Where’s Theriot?

GAME 145 IN-GAME DISCUSSION THREAD [PARACHAT] CINCINNATI REDS (67-76) @ CHICAGO CUBS (71-73) WRIGLEY FIELD, 7:05 pm CDT, TV: WGN, Fox Sports Ohio
Carlos Zambrano, RHP
13-5, 3.18 ERA
180/78 K/BB, 15 HR in 195.0 IP
Eric Milton, LHP
7-14, 6.63 ERA
111/47 K/BB, 39 HR in 165.2 IP
2B Ryan Freel CF Jerry Hairston Jr.
SS #Felipe Lopez 2B *Todd Walker
LF *Adam Dunn 1B Derrek Lee
CF Wily Mo Pena 3B Nomar Garciaparra
1B *Sean Casey RF *Jeromy Burnitz
C Jason LaRue C Michael Barrett
3B Edwin Encarnacion LF Matt Murton
RF Chris Denorfia SS #Neifi Perez
P *Eric Milton P #Carlos Zambrano
Just kidding about the title, we can hopefully agree that this is about the best lineup we can hope for with the current Cubs personnel. Don't forget to listen in on the Jaxx quest for the Southern League championship. It's currently 4-2 Jaxx in the top of the second, 3 of the runs coming in on a Brandon Sing homer off Dodger uber-prospect Chad Billingsley. Jae-kuk Ryu is going for the Jaxx. Go Cubs!!!

Comments

Make it 6-2 Jaxx, Matt Craig hit a 2 run shot in the top of the 2nd.

Out of all of the Jaxx starting pitchers this season (Hill,Marmol, Marshall, Nolasco, Pinto, Ryu) which one do you think makes the best pro. My feeling is it will be Nolasco. His neutral style is made for Wrigley. If he has control of his pitches he could throw to the conditions. Also he has stayed pretty healthy which seems to be a mircle for pitcher's in this organization. The only place he struggled was at AAA and he was called up there more because they needed somebody than they felt he was enterly ready for it. Anyone else have any thoughts on the matter?

That's my Papa!

If houston can get 3 from florida I believe the cubs can get in with a 14-4 record. Both the phillies and Florida have 6 games each against ATL. If atl wins 4 out of 6 Florida has to go 6-6 in the other games and Philly has to go 7-5. Florida's other games are against Philly NYM and Washington. Philly's are Florida, Cin NYM and Was. I'll make a prediction: IF We finish 14-4 taking 5 out of 7 from Houston we will at least tie for the wild card. Unless Florida sweeps houston. Go Cubs Give us something good to tell our future grandkids about!!!

NCFAN, you are absolutely delusional.

I'm having problems with the WTenn feed on the net tonight since the 5th ining...but can get the Jacksonville feed. 8th inning Jaxx 7 Suns 4

No way Macias is a better hitter than Big Z.

So Baker lifts Z for Macias. Does he read statistics that say Z's VORP is 11 something while Macias's is -3.2. WHY DOES HE KEEP GETTING AT-BATS??

I just looked it up. Z was a better hitter last year according to VORP too.

Diamond Jaxx Win!! (lead best of 5 series, 1-0) West Tenn 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 7 9 0 Jacksonville 2 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 7 0

looks like Michael Barrett still needs to work on rundowns between home and 3rd... Good fundamentals from Dusty's squad? Now that's an oxymoron.

Wouldn't this be a great place to have C-Pat bunt instead of Theriot? That is one thing that C-Pat does decently. And as I write this, Theriot strikes out looking. And anyone want to question Dusty's decision to bunt in front of DLee so that they could walk Lee?

Matt Murton for President!!! Let's see 2 runs scored, 1 rbi, .354 average. See Dusty, he can play 9.

Cubs Win!!! In Dusty We Trusty!!! One game under .500. 9-3 in Sept. Go Cubs!!

good job for the bullpen tonight.

I just looked it up. Z was a better hitter last year according to VORP too. You are missing the concept behind VORP. A player with a better VORP isn't always the better hitter. VORP is value over a replacement, at his position. A replacement pitcher and a replacement PH are different. Look at EqA, Z's better this year, but Macias was last season. Vorps biggest concept is value, you really don't want to look at it when you are comparing hitting only.

Well, I certainly hope, though, that we can agree that the fact that Z has a better EqA this year than one of our utility/pinch-hit bats off the bench is pathetic even if he didn't manage to top the guy last year too.

Still tired from having seen the game tonight. Was cool to see Theriot's first AB. yeah he K'ed but he really battled after getting into an 0-2 hole. "quality process, result needs work." I know somewhere there's a chart of odds of scoring, and that the odds say it's easier to score 1 run with 1st & 0 outs than 2nd & 1 out but 1st & 2nd + 1 out is still pretty good. How often does Walker GIDP? (Hmm... vs. Nomar...)

Merigoldbowling, I don't think Dusty would know VORP from a REIT, nor does he care to know. He just looks under BA and see that Macias is hitting .275 or something. But someone should introduce Dusty to OBP, which for Macias is also about .275 and therefore awful, and his slugging percentage, which I will SWAG for Macias at about .300, which is pitiful. But Dusty, and the other bigshot managers love the "flexubility" that a guy like Macias brings to the party. I wish the party would start without him. Murton does appear to be such an offensive force that even Dusty and Hendry can't ignore or dismiss him any longer. I don't think he can keep slugging at this rate, but he has the pedigree to be a high average, high OBP, low strike out guy the Cubs so desperately need. Yes, it would be nice if he was faster and a better defender, but beggars can't be choosers, and he looks better, and will be a lot cheaper, then some of the stiffs on this year's free agent market. Putting Murton in left leaves only two outfield spots to fill. I still prefer Hairston as a super utility guy, altough I'm sure Hairston prefers to start. Although playing Murton and Hairston everyday rather than Patterson makes the Cubs offense significantly better, I don't think it is enough to get the Cubs to 13-4 the rest of the way, especially with inconsistent 4th and 5th starters and Dusty still experimenting with the bullpen (see yesterday's game when he brought Mitre in rather than Wuertz or Williamson when Ohman got into trouble). This Cubs team had some significant problems this year and it is not better than it's record (lack of depth in starting rotation, offense from outfield, overall defense and fundamentals, and bullpen, in that order (I know Crunch will disagree with this, but I think the bullpen problems were mostly self-inflicted by Dusty's misuse of Hawkins, his abandonment of the Dempster as closer plan, his misuse of Remlinger as a lefty specialist (although Rem might just be finished), and using Fox 3 days in a row, the last time in a blow out, where he hurt his arm). Looking back, you have to wonder how many games the Cubs might have won back in June, when Derek Lee just owned the league, and Dusty had the out machines, Neifi and Corey, batting in front of him 1-2. Joe Sheehan's article on the Cubs posted on preminium baseballprospectus web site on this showed some very ugly statistics where the Cubs lead-off hitters had a below .300 OBP during this period. Overall, not one of Dusty's best years. On the the other hand the Dusty effect on players who are not loss causes (see Corey) still seems to be at work as the Cubs have had great offensive years from Lee, Ramirez and Barrett and good ones from Walker, Burnitz, Hairston and Neifi! (or as good as Neifi can have one.)

cubfaningermany wrote: "and Dusty still experimenting with the bullpen (see yesterday's game when he brought Mitre in rather than Wuertz or Williamson when Ohman got into trouble)" I'm not defending Dusty's use of the bullpen overall, but bringing in Mitre with two outs and men on first and second wasn't a terrible call - Mitre is a ground ball pitcher to the extreme and could have easily gotten a force out, and unfortunately he threw a VERY bad pitch. Wuertz might have been a good choice too, but Williamson can't be counted on in this kind of situation yet, despite his history - he had given up 3 homers in just over 10 innings this season before this game.

TRB Tribune revenues down 0.9% in August (37.69 ) Consolidated revs for the period were $428 mln, down 0.9% from last year's $432 mln. Publishing revs in August were $298 mln, 1.9% lower than last year's $303 mln. Advertising revs increased 0.6% to $234 mln. Total advertising inches were down 4.5%, while preprint pieces increased 0.9%. Here's an idea Tribsters...instead of working on your goal of a .500 record (snooze city) , put a winning ballclub on the field and you'll show some revenue growth in August.

Baseball America has an interview with Jeff Franceur of the Braves and he was asked who he's faced in the minors that throw better than some of the pitchers he's faced at the major league level. He named 3 pitchers: 1) Ricky Nolasco, raved about his slider 2) Rich Hill 3) Bobby Jenks, now with the WSox

Cubster- The Cubs are such a small part of the overall Tribune Company. Even if the Cubs won the WS their overall bottom line would barely move. That is aprt of the problem of a media conglomerate owning a sports team. Last year the Tribune Company had 5.726 BILLION in sales. Do you think the "ONLY" $300 million or so that the Cubs bring in is making a big dent in their bottom line?

hey, im a big murton fan, too...but lets at least realize where he's putting the bat on the ball. he's putting almost all of his good hits into RF. he did have a hell of a homer to LF a few games ago that pretty much solidified his place in the minds of many. in the 10th he put a ball into LF, though not exactly strong...he did a decent job on the pitch. i dont think anyone's had a problem with how murton handles lefties or how he handles stuff middle/outside.

The Cup is Half Full: I would like to THANK BARRY BONDS for not returning until after the Cubs took 3 out of 4 from the Giants!

The Cup is Half Full: We're now entering a period where teams will be competing exclusively within their division. The Cubs have moved into 5th place in the wildcard race behind Florida, Houston, Philadelphia, and Washington. With a win today, the Cubs will continue their plodding pace towards a projected 83-79 record. The wildcard winner is now projecting at 87-75. BUT both Houston and Florida, the leaders, have .500 winning percentages within their own division this year while Philadelphia and and Washington have losing records. If Houston and Florida continue their flat intra-division performance, the wildcard could be won (or tied) with 85 wins. So, believe it or not, the Cubs are still in the wildcard race and will likely remain there until they lose 5 games or somebody else wins 86.

11 vs stl/hou...ow. almost too stacked of a schedule vs. houston...not in tallent, but in amount of games the new scheduling crew gave chc/hou to close out the year. 7 games in 10 days vs. houston. hell of a way to end the season.

Houston is choking, not the Cubs. The Cubs are out of it, remember? Advantage---> Cubs.

"So, believe it or not, the Cubs are still in the wildcard race" Puff Puff Pass...

"So, believe it or not, the Cubs are still in the wildcard race" Puff Puff Pass...

Homer Blanco is getting better at the plate and has all season had a cannon for an arm and superb defensive skills. He should start the majority of games.

"You are missing the concept behind VORP. A player with a better VORP isn't always the better hitter. VORP is value over a replacement, at his position. A replacement pitcher and a replacement PH are different." I'm not so sure about that - I thought VORP was created with the idea of comparing players at different positions and in different years - it's all normalized. Different leagues and parks shouldn't matter either.

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  • Charlie 2 hours 53 min ago (view)

    Yeah, it seems like I lean more toward overvaluing Bryant than most commenters here. Also, I completely stopped following prospect lists once the Cubs were good again, so I'm out of the loop on Pache especially. I had imagined that the Cubs would be looking more for immediate major league value rather than a projectable prospect, but I guess if you really like Pache you don't mind waiting a couple years.

     

  • K Dub 9 hours 37 min ago (view)

    PHIL: Excellent breakdown, Phil. Thanks. 

    I'm sure you heard. QO value was set at $17.8 million the day after you made your post.

     

  • K Dub 9 hours 45 min ago (view)

    Pache, Wright, Muller and Riley feels light to you, Charlie? I respect your opinion, but I would jump at it. I highly doubt the Braves would do it, though. Were talking 2 years of Bryant at what could be 18 million and 28-30 million in his last year of arbitration. 

    The Cubs would be hurting their chances next year and building for 2021 in a deal like that, but that's rebuilding/retooling in one fell swoop. 

     

  • Arizona Phil 2 days 14 hours ago (view)

    CHARLIE: Austin Riley is actually a third-baseman but he had to play LF for the Braves in 2019 because he was blocked by Josh Donaldson, and Cristian Pache is considered to be the best defensive centerfielder in the minors and his bat has improved enough over the past year or two to where he is now rated in or just outside the top ten overall prospects in MLB.

    So a package that includes Riley and Pache and one of the Braves young MLB or MLB-ready SP would probably be more than enough to get the Cubs to bite.

     

  • Dolorous Jon Lester 2 days 16 hours ago (view)

    Max Fried or Bryse Wilson

     

  • crunch 2 days 17 hours ago (view)

    https://www.espn.com/espn/otl/story/_/id/27828247/...

    t.skaggs story keeps getting deeper.

    allegations the team knew about skagg's drug abuse (also his family).  teams are required to report this to MLB.

     

  • Charlie 2 days 19 hours ago (view)

    Except for the headline, the linked post reads more like a trade hypothetical than a trade rumor. I like the idea of looking at this package as a discussion point for expected return for Bryant. I would say it feels a little light to me. It's deep, with two decent outfield prospects with upside and two OK pitching prospects. But Riley doesn't help the team solve the CF problem right now, so he's either redundant to Bote or sort of a Schwarber replacement. Muller's inflated BB% at AA this year worries me a bit too.

     

  • Cubster 3 days 2 hours ago (view)

    I might have missed something and it's been talked about regarding a KB trade rumor from about 10-9-19. 

    https://apple.news/AJUMyEWodQ2GX1cj1gE4ENQ 

    Braves receive: 3B Kris Bryant 

     

  • crunch 4 days 16 hours ago (view)

    they get 3 guys and the cubs get 1 guy.  sounds like a slam dunk for the angels.  pencil trout in the cubs lineup.  he's got upside.

     

  • Jackstraw 4 days 18 hours ago (view)

    I'd hate to part with both Kemp and Chatwood, but if it will bring that Trout guy back, we could even throw in Almora.

     

  • crunch 4 days 21 hours ago (view)

    the ricketts got a brazillian dollar tax break...they need to trickle that down and flex on the entire league.

    we gonna get grandal, rendon, castellanos, g.cole, strasburg, ryu, a.chapman...maybe sign bumgarner and odorizzi to work the pen.

     

  • Arizona Phil 4 days 21 hours ago (view)

    CHARLIE: If the Cubs trade Quintana and his new club pays 100% of his 2020 salary his new club assumes 100% of his salary AAV liability, but if the Cubs agree to pay a portion of Quintana's 2020 salary as part of the trade, whatever portion of Quintana's 2020 salary that is paid by the Cubs would count against the Cubs 2020 AAV. 

     

  • Charlie 4 days 22 hours ago (view)

    PHIL: Thanks for that Boston context--I hadn't realized the trend there. If the Cubs did decide to pick up Quintana's option and then trade him (assuming the Cubs would not agree to pay part of the contract as part of the trade), do they have to do that by a certain date in order for Quintana's contract not to count against them for the CBT? I haven't been able to find any dates attached to the CBT in a quick internet search.

     

  • Arizona Phil 4 days 23 hours ago (view)

    My presumption in the Cubs declining Jose Quintana's 2020 club option as well as declining the club options on the veteran relievers who have one and non-tendering Addison Russell (and this also applies to Joe Maddon not returning as manager in 2020) is that after the monumental late-September collapse of 2019 on the heels of the 2018 Game #163 and Wild Card game defeats Ricketts will no longer accept the Cubs payroll going over the CBT threshold ($208M AAV in 2020) or extending a manager making $5M a year.   

     

  • crunch 5 days 4 hours ago (view)

    i actually like ATL the team...the fans and the 3+ hours of tommy hawk chawpin' non-stop is beyond annoying before even getting into how messed up it is they're still doing that in 2019.  it's all they do, just that 1 single thing...for hours...

    fans were so upset about not getting foam hatchets pre-game yesterday (that was the club's way to "dial it back") they were busy letting the "PC police" know they're here to chant and chop as loud as they could before the first pitch was even thrown.

    it took about 10 runs to shut them up.

     

  • Dolorous Jon Lester 5 days 18 hours ago (view)

    Damn. Atlanta was the only team in the NL I was hoping would advance. I don’t know what I was hoping in LA vs WAS series. Cataclysmic event? (Side note, I live in the DC area, what a dreadful group of fans. They deserve nothing good ever.)