Cubs 2007 Season In Review
THT, BP (with their PECOTA Projections) and Szymborski each employs a unique methodology, which I won’t even try to summarize or explain. Regardless, I thought it would be worthwhile to stack all three sets of Cub player predictions side by side, focusing on the eight likely starting position players plus Cliff Floyd, the five starting pitchers including Wade Miller, and the closer, Ryan Dempster.
The THT numbers come from their most excellent season preview book featuring the work of one Rob G.; the Baseball Prospectus numbers come from BP 2007; and I pulled the ZIPS Projections from the Baseball Think Factory site. (Thanks again, Dan, for your permission to use them here.)Also, to round out the field, I consulted my old friend, Phil, a very smart, very dedicated Cub fan who can calculate slugging percentages in his head and who, coincidentally, turned me on to The Cub Reporter what seems like a very long time ago. Phil employed no simulation models or complicated algorithms in coming up with his picks, but rather, a time-honored technique called educated guesswork that took about 15 minutes.
Without further ado, here are the picks. BTF stands for Szymborski’s projections at Baseball Think Factory, BP stands for Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA numbers, THT stands for The Hardball Times 2007 Baseball Preview, and MOFP signifies picks from My Old Friend Phil.
Michael Barrett |
BTF |
BP |
THT |
MOFP |
AVG. |
.285 |
.293 |
.281 |
.294 |
HR |
15 |
15 |
17 |
16 |
RBI |
63 |
64 |
71 |
57 |
Pretty even across the board. Obviously, these number will be way off after Lou reads Sports Illustrated and immediately follows their suggestion to bat Barrett lead off.
Derrek Lee |
BTF |
BP |
THT |
MOFP |
AVG. |
.299 |
.288 |
.290 |
.290 |
HR |
32 |
22 |
24 |
38 |
RBI |
97 |
68 |
75 |
105 |
Mark DeRosa |
BTF |
BP |
THT |
MOFP |
AVG. |
.265 |
.282 |
.261 |
.270 |
HR |
8 |
11 |
11 |
8 |
RBI |
49 |
50 |
56 |
45 |
Cesar Izturis |
BTF |
BP |
THT |
MOFP |
AVG. |
.272 |
.278 |
.274 |
.260 |
HR |
3 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
RBI |
43 |
29 |
34 |
30 |
A-Ram |
BTF |
BP |
THT |
MOFP |
AVG. |
.296 |
.299 |
.299 |
.300 |
HR |
35 |
35 |
34 |
35 |
RBI |
110 |
108 |
110 |
110 |
The numbers from BP and THT seem to reflect the fact that Lee is coming back from a significant injury. The Ramirez numbers are so close it’s spooky. I guess that’s what consistently excellent productivity will do for you.
Matt Murton |
BTF |
BP |
THT |
MOFP |
AVG. |
.299 |
.303 |
.283 |
.300 |
HR |
13 |
15 |
14 |
16 |
RBI |
61 |
62 |
67 |
75 |
Cliff Floyd |
BTF |
BP |
THT |
MOFP |
AVG. |
.261 |
.263 |
.270 |
.275 |
HR |
18 |
17 |
20 |
12 |
RBI |
61 |
59 |
70 |
50 |
The Fons |
BTF |
BP |
THT |
MOFP |
AVG. |
.265 |
.285 |
.272 |
.300 |
HR |
36 |
41 |
37 |
42 |
RBI |
86 |
115 |
111 |
90 |
SB |
27 |
32 |
33 |
30 |
Jacque Jones |
BTF |
BP |
THT |
MOFP |
AVG. |
.263 |
.281 |
.277 |
.275 |
HR |
24 |
17 |
24 |
25 |
RBI |
77 |
60 |
87 |
80 |
My Old Friend Phil is a little hotter on Murton than the others. Floyd’s numbers are bound to be way off from these projections, given his ongoing recovery from the foot problems. (BP actually worked up Floyd’s numbers before he even signed with the Cubs.)
The spread in Soriano’s numbers is noteworthy. Not sure if BP and THT consider Soriano’s likely spot in the batting order as part of their calculations, but Szymborski’s numbers seem to and I know My Old Friend Phil’s do...because he told me they do. Also interesting that no one foresees a repeat of Alfonso’s 40-40 season with the Nationals.
Lots of variance in Jones’s numbers, too, with BP’s low home run and RBI figures standing out.
On to the key pitchers. (Aside: no editorial comment implied by the fact that Zambrano's stat box is larger than anybody else. I just don't know how to deal with HTML tables.)
Zambrano |
BTF |
BP |
THT |
MOFP |
W |
14 |
13 |
14 |
17 |
L |
8 |
11 |
7 |
8 |
ERA |
3.46 |
3.66 |
2.77 |
3.33 |
Ted Lilly |
BTF |
BP |
THT |
MOFP |
W |
12 |
10 |
7 |
13 |
L |
12 |
10 |
8 |
13 |
ERA |
4.26 |
4.19 |
4.60 |
4.42 |
Jason Marquis |
BTF |
BP |
THT |
MOFP |
W |
11 |
7 |
8 |
13 |
L |
15 |
10 |
10 |
14 |
ERA |
4.95 |
5.14 |
4.68 |
4.60 |
Rich Hill |
BTF |
BP |
THT |
MOFP |
W |
12 |
9 |
8 |
12 |
L |
8 |
10 |
6 |
12 |
ERA |
3.65 |
4.28 |
3.94 |
4.20 |
Wade Miller |
BTF |
BP |
THT |
MOFP |
W |
3 |
5 |
2 |
4 |
L |
5 |
8 |
3 |
8 |
ERA |
4.97 |
5.15 |
4.69 |
5.30 |
Dempster |
BTF |
BP |
THT |
MOFP |
W |
5 |
3 |
4 |
2 |
L |
4 |
4 |
4 |
4 |
ERA |
4.09 |
4.14 |
4.22 |
4.00 |
Saves |
n/a |
19 |
18 |
32 |
Three of the four Zambrano projections look good; BP’s, not so much. This is reflected in their comments about Z in BP 2007, in which they suggest an increased walk rate and lower groundball/flyball ratio last season might be early signs of wear.
As for Lilly, apparently, baseball computers, like many of us, see him as a .500 pitcher. They also appear to have limited confidence in Larry Rothschild’s ability to work black magic with Marquis. Hill’s BTF projection (3.65 ERA) would be nice if works out that way, Miller better hope the computers and My Old Friend Phil were all drunk when they worked up his totals. And everyone seems to have the same picture of Ryan Dempster. And it’s not very pretty.
Teamwise, the THT Web site has the Cubs pegged for an 84-78 record and a second place finish, one game behind the Cardinals; the Baseball Prospectus Web site is not yet out with their NL Central team picks; and my Old Friend Phil says the Cubs’ “solid hitting (though OBP-deprived) plus mediocre pitching will leave them at 81-81,” with a reasonable possibility, however, that they could win up to 85 games and contend for the division.
That sounds like a pretty reasonable prognostication to me.
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