Cubs playoff chances

Mmmm...Secret Sauce

One of the many toys at Baseball Prospectus is something they call "Secret Sauce". BP has successfully cracked the code to playoff success and nailed the last 45 World Series winners. What? How have you never heard of this amazing prediction system? Because I made that last part up, but nevertheless a fun tool to look at as we await our playoff opponent.

I looked back through 2000 and BP did predict three World Series winners and six of the 16 participants in the World Series correct. You scoff, but what's your playoff prediction success rate?

The formula is simple enough and rather intuitive to what is commonly believed among baseball folks that power pitching, a good closer and good defense wins in the playoffs. In this case, BP uses FRAA (Fielding Runs Above Average), EqK9 (Equivalent Strikeout Rates per 9 innings) and WXRL (Win above Replacement Pitcher for the team's closer) and comes up with a score.

Their predictions and the 2008 rankings after the jump.

Recent comments

Subscribe to Recent comments
The first 600 characters of the last 16 comments, click "View" to see rest of comment.
  • haha

    crunch 4 min 51 sec ago view
  • Wow -- Chapman gives up a hit and everything completely caves in. I think the Cubs went into collective shock.

    Stolen base with the pitcher holding the ball, WP that should have been caught or blocked, then Russell with a 2-out error on a routine play. Cubs handed them 2 runs. Throw in a Fowler bobble and it was a mess.

    Hopefully, that is all out of their system now -- let's get a W tomorrow.

    billybucks 1 hour 13 min ago view
  • First time I've ever seen a base running slump -- he's made some poor decisions recently, but I thought it was a great idea to try to score there -- it's not like Heyward was going to get a 2-out hit against a LHP. Sliding feet-first into home is probably the safe (ugh) way to go, but it's hard to get the foot on the plate.

    billybucks 1 hour 14 min ago view
  • Yup. He got squeezed (twice) on the first walk, but, when you have one-run lead and the other team is trying to make an out -- take the out.

    billybucks 1 hour 30 min ago view
  • Wasn't fun!

    Brick 1 hour 34 min ago view
  • Clearly the Cubs need to clear out the farm and trade for another closer

    Where's Ed Lynch when you need him?

    Eric S 1 hour 36 min ago view
  • Those were more entertaining times.

    Charlie 1 hour 43 min ago view
  • I wonder if there's an actual cause to this because they were going up hacking at everything. Wonder if scoring a bunch of runs makes you feel like you.can swing at anything and hit it.

    johann 1 hour 50 min ago view
  • That second walk he gave Up was awful though with no pitches even close to being a strike. He was trying to pitch around bunt and that almost never works. That said Rondon should have been brought in after the first walk and should have been left in to finish the inning because he was looking like he had good stuff.

    johann 2 hours 4 min ago view
  • Remember when Bryant used to be able to run the bases with impunity?

    CTSteve 2 hours 6 min ago view
  • And Miggy costs them another run

    Eric S 2 hours 13 min ago view
  • torres would easily be the system's #1 prospect. he's a middle IF'r that's showing he can stick there even as he's gaining bulk/muscle so far. that said, it's not like the distance between torres and jimenez is huge...it's torres's position value that would vault him in prospect status.

    jimenez has the higher ceiling just isolating the bat aspect of his game.

    it would suck to lose either, but torres is a very popular/valuable piece.

    crunch 2 hours 13 min ago view
  • Arrieta in line to lose the game too

    Cruel game

    Eric S 2 hours 14 min ago view
  • ...and chapman fails us. gives up the lead. boo.

    crunch 2 hours 16 min ago view
  • bringing in rondon to try to put out this fire is a nice luxury.

    crunch 2 hours 23 min ago view
  • Complete craziness bottom seven. Bottom line Cubs were fortunate to score a run

    And of course Arrieta walks the first two batters in the eighth (to be fair he was totally squeezed on Zunino's walk to start the inning)

    Eric S 2 hours 27 min ago view