Castro vs. Barney

Provided with no comment (click on the links if you're not familiar with the saber stats)

Darwin Barney (Age 26):

  • 268/309/389 .306 wOBA, 85 wRC+
  • 4.9 BB%, 9.5 K%
  • 31 XBH, 31 RBI, 48 R, 6/7 SB
  • 7.9 UZR, 2.0 WAR

Starlin Castro (Age 22):

  • 272/301/414 .303 wOBA, 83 wRC+
  • 3.9 BB%, 16 K%
  • 32 XBH, 52 RBI, 53 R, 17/27 SB
  • 7.1 UZR, 2.1 WAR

Comments

I'm assuming these are year 2012 numbers, not career stats. The old codger Rush fan in me keeps wanting to write 2112 whenever I refer to 2012. I really hate that.

Barney has turned into a better player than I ever thought he would be, actually. And Castro - I think his improving defense (I remember a really low UZR last year) may be impacting his hitting a bit from the standpoint of focus, but for all I know that theory is baloney. I doubt Castro really projects much higher than a .800 something OPS /15 homer guy, but that isn't too bad.

Jed rushed Castro into the bigs. Shoulda been seasoned one more year at Tacoma.

/ : 0

While I like Barney, I really hope people aren't starting to pass judgement on a 22 year old player who's shown clear indication he works to get better (defense).

Definitely. It's really hard to know how far Castro can go still. I think it's to be expected that he hits a bit of a bump. Hitting at that level is just such a hard thing to do and he started off like he had figured it out really early. But he's struggled some this year. That's okay, so did Josh Hamilton for a really long stretch.

Yeah. Let's not all jump on top of Castro during a slump. My biggest concern about his numbers this year is that his BB% is down instead of up. He'll be the Cub's number 2 hitter in his prime.

I am jumping on him, godamn it!

Its b/c of him we are not making the Playoffs this year!!

If only we had Neifi Perez to take his place. That would have saved the season.

"Neifi saved us, Dude"

Johnnie B. Baker, 2005

Ha!

Lame ass comment. You know damn well who to blame.

I blame Michael Barrett.

I'm not a regular poster here, but it cracks me up to see how many folks around these parts are on the bash a 22-year old wagon. The kid hasn't even filled out yet...
I see Castro sliding to 2B and making more of a Brandon Phillips comparison. In 2003, Phillips played 112 games at 22 yrs with a .981 FLD%... was out of the Bigs until 2006 when he posted a .977 with the Reds at 26 yrs, after the tribe gave up on him. Since '06 Phillips has averaged a 3.48 WAR. I'm not saying Castro is going to develop into a GG caliber SS/2B, but offensively he has a very similar in body type as phillips and an average projection of .300-22-85-20 would make him a pretty damn valuable 2B going forward, especially if Baez stays at SS.

While I have been on the Barney bandwagon (which has broken down on LaHair, apparently) since I saw him in the CWS, he seems to be a #8 batter. He is better than Theriot with more range, and unless HoyStein gets something in a package for real value, it seems like he is the kind of player Jed likes up the middle to save runs.

It is a great thing to have. As Goldstein says, "He's a baseball player who will play in the Big Leagues for ten years and deservedly so."

It's important to remember context when you quote as well. Goldstein said that while he isn't really a starter but more of a backup.

some Muskat tweet tidbits:

today is Rizzo's 23rd birthday

cub record thru 108 games is 2011 and 2012 is identical: 43-65

lineup... Jakkkkson sits, Soriano returns: DeJesus, Barney, Rizzo, Soriano, Castro, Castillo, Vitters, Mather (RF), Samardzija

My problem with Barney is that on a really good team you can aford to have a good field no hit 2B. However, on a crappy team you can't afford that luxury. Is it worth keeping him 2 - 3 years until we become good? My vote is no, get something for him while you still can. If he could only draw walks and get his ob% to .340 - .350 or so, he would be worth keeping.

I see this sentiment on Barney a lot from posters and talk shows all over, and I get it. Where it stops for me is -- Barney for who? Is the return worth 1 to 3 WAR value more than Barney? Would the Cubs be just trading a so-so MLB player for someone else's so-so player?

That's my take whenever the subject of trading Barney or Castro for Upton or, for that matter, almost any trade (except veterans/big contracts for prospects) at this point in TheJedi's 'rebuilding' project.

Fundamentally, I'd like to see Ricketts spend $60-70M on FA's this off-season for no other reason than he probably can. Perversely, I'd like to see him have to decide - better team? or better ballpark? However, what do the Cubs get back? More Crawfords, Lackeys, and Soriano's? Or worse than that - 4 to 5 year deals that when the 'waves' of MLB-ready prospects arrive, there's 4 to 5 pieces of dead weight soaking up $60M in payroll where $500K prospects could produce better.

I love adding FA's, but who? For how long? Playing where? Blocking who in 3 years?

Welcome to Miami!

This is my point. Why not have the best defensive 2B in the middle of our infield for a few years? As GA states, realistically, unless it is some kind of a nice package of players, who do you get back for Barney that makes it worthwhile?

Actually, on a crappy team, you CAN afford it. My feeling is that for a guy like Barney, most teams are content to wait for players like him to become available for dirt cheap.

Fontenaught is available. We need more scrappy.

shame he can't field 2nd/3rd worth a damn...his bat is decently bench-quality...but hell, you can get a washed up 1st/OF to outperform that kinda performance without the D.

people can still use UZR while keeping a straight face?

also, d.barney is nearing 100 games without an error.

I actually don't even really have the foggiest understanding of UZR. It reminds me a bit of QB ratings in football, which does have this empirical formula that I don't give a shit about in the slightest.

In Castro's case, it just so happens that his UZR sucked and now it doesn't, and my eyes also tell me that he has improved in the field.

6:35 (EST) start time for a mid-week game in SD?

okay, sure. also, after watching the "away" feed for what feels like a week i can finally watch some len/bob on wgn.

Happy Birthday Tony Four Sacks

dejesus is working hard to make the cubs pay him $1.5m to go away next season rather than paying the full $6.5m to keep him around.

i wouldn't complain seeing him next year if he at least picks up the hitting/ob% part of his game.

he's not fallen sharply yet, but his minimal power hasn't reappeared and he's in a cruddy 2nd half slump so far...

Wed, 08/08/2012 - 5:06pm — crunch

dejesus is working hard to make the cubs pay him $1.5m to go away next season rather than paying the full $6.5m to keep him around.

i wouldn't complain seeing him next year if he at least picks up the hitting/ob% part of his game.

he's not fallen sharply yet, but his minimal power hasn't reappeared and he's in a cruddy 2nd half slump so far...

=========================

CRUNCH: DeJesus signed a three-year $15M contract ($10M guaranteed) last off-season where he gets $4.25M (guaranteed) per season 2012-13 plus a third year club option ($6.5M or $1.5M buy-out) for 2014.

So unless he gets traded in the meantime, DeJesus will almost certainly be back in a Cub uniform in 2013.

forgot we were working with a 2/3, not a 1/2...i still think it's a good gamble, though i'd like to see more of the 30-double/10-homer guy he's shown himself to be in the past.

Umpire Bill Miller took a pitch directly to the mask on a fastball where the catcher was crossed up in the bottom of the first inning in Oakland. Later on, twice during the game he rang up a batter on strike two. During the bottom of the sixth, the second base umpire left the game, then came back suited up with the home plate equipment. When the second base umpire came back out with two outs, Miller handed him his baseballs without a word and left. I watched the bottom of the sixth on mlb tv archive, and it looked like the switchover was something the umpires discussed beforehand.

Did the home ump go to second?

If he left the game it might be a mild concussion. A fastball upside the head, or on the chin can surely cause one.

He left the game. The ball missed the catcher's glove and hit him at the bottom of the mask.

he's a good dude, pretty good evaluator imo...but didn't manage the big organizational picture. And for all I know, a lot of that blame could be the ownership in flux, he poured a lot of resources into the major league team, but should have been doing the same into the minor league system at that time (2007 time period of course). But who knows how much flexibility he had...

Ricketts seem to get it though and I know TheJedi do...be nice if I knew their timeframe because right now it seems like 2015 which is gonna piss off a lot of fans.

excerpt from Kevin Goldstein on the Brett Jackkkkson call up:

If Jackson can close some of the massive holes in his swing, he's a true five-tool player. He has above-average raw power and speed, and the ability to post a string of 20/20 seasons. That gives him excellent long-term potential. However, the "ifs" regarding his swing are gigantic ones. He has a good understanding of the strike zone and is not prone to chasing, but he's not a sound hitter. There isn't an obvious flaw in his swing, or a tendency to chase sliders or something like that, he's just not that good of a hitter. The hope is that he can display enough power, speed and defense to make up for a low batting average.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php...

Interesting thing about Jackson is that the sky is the limit. Well, not a Troutish sky, maybe, but it's high. Problem is that the opposite is also true. He could be a permanent member of the Mendoza club.

I'm getting my first looks at Jackson. Maybe Goldstein has seen him a lot, or maybe he is just improvising. But the Jackson I'm seeing is very "prone to chasing." I don't see much difference between Jackson right now and Colvin last year. On two strikes, they start hacking and don't stop till it's strike three.

Sveum said this yesterday: "We're learning a lot about him, and it's basically come down to swinging out of the strike zone. It's not like he's swinging through anything."

That's the opposite of what Goldstein is saying. A "massive hole" means you swing through pitches.

I don't want to get into name-calling, but if you can't figure out that pitchers at this level don't throw strikes if you don't force them to, then you didn't get into Berkeley on your SAT scores.

Jackson has always maintained a high ML On Base %.

Colvin didn't even walk in College.

Reports on Jackson in the minors have always been that he has a good command of the strike zone but that he swings through strikes a lot. Maybe Sveum has seen the opposite, but let's trust the larger sample size for now. And maybe Jackson is going through a phase (during his first MLB callup) where is chasing--doesn't mean that's what caused his K rate in his minor league career.

"Reports on Jackson in the minors have always been that he has a good command of the strike zone etc."

Professional scouts who write such reports--and also turn in hotel and fast-food receipts--do not file their reports on the internet. We may not have seen reliable reports on Jackson. Sveum has said a few times that he wanted to see the strikeout machine with his own eyes, because the numbers didn't make sense.

Sveum has pointed out that even in games where Jackson got a few extra-base hits, the outs would all be strikeouts.

It's odd for a player to either hit the ball hard or miss it completely. What happened to the popups and the easy grounders to second and short? The data sample, small though it is, shows Jackson "protecting the plate" or whatever it's called when you swing at everything on two strikes. That approach becomes untenable in the majors and also the high minors, where pitchers have learned how to make hitters look foolish.

As for Dr. Aaron's point about Jackson's career OBP versus Colvin's: that's a very good question and I don't have an immediate answer, but I suppose it would be possible to be a very patient hitter until you have two strikes, at which point you go into the panic mode that produces the large number of strikeouts. If the count goes to 3-1, then 3-2, maybe you don't panic, because you can smell a walk. You might get a lot of walks without actually working the count.

To me, working the count means getting from 0-2 or 1-2 to 3-2.

I think Brant Brown might end up being a good comp to Bjax. It's something I've largely thought all year.

Big kid with some speed and power. Can play CF. Tons of swing and miss in their games.

Brant was able to have a couple of good MLB years. He brought us a great pitcher in trade. Ultimately a bit of a letdown.

"Tons of swing and miss"

But did Brown have any swing-and-hit? Look at his age-23 and 24 seasons--in AA, for Pete's sake. 5 or 6 home runs, .390 SLG. Jackson: 20 HRs last year, 10 of them in AAA; 15 homers this year. Career SLG: .488.

Sometimes I feel sympathy for Cub fans who grew up in the Gary Scott era. In retrospect, I was pretty lucky in the '60s.

1987 was my first really coherent season as a fan.

I'm still waiting to have mine.

Nicely played!

+ a bunch

'87 was the middle of a long dormant period for me--far from Chicago, WGN cable not locally available, etc. Woke up briefly in '98 for Soto-McGuire, then for good about the time Dusty arrived.

Without looking it up, can't place Scott or Brown accurately in the 80's-90's.

Brant Brown came on the scene during the 98 season. He played a serviceable CF and flashed some power, and hit 290-ish. Looked like he might be a player.

We dealt him that offseason for Jon Lieber.

I thought he played LF? Isn't that where he dropped the famous milwaukee non-clinch flyball?

Perhaps can't place Soto in 90's-00's?

Got to love autocorrect.

it certainly would be out of the realm of possibility that a rookie was a bit overanxious in the majors in 3 games and may not be reflective of how he played in the minors.

Hey man, you can trust years of scouting or you can trust the few days of observation from the guy who's successfully leading the Cubs to a record just under .400. I'll trust the major league manager; it's what my gut tells me.

Recent comments

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  • *stroking intensifies*

    crunch 38 sec ago view
  • #crunchsplaining

    Thanks for the awesome give and take today and for the 535 words you spilled filling in all the gaps that I woefully neglected. We're all a little wiser and better for it. I look forward to your play-by-play summary later in the comments.

    Rob G. 7 min 7 sec ago view
  • it was about a post comparing players based on WAR...and comparing WAR values of a CF to a slew of other players...a post that you made...and i made a comment...that talked about D weighting of WAR...and comparinging WAR values of a CF to a slew of other players...etc etc...

    hell, we didn't even get in deep. i didn't even involve UZR or FIP versions and their strengths/weaknesses...or position mandated "handicapping" in points...etc.

    let's not talk about that...cool, fine, awesome. context sucks. san dimas highschool football rules.

    *shrug*

    crunch 15 min 2 sec ago view
  • Ha

    jacos 30 min 40 sec ago view
  • Thanks for shining a light on this very important topic and steering it away from the frivolity that was the awesomenes of Mike Trout, but moreso on the foolishness of WAR as a metric to judge the value of center fielders. We're all a little wiser now and your contributions are invaluable to this community and to America's pastime. God Bless!

    Rob G. 53 min 14 sec ago view
  • so...what's chan-yong lim up to these days?

    http://www.thescore.com/mlb/news/1088746-korean-le...

    oh...

    crunch 2 hours 17 min ago view
  • yes, those hamilton WAR numbers are very reasonable. i'm on your side now based on that biting commentary and reasoning of why he's a 3.5-ish WAR player over a 600 PA season.

    those numbers are obviously well deserved and worthy of no scrutiny...none at all. no issue.

    CF D is rarer than a jon lester pickoff at 2nd...totally irreplaceable...no way in hell there's good D, low/no-hitting CF's in anyone's system that could do what hamilton is doing. guys like this don't exist...you get like, 2-3 at any given time in history.

    crunch 2 hours 37 min ago view
  • Please do not discuss War here. I think the Cub Reporter should be politics free.

    But yes, whether you support War or Peace...Mike Trout is ridiculously consistent and good.

    blockhead25 4 hours 56 min ago view
  • ^^^#WARTruther

    Rob G. 5 hours 8 min ago view
  • "According to FOX Sports' Jon Morosi, Tim Tebow's baseball workout Tuesday in Los Angeles will be attended by scouts from "roughly half" of the 30 major league teams."

    "One scout told ESPN.com last week that Tebow's swing is so long it might "take out the front row." That's not a good thing."

    crunch 7 hours 39 min ago view
  • MyrtleBeachPelicans [email protected]

    The #MBpelicans and @Cubs have extended their PDC through 2020!
    ----
    Carolina League getting 2 new teams too.

    QuietMan 7 hours 58 min ago view
  • CF WAR is ridiculous...billy hamilton is pulling a 3.0 WAR somehow...and managed a 2.0 WAR last year (even though he missed a month of the season)...and a 3.7 WAR in 2014.

    yeah, a lot depends on how one is doing relative to others at a given position, but WAR is common used (right or wrong) as a blanket comparing all kinds of players.

    trout's one of the best, and at this point should probably win over donaldson (and should have more MVPs in the past, too), but the defensive aspect of valuing WAR still needs more tweaking...imo.

    crunch 8 hours 3 min ago view
  • Rob G. 8 hours 37 min ago view
  • Don't know if Cubs will recover from "spanking" Gordo

    http://chicago.suntimes.com/sports/cubs-sent-home-...

    jacos 11 hours 10 min ago view
  • 2nd in defensive WAR, NL.

    6th in NL in RBI

    Go complain about something else, like, "they never play good against the good teams", or some other shit.

    The E-Man 23 hours 36 min ago view
  • Addy really has trouble breaking through .250 BA -- after his hot streak got him to .251, he has gone 1-for-17.

    billybucks 1 day 52 min ago view