Cubs @ Tigers: Series Thread (Games 37-39)

The beleagured Cubs dropped both of their games in Cleveland by a single run each, nearly matching their opponents in feats of pitching and embarrassments of non-hitting. Kris Bryant joined the ranks of the unavailable due to illness in the middle of the first game. Javy texted his way out of a day off for the second game, but continues to battle lower back stiffness. The Cubs continue their road trip with a three-game series in Motor City. The 4th-place Tigers (13-24) could be more their speed. Detroit is last in the  majors in fWAR, 29th in wRC+, and last in FIP (albeit with the Cubs only a few spots ahead of them). Cubs batters will be lined up to face the Tigers' two best starters in this series, however. With the Cubs' record at 17-19, they would have to sweep to yo-yo back past the .500 mark. See below for the weekend's pitching matchups.

Game 37, Friday, May 14, 6:10 pm central

CHC: RHP Jake Arrieta (3-3, 4.31 ERA)

DET: LHP Tarik Skubal (0-5, 5.67 ERA)

As of my writing this, Arrieta is scheduled to return from an IL-stint due to a cut on his pitching hand. He last pitched on April 30, when he was battling that wound and pitching his way to his worst performance of the season so far. He went 3.1 innings and allowed 7 earned runs, getting pounded for 3 homeruns. Prior to that he'd been the Cubs steadiest starter.

Skubal debuted in 2020 and struggled with homeruns, allowing an upsetting 2.53 per nine innings pitched. Things have only gotten worse for him in his sophomore season. He's already been rocked for 10 homeruns in 27 innings. His previously solid strikeout to walk rate has also taken a turn for the worse this year, although one could hardly blame him if he's been scared out of the strike zone. His last start was mostly a success, even though he took the loss. He went five innings allowing two solo homeruns as the total scoring. He also struck out eight Twins while walking two and allowing four hits.

Game 38, Saturday, May 15, 3:10 pm central

CHC: RHP Trevor Williams (2-2, 5.81 ERA)

DET: RHP José Ureña (1-4, 3.60 ERA)

Williams rebounded from a terrible start by pitching 4 innings and allowing two earned runs against his former team. He struck out six in that start and walked two. In the prior start, he had been absolutely hammered by Cincinnati, but he managed to escape without a loss. Outside of that stinker, he's maintained an ERA in the mid-4s, roughly in line with his career averages.

Ureña has been a very pleasant surprise in his first season with the Tigers. He's significantly outpitching his peripherals, but a groundball rate over 50% tends to help with that. Aside from a bad first start in which he allowed 5 earned runs, he's been very steady. In the six starts since then, he's five times allowed two earned runs and once allowed only one earned run. He also had a string of four starts with seven innings pitched, which ended last time when he exited after 4.1. Cubs hitters saw him a few times during his tenure with the Marlins. Lefties Rizzo, Heyward, and Pederson are collectively 12 for 29 with two homeruns and five walks off of Ureña.

Game 39, Sunday, May 16, 12:10 pm central

CHC: RHP Kyle Hendricks (2-4, 6.23 ERA)

DET: LHP Matthew Boyd (2-3, 1.94 ERA)

Hendricks's journey to re-becoming Kyle Hendricks hit a yield sign last time out. He allowed six runs, four earned, in five innings pitched in Pittsburgh. Most of the nine hits he allowed, however, resulted from unfortunately placed soft conctact. It would make sense for Hendricks to chalk that one up to luck and walk into his eighth start with the confidence that he is once again Maddux-lite.

The 30-year-old Boyd is off to probably the best start of any season in his career. There are, however, some signs pointing toward significant regression. His strikeout rate is way down compared to the high-water mark he set in 2019, and he's maintaining an incredibly low homerun rate compared to his career average with no corresponding improvement in ground ball percentage. He is inducing a bit more weak contact, and he is using his changeup more than in any prior season. Only Matt Duffy and Ildemaro Vargas have faced him before, and neither has much to show for it.