Game 131 Thread / Cubs @ Pirates (1 of 3)

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SP *Ted Lilly SP Jeff Karstens
  12-7, 4.25, 148 K, 56 W, 161 IP 
2-2, 2.25, 11 K, 8 W, 28 IP
       
LF Alfonso Soriano CF *Nate McLouth
SS Ryan Theriot 2B Freddy Sanchez
1B Derrek Lee C  #Ryan Doumit
3B Aramis Ramirez 1B *Adam LaRoche
CF *Jim Edmonds RF  Jason Michaels
2B Mark DeRosa LF *Brandon Moss
RF *Kosuke Fukudome 3B Andy LaRoche
C Geovany Soto SS Jack Wilson
P *Ted Lilly P Jeff Karstens

 

The Cubs open a three-game set at PNC Park, concluding their 9-game stretch against the Reds, Nationals, and Pirates before they resume play against Major League opposition. (Yes, I'm tempting fate: Friday's smug game preview was just a preamble to an ugly 13-5 loss to the Nats, but 30 games over .500, I'm feeling smug all over again.)

Coming off a tough luck defeat in which he held the Reds hitless for the first 5 innings and wound up yielding just 2 hits in 7 IP, Lily has reduced his ERA to a season-low 4.25.The lefty has given the Cubs Quality Starts in 8 of his last 10 turns, and that defeat to Cincinnati was his first after five consecutive W's.

This will mark Lilly's fourth start of the year against the Bucs. He's 1-0, 5.63 in the three previous starts, with a butt-ugly 8.38 ERA in his two outings at PNC.

Karstens, who landed in Pittsburgh as part of the deal that sent Xavier Nady and Damaso Marte to the Yanks, makes his fifth start as a Pirate. In his first, back on 8/1, he blanked the Cubs over six innings. His second time out, he was even better, carrying a perfect game into the eighth inning at Arizona, before eventually closing out a 2-0 complete game win. His last two starts have been much more ordinary—16 hits and 7 ER in 13 IP—and more like what you'd expect from a guy who has fanned just 11 men (and walked 8) in 28 innings.

The Cubs have won 11 of the 15 meetings between the two clubs this year, including 4 of the 6 played in Pittsburgh. 

Lastly, on Sunday, Mark DeRosa became the first Cub since Fred McGriff (2001) to homer in four consecutive games. If DeRo connects tonight, he'll join Sosa ('98) and Sandberg ('89) as the only Cubs since 1956 to go long in five straight.

 

  Sandberg (1989)
Sosa (1998)
McGriff (2001)
DeRosa (2008)
Patsy #1  
Andy McGaffigan  Livan Hernandez Jim Brower Josh Fogg
Patsy #2
Dennis Martinez Jim Parque Wil. Rodriguez John Lannan
Patsy #3
Bryn Smith Carlos Castillo Shane Reynolds     Garrett Mock
Patsy #4
O'Neal/Mulholland*    James Baldwin       Tim Redding Jay Bergmann       
Patsy #5
Larry McWilliams LaTroy Hawkins  ???

*Sandberg homered twice against the Phillies on 8/10/89 and eventually wound up with 6 HR in 5 games. What a stud.

 

Comments

fwiw, Lieber set to make 2 rehab starts with Peoria this week.

since the ted lilly fan club is missing iwill
give it a shot

6and two thirds 3 earned runs 1 unearned
no decision and the game will go extra innings

The Flying LaRoche Brothers!

/drumroll followed by circus music

I made the mistake of tuning in to ESPN1000 over the internet. OMG, Mac, Jurko & Harry are annoying. I sometimes forget important facts like that in my quest for a Cubs fix.

DeRo interview in a few minutes, if I can hold out that long...

DeRo on his recent homer prowess: "...to be honest, I've been guessing right a lot"

:-)

-----

EDIT: And then over to WGN, just in time to hear Ronnie and Gerald Perry laugh about Ted Lilly's prowess with the bat. Priceless.

I was never such a huge fan to begin with, but my MJ&H Are Dead To Me moment came a few weeks ago. Mac was claiming, unconvincingly, to be pro-Cub-success, as follows: "No, no, I'm glad the Cubs are doing well, and I hope they get to the World Series, so they can get swept."

Dead. To. Me.

when we have DeRo having a .373 1.219 7HR 22RBI August.

I ask you, ....rhetorically.

Dammit Lee! Stop getting hits!

Maybe because the Cubs are 16-6 in August with Lee batting #3.

DeRosa is on a hot streak. That's great. But he had an awful July, and is not a #3 hitter. If Lou simply adjusted his order everyday to go with the hot hand, it would be a disaster.

Don't fix something that ain't broke.

I wouldn't have brought it up if it weren't broke.
Lee is clearly not 100% and hasn't been for a while now.

DLee since the All-Star break .234 .304 .331 .635

But like I said, it was a rhetorical question. DLee
bats third because DLee bats third.

Since August 5th Lee is hitting .300 - .382 - .400 - .782 with hits in 12 of 16 games. He basically had a bad 2-3 week stretch from July 18th-August 4th. You don't move a guy in the order because of that. It's a mararthon not a sprint.

by Edmonds....

didn't help that he gawked at it for awhile.

so it would've been an inside the parker if he didn't stop to gawk??

Edmonds didn't gawk, he watched it for a split second. It's been a long time since he had a hit. Triple all the way.

To me it looked more like he was starting to coast for the stand-up double, but then the ball caromed away from the center fielder and he thougt "Oh, shit! Now I've gotta hustle to third." He definitely wasn't going 4, but maybe he could have gotten 3 a little more smoothly.

He gawked at it when he first hit, about a quarter to half way down the first base line before he realized it wasn't going out. Then put on the "afterburners" when he saw it bounce away from McLouth to get the triple. Not that big a deal...just the same shit he did with the Cardinals but no one cares because he's a Cub now.

Aramis sure repaid the five Pirates fans in the crowd for their boos.

Did Theriot come out because he was hurt, or is Lou just resting guys with a big lead?

Lou's resting the regular guys and getting the bench guys some time in the game.

The team could use a few more like that during September to keep rested for the playoffs.

Whatever Lou told Fuk through the translator, it's working tonight. 3-4, a double, sacrifice fly and 4 RBI.

I am loving watching Fukudome look so sharp. Even with his recent struggles, he's still one of my favorite players on this team. Keep it up whirlybird!

5-2 in the doormat (Cincy, WAS, PIT) stretch. 7-2 would be very nice.
Pitching matchup sure looks favorable tomorrow. Hope Z can get it together.

From Cubs Mail Bag!!

Didnt Zambrano do this a few years back?

Who was the last switch-hitter for the Cubs to hit a home run from both sides of the plate in the same inning? I say it was Mark Bellhorn, but a buddy of mine says no Cubs switch-hitter has ever done that. A free dinner rides on the answer.
-- Charlie P., New Johnsonville, Tenn.

On Aug. 29, 2002, Bellhorn homered from both sides of the plate for the Cubs in Milwaukee in the fourth inning. Enjoy your meal.

Shit!!! it says same inning.

My bad

Nice win today.

Edmonds and Fukudome looking sharp. I sure wouldn't want to face our lineup on a day when we're firing on all cylinders.

There's not a starter that I don't think can contribute offensively on any given day. I sure hope Fukudome can put it back together again. We're on track to have six starters finish the year with over 20 HRs and all 8 starting position players have over .340 OBP. Add our terrifying trio of starting pitchers, Lily as our #4, and Wood, Marmol, Samardzija, Marshall, and (maybe) Lieber out of the pen. Hot damn. I think this team's got a real shot at it!

Nothing like pounding the 90 pound weakling in the division with your #4 starter going 7 strong to make things look rosy.

It's the dude's first year in the big leagues. He's not used to playing more than 140 games/year. He's allowed to slump, imo.

Well he started slumping well before game #140. I bet he has a newfound respect for Ichiro, right about now.

Suntimes article about the bottom third of the Cubs order:

As impressive as DeRosa's and Soto's numbers are, consider this: The Cubs' No. 7 spot in the order was hitting a major-league best .310 with 20 homers and 83 RBI (entering play Monday).

No. 8: .293 with 11 and 64.

And perhaps most impressive of all: The pitchers' spot, No. 9, was hitting better (.227-8-52) than four American League teams -- Kansas City (.226), the Los Angeles Angels (.226), Baltimore (.225) and Oakland (.218).

this tidbit in the S-T:

The Class AAA Iowa Cubs are back in the playoffs for the first time in four years, and one small ramification at the big-league level is that a few anticipated September roster additions might stay with Iowa through its playoff series.

The exceptions: Pitchers Jon Lieber (foot) and Angel Guzman (elbow) are expected to be activated from the DL when rosters expand, and lefty hitter Micah Hoffpauir, who's having a monster season, is expected to join the big club right away.

http://www.suntimes.com/sports/baseball/cubs/11264...

So Hill, DuBois, Pie, Hart and Wuertz stick with AAA until the playoffs are over? No biggie. The Hoff is the main guy I want to see up anyway. He's got a shot at replacing Ward next year. Hill looks like a candidate to take Hank White's job when he goes off and becomes a starting catcher for a non-contender.

I don't really "get" the AAA playoffs. What's at stake, really? Why would an organization hold anyone back from helping out the big league team in order to perform better in the AAA playoffs? Or is it more that a few players who might get a few big league innings as a "reward" for their AAA performance will just have to wait 'til next year?

I don't think anything's really at stake except pride. These guys play for a team all year, and even though the main goal is to prepare for the big leagues, they're still competitive athletes who want to win. It would be weird if there were no playoffs. I mean, there's nothing at stake in my rec league softball playoffs, but I still try like hell to win.

Part of it is reward for battling the entire year and playing well. Part of it is experience in a playoff atmosphere and winning a championship. While it is not the same as it is at the Major League Level, having your minor leaguers know what it takes to win is important. Getting your teams more swings and pitches against the best competition in pressure situations can't hurt at all.

Also, the first round best of 5 series starts on September 3rd. So depending on how that goes, the potentially call-ups might only be called up a few days later than normal. If they make it to the next round the best of 7 starts on the 9th. So even if they go all the way they could still be up for 2 weeks instead of 4 with the Cubs.

And if they really thought they'd help out the big league team they will get called up regardless of the playoffs - like Hoffpauer will.

Thanks, guys.

The Sept callups don't play anyway or barely at that. Wouldn't you rather play for a AAA championship and get your cuts in then sit on the bench for an extra week or possibly two? The same players will still get called up.

Anyone else think Hoffpauer is AAAA player rather than the next big thing?

They are talking him up big time on Chicago radio.

Don't forget Jason DuBois had a similar monster-type season at AAA, and he was 2 years younger than Hoff when he did it. I'm not dogging Hoffpauir, he is a legit ML PH/IB/LF guy, he is Ross Gload revisited. There is nothing wrong with having a cheap Ross Gload on the roster.

A batting average of .368 is not the same as .314.

Soto hit .355 last season. He's lost 75 points of BA in the majors, but he could afford it. So can Hoffpauir. Where would a 75 point drop leave Dubois?

Pie hits .280-.285 in AAA, and drops 50 or 60 on the train to Chicago. I'm not so sure we'll see him in September. What's the point? He's not even the right callup if you just want someone to steal bases.

A batting average of .368 is not the same as .314.

Really? I thought they were the exact same!

Of course... you also ignore the fact that Hoffpauir currently has a .365 BABIP in AAA. That is not sustainable.

I'm not so sure we'll see him in September.

Wanna' put money on it?

What's the point? He's not even the right callup if you just want someone to steal bases.

Well... being that he is probably the best defensive outfielder in the Cubs system, and better than anyone on the active roster, base running wouldn't be all he is good for.

And stealing bases is not the only aspect of base running.

anybody else hoping for a cardinal sweep this week

Yes, go Cardinals!

~throws up in mouth~

We have to root for the Cardinals. The Brewers' schedule is much, much easier than the Cubs' from here on out. I like being in first, but five games is just not that much.

Consider:

--these two games are the last time the Cardinals and the Brewers play each other this year

--the Cubs will play a total of 5 more games against below .500 teams this year

--the Cubs play over a third of their remaining games against Milwaukee and St. Louis

--while the Cubs have had a great August so far (16-5), the Brewers have kept pace (17-6)

Here's the rest of the schedule as of today:

Cubs:

31 games left (18 away, 13 home)

2 @ PITT, 4 PHI, 3 HOU, 3 @ CIN, 3 @ STL, 3 @ HOU, 3 MIL, 3 STL, 4 @ NY, 3 @ MIL

Games against above .500 teams (26):

4 PHI, 3 HOU, 3 @ STL, 3 @ HOU, 3 MIL, 3 STL, 4 @ NY, 3 @ MIL

Games against below .500 teams (5):

2 @ PITT, 3 @ CIN

Brewers:

31 games left (15 away, 16 home)

2 @ STL, 3 @ PITT, 3 NY, 4 SD, 3 CIN, 4 @ PHI, 3 @ CUBS, 3 @ CIN, 3 PITT, 3 CUBS

Games against above .500 teams (15):

2 @ STL, 3 NY, 4 @ PHI, 3 @ CUBS, 3 CUBS

Games against below .500 teams (16):

3 @ PITT, 4 SD, 3 CIN, 3 @ CIN, 3 PITT

Cardinals:

30 games left (15 away, 15 home)

2 MIL, 3 @ HOU, 3 @ ARI, 3 FLA, 3 CUBS, 3 @ PITT, 3 @ CIN, 3 @ CUBS, 4 ARI, 3 CIN

Games against above .500 teams (21):

2 MIL, 3 @ HOU, 3 @ ARI, 3 FLA, 3 CUBS, 3 @ CUBS, 4 ARI

Games against below .500 teams (9):

3 @ PITT, 3 @ CIN, 3 CIN

Makes me wish we had about a 12 game lead right now.

Recent comments

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  • he subscribes to my twitter, he's beyond TCR. #yolo #swag

    crunch 22 min 1 sec ago view
  • Whoops. Maddon must have been reading TCR (for his daily crunch) and got confused.

    CTSteve 24 min 28 sec ago view
  • kuhl is a righty, not a lefty.

    i think maddon might think kuhl is a lefty, too. i wonder what the reasoning is for baez leading off vs a rightie.

    crunch 1 hour 5 min ago view
  • "trout's one of the best, and at this point should probably win over donaldson (and should have more MVPs in the past, too), but the defensive aspect of valuing WAR still needs more tweaking...imo."

    that's from my 1st post. there's no suck involved in that. maybe with a few less posts about bullshit that point would have jumped out more.

    crunch 1 hour 52 min ago view
  • crunch - you do know that, taking defense out of the equation, Trout has led the AL in wRC+ each of those years, right?

    And, if you want to complain about position adjustment (which would be serious #crunchsplaining), he's been in the top 3 in the AL in WC (not park/league/position adjusted). And the only players ahead of him (if there were any players ahead of him) in any of those years have been DHs or 1B that play lousy defense.

    But sure - Trout sucks (or at least isn't as good as WAR says). Because it factors in defense and position.

    big_lowitzki 2 hours 57 min ago view
  • early tim tebow stuff rolling in...

    ran a 6.7 60yd (above average)...shagging flies in RF and showed off a rather impressive arm a few times, but average-at best on most of his throws...hit a few over the fence (both fields), fouled or weak contact a few...he's got a touch of power

    it'll be interesting to see who bites on this project, if anyone. he probably projected himself out of RF and into LF/1st because of his arm, but unless he can make that power work on a steady basis it'll be hard for him to play himself up anyone's system.

    crunch 3 hours 42 min ago view
  • LHP Clayton Richard (released by the Cubs earlier this month) is pitching very well as a starting pitcher for the San Diego Padres and could be a good candidate to get traded to a contender looking for a veteran SP before tomorrow night's post-season roster eligibility deadline.

    Because they released him, the Cubs are paying most of Richard's 2016 salary (the Cubs are on the hooks for $2M, minus the pro-rated portion of the MLB minimum salary that is paid by the Padres).

    Arizona Phil 5 hours 29 min ago view
  • it is honestly awesome (for real) that anyone would even have a strong opinion on AZL playoffs. i guess if you invest enough time watching it, you want to see a fair/just playoff structure.

    plus, the kids deserve it.

    crunch 5 hours 30 min ago view
  • The AZL team with the best record over the course of the full 2016 AZL season and the only AZL team to play .600 ball (the AZL Dodgers) did not qualify for the AZL playoffs, and the AZL East Division team with the best record over the course of the full season (the AZL Athletics) did not qualify for the AZL playoffs, either. 

    That's because of the ridiculous "split season" schedule most of the minor leagues now play, a stupid system that rewards mediocrity at the expense of the worthy. 

    Arizona Phil 5 hours 37 min ago view
  • Despite good movement on his fastball, I think location kept him from getting Ks. Left some pitches up and away that got hammered up and away. Then of course Travis Wood gave up the 2-run double in the 7th, but both runs counted against Arrieta.

    Charlie 6 hours 13 min ago view
  • "i'm gonna make you my main squeeze one day, bro. save the date."

    This level of discourse is #charming.

    #baseballtalk

    Tito 6 hours 13 min ago view
  • I would be having this discussion with anyone who (a) blathered on ad nauseum about the topic. (See, "Olt, Mike, not given an opportunity") or (b) responded directly to what I posted (which you did).

    Have a nice day.

    #baseballtalk

    Tito 6 hours 16 min ago view
  • what would you do without me? aside from having your posting content here cut by 75%+?

    i'm gonna make you my main squeeze one day, bro. save the date.

    crunch 6 hours 19 min ago view
  • In this instance, yes, I care more about the result of this big thing that isn't really a big thing.

    #crunchsplaining

    #willlistentojeffsullivanmorethanyou

    #blessyourheart

    #hitler

    #tcrmartyr

    #billyhamiltonwar

    #baseballtalk

    Tito 6 hours 20 min ago view
  • Two things:

    Fangraphs WAR #s include baserunning and Hamilton is elite at that. He leads in SBs with the 54 and and has an 87% rate which is really good. I'm sure once he gets on base he's able to take the extra base quite often too. Both those things will up his overall WAR value.

    The differences between BR and FG WAR is pretty well documented online and thus If there are discrepancies it's fairly easy to figure out why. It's fairly well accepted that BR WAR is fine as a snapshot but FG is better at predicting future value.

    johann 6 hours 24 min ago view
  • i have no doubt at all you quit reading at that point. you're very enamored with outcomes without caring what it takes to get there.

    the fact it's exploitable, especially without someone to cover the running game for him, as well it's evolution in how people are testing possible exploits is interesting to some people...to me...i'm some people...hurrah.

    some people want to check the boxscore to see who won, some want to know how it went down.

    crunch 6 hours 37 min ago view