btw...cedeno/dubois/whoever's the popular kid this week isnt the answer. these kids arent ready.

there is a HUGE difference between a prospect and a kid who's ready to play...not all prospects who are up are ready to play. murton's power isnt there, cedeno isnt very refined at the plate...a month of play in the majors wont sort this out. murton's power will show up (hopefully) eventually and cedeno will become a more complete hitter (hopefully) with time.

and no...getting 4-5 plate appearances a day wont suddenly make these things happen...it didnt happen for 1000 minor league at bats...its nothing 100 major league at bats will suddenly solve.

you gotta play with what youre given, and yeah the patterson/neifi experiment was dumb after walker was healed (he was left out to dry a week too long)...but damn, these players just arent delivering what's being hoped for.

the bullpen alone, if it just dropped a few less games than they did, a lotta this conversation would be a bit more optimistic.

I do not buy for a second that he did not know that the supplement he used had roids in them. He is on a panel thats goal is to weed out roid use. You think he would ask a doctor or two if the supplement had something in it that might violate the mlb policy. Today he was exposed for the fraud that he was.

Does anyone have any doubt that the Championship team Cub fans have been waiting to see will show up in September the day after we are mathematically eliminated from the playoffs?

What I can't stand is the blanket "the kids aren't ready" defense of Dusty's refusal to play rookies on a regular basis. We know that (insert name of mediocre veteran here) isn't ready to play, but we'll never know what the youngsters can or can't do unless they're give a chance.

There are teams that have been hurt by injuries just as bad as if not more than the Cubs this year, and yet several of them are outperforming the Cubs because they are giving their kids a chance to succeed instead of relying on mediocre vets who they know can't get the job done.

"Does anyone have any doubt that the Championship team Cub fans have been waiting to see will show up in September the day after we are mathematically eliminated from the playoffs?"

Yeah, I can see it they are elimnated on sept. 14th and go 18-7 the rest of the way and Baker gets to keep his job because of it.

everytime you tell me about a blanket accusation of "the kids arent ready" ive told you why they arent...and its not me making them not ready, nor did i put them in their possition....neither did dusty for the conspiracy theorists...

no one can make cedeno a better hitter insantly, no one can give dubois plate discipline or defensive skills instantly, no one can make matt murton start stroking the ball with authority instantly...these things take time.

we KNOW what these kids can do...a lot of people get paid a good chunk of loot to tell people what a kid can and cannot do at any particular time in their development.

this isnt a sandberg thing...well, murton could be...both were patient hitters not known for their power til sandberg was practically told "start pulling the ball or you're gonna be outta a job sooner than you'd like...you're a power hitter, kid!"

i said eariler we dont have any cabreras, pujols, sizemore, etc's on our hands here...theyre just kids in 05...they project well, but none projects for impact 05 work. at least murton is close...be happy about that...first guy we've had around in a LONG time who's got some great immediate upside.

John Hill: I typically agree with you but not this time. Gerot may have the potential to be a nice player but business is about risk/reward. Trading him is a risk worth taking. Why? Because he's not good enough to be a corner outfielder on a championship caliber team. The Cubs have enough money to upgrade the corners significantly. I liken Gerot to Orlando Merced. Merced had a terrific rookie year in Pittsburgh, including power. The league figured him out and he became a valuable bench player-good enough to play but not good enough to be an important part of the everday lineup. The Cubs had Merced in '98 and he contributed some big hits down the stretch. They let him go and he contributed a great deal in Houston off the bench for about three years. You hate to lose a guy like that but if it means picking up a missing piece to your lineup now, then you do it-and worry about tommorrow when it comes.

As for Matt Murton:
Sometimes great players weren't the hottest prospects. If Corey Patterson or Hee Seop Choi would have hit .478 in their first thirty days with the team, the city would have gone nuts. You'd never see them out of the lineup. Hell, they'd probably be on the cover of SI. Murton comes up and has two 4 hit games, gets what 12 hits a couple of walks and sits. People should be outraged. What does he have to do to win the job? Cedeno goes down and hits .371 and comes up and sits. Dusty needs his head examined. Last year Leicaster was lights out for about a solid month, Dusty never put him in a challenging situation.

Dusty is frustrating. His choice is simple: play a below avg cf in Hairston or play a below avg cf with more offense. Hairston has no concept on how to cover balls over his head in the gaps. He doesn't take the proper route. He gave up two doubles over the weekend. Burnitz should play center. He's the captain of the of. Hairston gives you options off the bench. Patterson has to be brought up to play late inning defense. Corey Patterson to pinch run and late inning defense. Possibly the next Herb Washington.

Carmen your post is absouletly on the mark. Gerut could become a good player, but right now he has swing problems and we know Dustsargeines is not the hitting eqvillent of Mazzone. On Murton he has established himself as the everyday LF, and if Dusty is not going to do that Hendry needs to send him down to Iowa to get AB's until sept. callups.

Chifan and Carmen-
Dusty has played Murton a lot since he was called up. Dusty even started him against RHP the last game or two.

re: murton

its not that murton isnt hitting, its that 1/3rd of those hits were lucky and/or infield dribblers.

what should excite everyone is his amazing patience...what's keeping him from becoming hyped by anyone is his undeveloped power. its not a real big deal, either way you got a good hitter on your club who's gonna see time.

and about burnitz...he plays RF cuz of his plus arm...no one else on this team has a remotely comparable arm. that's just the way that is....

Even if you take away 4 of those hits, once you add Murton's 7 walks his obp is still around 480-500. The guy pure and simple gets on base, which is exactly what this team needs.

Crunch, your Neifi=Cedeno theory rivals any Dusty conspiracies out there.
Neifi, after a tremendous April, has declined each month, to his current levels of .285/.376/.661..not real good, but without the torrid April to buoy the stats, downright awful. Cedeno, in VERY limited time, is at .309/.365/.674. Not much better,but is it worth playing Neifi 6.5 times out of 7? No. Cedeno is 10 years younger, with more potential. He hit the crap out of the ball in AAA, and was brought here to rot behind Neifi "Savior" Perez. I agree with you that some of Murton's hits have been cheap, but I've seen enough line drives to be encouraged that there is something good there. his patience is outstanding.
When it comes down to it, we can blame the players, but Dusty is responsible for who is playing, and where in the lineup they are playing. Playing Hollandworth, Perez, etc because the kids aren't ready is crap,because Holly and Neifi aren't ready either. They would be great off the bench...or on the bench. This season will be put out of reach soon, and hopefully we'll see the kids get some extended playing time, to see what the Cubs have for next year.

ALso, on a positive/hopeful note, Williamson pitched a scoreless inning at Iowa tonight, picking up the "W," with Van Buren getting his 19th save...with an ERA of 1.87...hmmm...I wonder who would deserve a look in the Cubs sieve-like bullpen....

"Crunch, your Neifi=Cedeno theory rivals any Dusty conspiracies out there."

no it doesnt cuz theyre the same player right now. im talking 05 here....

you point to #s...lemmie tell you about humans...theyre both guys who are taking hacks, dont K much, dont walk much, and make some questionable slap contact. they can both aim a ball, not drive it...

neifi's got a bit better D, cedeno's got a bit more speed...

all this comes up to almost NO plus or minus for playing either player in 05...

cedeno's age or neifi's age or what you hope cedeno can be vs. what neifi will can be means nothing...we're dealing with 05 here until they're out of the race. they're practically the same player right now. aka...big deal...

Crunch, excellent points about Murton's hitting and Burnitz's arm in RF.

CarmenFanzone, I agree with you 100% about Gerut. Orlando Merced is a good comparison, but I don't think that Gerut will ever have Merced's power. Heck, the guy's hit one measly homer this season in 150 trips to the plate. It's obvious that with his swing he's chopping down slightly on the ball. He's a line-drive hitter who will never regain the promise of power that he had as a rookie, or that John Hill thinks he may attain.

Jody Gerut is a dime-a-dozen ML outfielder. Lawton may be a rent-a-player with fielding flaws, but he's a much more valuable ingredient to a team that still harbors hope of winning the wild card this season, and that's all that should matter. As CarmenFanzone said, the risk/reward behind this deal is excellent from the Cubs' point of view.

Not just Dusty bashing... I've always thought the guy was an idiot. And not only managing... I mean who lets their 4-year-old on a baseball field to get trampled by 200lb 'roid ragers???

Anyway, for all those who think starting rookies is a bad thing... every single Hall of Fame player was a rookie at one point in time. They shouldn't have to mature on someone else's roster before you aquire them. Even the Yankees brought up Jeter and Williams. And even more recently and personal, I recall a particular rook named Miguel Cabrerra who helped devastate the Cubs WS run in 2003... He's now one of the best RF in all of baseball and still only 22yrs old.

You have to let the kids play sometimes... Anyone who can't grasp that concept is a terrible manager.

on another tangent...it seems the trib is confident enough that wood/williamson/garciappara will all rejoin the team by friday theyre shoving it almost everything they write lately...so...

well that's 3 guys coming in...2 in the pen...guess its all to easy to assume cedeno will be an odd man out since he's yet to play any 3rd base...as far as the pitching goes...aside from mitre i got no idea who's the odd man...wuertz or novoa, i guess.

im a big wuertz fan, but he's hurting bad for a 3rd pitch he can at least show batters he might throw occasionally. i dunno where to start with novoa, he seems he's either gonna be on or off cuz he just goes up there and throws...a little control would be nice, but i dunno what a 3 weeks in the minors could really do for that...

I'd rather see Remlinger get DFA'ed than see Novoa or Wuertz go down to make roster room on Friday. Sure, neither Novoa nor Wuertz is reliable in terms of control. But at least they have young arms made out of rubber, which means you can give them a lot of work. I strongly doubt that either Williamson or Wood will be able to pitch on back-to-back days. That makes durability in the other short men an important resource. And as Remlinger demonstrated amply on Sunday, he can't effectively pitch on back-to-back days, either.

Sunday's lousy stint was only the fifth time this season that Remlinger has pitched on back-to-back days, and only the second time he's thrown over 30 cumulative pitches in those back-to-backers. Novoa, by contrast, has pitched on back-to-back days six times already for the Cubs, in spite of the fact that he spent much of this season in Iowa. Wuertz has pitched on back-to-back days 14 times already this season, including one stretch in April in which he pitched three days in a row.

Remlinger's effectiveness appears to be at an end, and his biggest asset -- his durability -- has vanished. I really don't think that the Cubs have any use for Sling Blade and his 39-year-old arm and 4.96 ERA anymore.

Carmen--"Gerut may have the potential to be a nice player but business is about risk/reward. Trading him is a risk worth taking. Why? Because he's not good enough to be a corner outfielder on a championship caliber team."

I agree with you that he's not good enough to be a corner outfielder on a championship calibre team. And while I don't think the Cubs are a championship calibre team right now, that's what they have to aiming for. But I think that Jody Gerut is good enough to be a centre fielder on a championship calibre team. And that makes a big difference. Good centre fielders are not a dime-a-dozen, not like corner outfielders.

Right now, even without his power stroke, even while he's recovering from injury, Gerut is Hairston with defence and a big platoon split (and that platoon split is a good thing if you have a manager who can exploit it). If he refinds his power stroke, then he's better than that, obviously. Will he refind it? I don't know, he's obviously got to overcome this injury he's still recovering from, and he's got to get back to being the player he once was. I think it's probable he won't achieve that this year, and I think it's possible that he won't ever achieve it. But as long as it's possible that he does, Gerut has value. Look around the rest of baseball and list for me the well-priced centre fielders who can both hit and field. The list isn't that long, I assure you. That's why Corey Patterson remains a very valuable asset, and why Hendry has, he claims (and I believe him) been fighting off vulturous phone calls for Corey Patterson ever since he was demoted to Iowa.

I really don't understand what's changed. Two weeks ago everyone was quite happy to have Gerut. But Dusty hardly uses him, when he does use him he goes 1-for-14 with 2 walks, he swings at a bad pitch against the Giants, and all of a sudden we're happy that we've given him up for a rental? I could probably understand giving up for a rental if that rental was an impact player that would put us over the top? But Matt Lawton is most definately not an impact player, he haemoraghes away most of his offensive value through his poor defence, and the Cubs I don't think are that close to the playoffs right now anyway.

Carmen--"I liken Gerut to Orlando Merced. Merced had a terrific rookie year in Pittsburgh, including power. The league figured him out and he became a valuable bench player..."

Firstly, I know absolutely nothing about Merced, so take everything I say here with a pinch of salt. But Baseball Reference tells me that in his rookie year, 1991, Merced hit .275/.373/.399. Power? Not much, I'd suggest. Baseball Reference also tells me that Merced played very regularly through 1997, and Retrosheet tells he me played not quite every day, but most days. If I had to guess, I'd say he was in a platoon, although that doesn't quite tally with the fact he was a switch hitter. Anyway, a bench player? Only later, from 1998 onwards, I'd suggest. And finally, between 1992-97, Baseball Musing's database tells me that Merced hit .282/.362/.432. The league figured him out? They took their time, I'd suggest.

Also, it doesn't look to me as though Merced had any serious injuries to contend with, though I'm just saying that because of his playing time...

Gregory--"Jody Gerut is a dime-a-dozen ML outfielder. Lawton may be a rent-a-player with fielding flaws, but he's a much more valuable ingredient to a team that still harbors hope of winning the wild card this season, and that's all that should matter."

I vehemently disagree with your assessment of Gerut as "dime-a-dozen". I agree that from here through October, hopefully, Lawton is probably going to be a more valuable player than Gerut. But I clearly disagree with you as to the magnitude of the hope that we harbour of making the playoffs this year, and I think that's the fundamental difference really. That the hope of us making the playoffs (even with Lawton, Garciaparra, Wood, Williamson and, possibly, Van Buren) is smaller than the hope of Jody Gerut rediscovering his game. Maybe I'm just pessimistic, maybe it's just the last homestand talking...

"I really don't think that the Cubs have any use for Sling Blade and his 39-year-old arm and 4.96 ERA anymore."

Funny how all these relief pitchers do so poorly under Rothy and Dusty. Maybe what Remmy needs is what Borowski, Hawkins and Farnsworth needed. A change of venue.

"Two weeks ago everyone was quite happy to have Gerut."

No they weren't.

Pennant, put it this way, no-one thought that Dubois for Gerut was a bad move.

CWTP, what Remlinger needs is either an arm transplant or a time machine.

John, I'm baffled as to what you see in Gerut. His slugging percentage has declined from .494 to .405 to .355 in his three years in the bigs. His unspectacular OBP has held steady (.336 to .334 to .341), which is a pretty good indication that he's found his mean. And, of course, his radical splits pretty much consign him to platoon duty at best.

Positionwise, he's played some center, but he's mostly been a corner outfielder during his three years in the bigs -- and unless he demonstrates that he's going to regain his speed, he'll probably remain one. Since Chris Duffy looks like the real thing for the Pirates in CF, I doubt that we'll see Gerut in any sort of regular role there.

I'll stick with my assessment of Gerut as a dime-a-dozen ML outfielder.

As for the Cubs making the playoffs this season, I'm not all that sanguine about their chances, either. But there's still a lot of season left, and the Cubs are not that far back in the wild-card race. Hendry is not going to run up the white flag yet, and in spite of my pessimism I'd be the first to throw stones at him if he did.

[Deleted - posting under the name of another person]

For everyone who thinks getting Wood, Nomar and Williamson is like picking up 3 players at the trade deadline just remember these words (or something close to it)....

"Sure we have everyone back...but you have to remember these guys had virtually no spring training... They still have some rust to dust off. I wasn't expecting them to come back without any spring training and tear it up right from the start. It would be nice if they could--but you can't expect that. In a few weeks these guys should be at 100%" --Dusty Baker, September 1, 2005 with his team 9 games behind the wildcard leader.

And with that post 173 Dusty gets a lot of "Oh yea that makes sense...." and is off the hook once again. Dusty Baker--The Teflon Manager

[Deleted - posting under the name of another person]

Manny

You don't think post 173 is likely to come from Dusty when the club is still not gaining ground after Nomar, Wood and Williamson get activated?

Those last two posts (172 and 175) are clearly not Manny.

This isn't desipio. Can we not do this?

we KNOW what these kids can do...a lot of people get paid a good chunk of loot to tell people what a kid can and cannot do at any particular time in their development.

Scouting is great, just like stats are great, but there's only one way to KNOW what a player will do at the major league level, and that's to let a kid play.

If scouting is fullproof, then why is Rich Hill in the majors? A year ago the scouts would have said he's a marginal prospect at best. Same with Ronny Cedeno. On the flip side, why isn't David Kelton on the team? Scouts thought he was a sure thing - until he saw AAA pitching.

There's a reason why baseball is littered with top prospects who turned into 4A duds, and why the HoF has more than its sare of players who were never expected to be more than backup-types, all the scouting in the world can't tell you exactly how a player will react in the majors.

Will Cedeno do anything more than Neifi in 2005 if given a chance? We don't know. I highly doubt he'd do much worse, and considering Cedeno's outhit everyone's expectations at AA and AAA, he might do the same if given a chance to play MLB. Similar comparisons can also be made with Murton/Hollandsworth.

Again, I'm not saying scouting isn't valueable, because certainly it is. And I'm not saying you sit Derrick Lee on the bench because you've got a tallented kid who might be ready to play.

But when the downside of a prospect looks as good or better than what you've already got on the field, then its time to let a kid play.

Cubfan,

Post 103 is on the mark. The only thing you forgot is throw in a few man or dude refernces. Any ways those 3 are better than there replacements Neifi (in the line-up) Remlinger, and Mitre. Also they need to make a waiver deal so Wuertz can be sent down.

Anyone consider that years of steroid use have shrunken Raffy's nads to microscopic size? hence the need for massive doses of viagra

Cedeno hasn't played 3rd, but keep in mind Hairston has and Neifi has too, and if the cubs are going to do anything this season they're going to need Ramirez getting the bulk of the PT at 3b. Cedeno is an above average shortstop in the field and I do not doubt that he could handle the responsibilities at 3rd either. We all know the right move is to DFA Macias when Nomar returns, but that will not happen. Cedeno will probably go to AAA, Mitre will go down for Williamson, and I have no idea who the other odd man out is. Remlinger?

Posts #172 & #175 are NOT ME...

Another classless troll on TCR. Hopefully TCR will finally do something to take care of people like this, instead of them slowly taking over.

JH:

"That's not a good attitude to take. That's an attitude that will give you a lot to worry about in 2008.

And the point isn't just that we'd still own the rights to Gerut's 2008, but also that we'd have him in 2006 and 2007 too."

Yeah, I'll second the comments of CarmenFanZone and Gregory. I also normally agree with you, but I just can't see what you see in Gerut. He is a defensive stud, I understand. But he also has 1) major injury issues that he's still coping with 2) a terrible time hitting lefties not to mention 3) a downward swing that needs some serious adjustment even if he 4) rediscovers the power (which at its peak was adequate at best) that he lost.

Now, I'll grant he is a valuable commodity to have off the bench or as a defensive sub, but I can't ever see him being a centerfielder on a championship ballclub. You really do? I think Gregory is right in that he had a great start to MLB play but has now found his median mark.

I was glad to have Jody Gerut as a player that could make a contribution this year, something that Jason Dubois clearly wasn't going to do with Dusty managing and his poor defense. But Gerut wasn't a long term answer. 2007? 2008? I don't think Hendry even verbally committed to him for that long. I surely hope the Cubs and their $100m+ payroll can do something better than that for a corner outfielder, because frankly I'm not convinced that that is isn't all that Jody Gerut will be. With Gerut's serious offensive problems and nagging injuries which could affect his defense, I just don't see him as much of a rising star.

And there seems to be some disagreement here on Lawton's defensive abilities. Most seem to think he's probably a bit above average, though you said he is hemmoraghing away any offensive production that he gives. Wow, I don't know if I'd go that far.

Remlinger is probably the odd man out for two reasons. First he needs like 2-4 days off every time he pitches. Wood and Williamson will be in the same catagory. That is not good to have 3 guys who can't go back to back days. Second they will need a roster spot. One will come from putting Guzman on the 60-day DL. The other will come from doing the same to Greenberg or DFA's to rem, lewis, Koronka, and Rolinchek. I doubt they will 60-day Greenberg because they might want to try him in the OF in September if we fall out of the race. Any of those guys could get DFA'd.

Re #160-

The I-Cubs were in Portland last night and I got to catch the game in person. Williamson pitched an effective 8th--got his 3 outs on 10 or so pitches, nothing hit hard. It sounded like he was throwing harder than Leicester (who started and pitched well), based on the sound of the ball into the catchers mitt.

Jermaine Van Buren got two K's in the 9th, the first on a 3-2 breaking ball that the hitter thought was wide. In between the K's, the Beavers clean up hitter crushed (I mean BELTED!) a ball to the warning track. As he passed by Van Buren they had words but it seemed in fun. Van Buren is kind of animated on the mound, and works fast (think Glendon Rusch). Of course nobody got on so maybe he slows down then. He has an odd delivery--kind of gets the ball up behind his ear for a power sling move. Second K was also on a breaking ball.

Corey had two good at bats (walk in the 9th on borderline 3-2 pitch set up the winning run), and 2 K's on pitch sequences we've all seen too many times.

Crisp game, 2:05 first pitch to last.

Hairston has played a grand total of one game (three innings) at 3B in his career.

"One will come from putting Guzman on the 60-day DL."

Don't think that will happen. He's throwing again and supposed to pitch in two weeks or so, and if he does well, may play in a Fall League.

#185 "He has an odd delivery--kind of gets the ball up behind his ear for a power sling move."

Excellent. A pitcher who throws like a quarterback. Add that to the fact he's in the Cub organization and you've got to figure - what could possibly go wrong? Two questions: 1) Should surgery be scheduled now? 2) Where do we buy tickets for his first simulated game back?

Good Morning Everyone

What with all this season's ups and downs and DOWNS we're sitting there with our heads barely above water at 53-52.

But all is not lost. In 2003 the Cubs took a 69-66 record into September and then the players took over and made Dusty look like a genius by going 19-8 the rest of the way.

Believe it or not, the Cubs this year are a tight-knit group who all want to be here. Maybe now that the trading deadline is past they can unpack their bags and concentrate on baseball. And I don't know about you, but I have a good feeling about what will happen when Woodie, Williamson and Nomar show up Friday.

Right now it looks like Houston is the leader in the Wild-Card race. They're hot right now and we trail them by four. But we have ten games left with the Stros ---SEVEN of our last nine in fact.

They are catchable. It's in our hands.

Go Cubs!

Andrew he can go on a "rehab assignment" while he is on the DL.

pennant.

EXACTLY!!!
this is the team we have. dusty is the manager. the cubs can do it.

sod the stros.

and in the words of ryno - GO CUBS!!!!!

Well I hate to tellyou all but Ronny Cedeno and matt Murton will be sent down when Nomar and Williamson get called up. The big question is what pitcher gets sent down when wood is called up? Probably Sergio Mitre. I don't know if the Cubs want to be carrying 13 pitchers. It would take some radical move on Hendry part to send down another pitcher or DFA to bring it down to 12. If that is the case, I could see Murton stay on for his OBP or Cendeno for his running.

CWTP,

Your 188 post is very true. Houston is catchable. Backe is on the DL and the back end and Astacio and Rodriguez have been below average. Their offense is average and if Berkman goes down again they are in trouble. If we can sweep philly we will have the momentum with Lawton, Nomar, Williamson, and Wood additions. Hendry will use the advantage of our record right now to make a waiver deal by this time next week.

Cedeno, Wuertz and Mitre will get sent down when Nomar, Wood and Williamson get called up

Guinnessman,

The Cubs aren't going to carry 13 pitchers. Having twelve is questionable enough. Wood and Williamson will probably replace Mitre and Wuertz, and Nomar will take Cedeno's spot.

Murton will stick around until Corey comes back up, and he may even survive that assuming Hendry has the sense to DFA Macias.

These next 16 games are going to make or break our season...let's go cubs!!!

>Firstly, I know absolutely nothing about Merced, so take everything I say here with a pinch of salt.
>

I feel very old.

re: gerut, I don't see why you're arguing they should have kept him as a CF. he's not a center fielder. the merced analogy is good, except that I don't think gerut is as good a hitter as merced was.

Check out Scoop Jackson's comments on Dusty on ESPN.com. He suggests that all the criticism of Dusty is 1) racially motivated; and 2) directed by the Chicago media. He says that Cubs fans are being played by the media, just dancing to the tune of the Chicago columnists and talk radio people, not reporters.

He may just be right, especially on 2.

Maybe they will set the roster with 16 pitchers...that way we don't have room for Macias (or Hollandsworth)

After all, Felipe Alou showed Dustbuster how to use 5 pitchers in an inning...and after all, if they do it that way in SF, Dusty will be comfortable with it.

CWTP said: "But all is not lost. In 2003 the Cubs took a 69-66 record into September and then the players took over and made Dusty look like a genius by going 19-8 the rest of the way."

Keep in mind that the 2003 team would have finished 3 games out of the wildcard. We benefitted from a mediocre division that year -- in fact, we finished with one more win in 2004 (89) than we had in 2003 (88). 2004 just looked like a bad year because the Cards were so good and we finished so weak.

He suggests that all the criticism of Dusty is 1) racially motivated

OK Scoop, it's chicken sh** to play the race card to defend Dusty. We just want a winning ballclub. We don't want a Messiah (to paraphrase Dusty's welcome to chicago comments)

...the press just hates people from Sacramento. After all they got Jerry Manual fired too.

...The Cubs sent Adam Greenberg back to the minors. I guess that was an anti-semetic decision.

It sure would be harder to criticize Dusty if he were managing a team with a 69-35 record. I don't hear/read much criticism of Ozzie Guillen by the media lately. Must be a pro-Venezuelan press in Chicago.

Managing a team that is underachieving is why he's getting ripped so often. They've underachieved ever since the 8th inning of game 6 of the NLCS playoffs against the Marlins. He consistently seems to get pantsed with any needed in game strategy by the managers with saavy, like Bobby Cox and Jack McKeon. And we all remember game 7 in that series when Dusty used Dave Veres and McKeon used Josh Beckett. Pantsed, again and again.

Pages

X
  • Sign in with Twitter