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Baseball Prospectus
The Cubs Over/Under on Wins is Set at 71
The pre-season ritual of BP releasing their preliminary PECOTA numbers is upon us and as expected the Cubs are in the bottom 5 of the league. They've got them tabbed at 71 wins at the moment, 3rd worse in the league with only the Astros and Marlins being worse.
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Running a Yellow Light
Will Carroll, BP's staff writer focusing on team health had this very interesting recent quote, from his "Cubs Team Health Report":
Age is a poor predictor of injuries. Younger players get hurt more, but they heal more quickly. Older players get hurt less, a variant of the survivor effect, but heal more slowly.
The media that follows baseball does it's best to understand and decipher sports injuries. It's a tough job for them and much gets lost in translation of medical terminology. Injured athletes often don't understand what they are being told about an injury or they are just afraid to fess up that their ache might be a significant problem until it goes on for weeks or longer. Trainers and medical staff are often reluctant to discuss information on the grounds of patient-physician confidentiality and some teams are just less open to giving what information they have to the media. The information is important to us fans, since key players dealing with even minor injuries and not performing to their best ability can drastically affect how a team plays. In 2009, Alphonso Soriano apparently had a knee injury that he tried to work through until it was so obvious that he couldn't run, leading to his arthroscopic knee surgery in September. An injury that flies under the radar screen of the medical staff, as in Soriano's case was costly and not in a way you can put the usual "days lost" analysis to.
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Baseball Prospectus, Condensed For Your At-Work Reading
What the latest Baseball Prospectus annual has to say about the Cubs, minus all those pesky numbers and the obscure historical and literary allusions:
Ronny Cedeno
"...Cedeno's is a tried and true skill set–the same one that's earning Orlando Cabrera millions of dollars every season..."
Ryan Dempster
"...has experienced a steady decline in his groundball rates over the past three seasons...coupled with command that was never very good to begin with..."
Mark DeRosa
"If the Cubs bring in a Brian Roberts-type...the gains will be less than they might appear at first glance."
Kosuke Fukudome
"An inspired acquisition...a J.D. Drew/Bobby Abreu type of player..."
Recent comments
Arizona Phil (view)
Prior to the Cactus League game at Papago Park, three Cubs pitchers threw "live" BP on Field 1 at the Cubs Sloan Park complex, including RHRP Ethan Roberts (June 2022 TJS) and Cubs 2023 3rd round draft pick RHP Jaxon Wiggins (February 2023 TJS).
Wiggins last threw "live" BP three weeks ago before being shut down for a couple of weeks, and this was the first time Roberts has thrown to hitters in almost two years.
JAXON WIGGINS:
ONE INNING:
25 pitches (11 strikes)
no batted balls in play
two walks (Suriel and J. Diaz)
three strikeouts (Carico, Lubo, and Escobar - all three swinging)
six swing & miss
two fouls
three called strikes
14 called balls
one WP
ETHAN ROBERTS:
ONE INNING
15 pitches (7 strikes)
two batted balls in play (G-3 by Carico and L-9 by Suriel)
two walks (Lubo and Carico)
no strikeouts
no swing & miss
two fouls
three called strikes
eight called balls
one WP
Mat Peters was bumped by Justin Steele from his scheduled game work at Giants, so he threw two innings of "live" BP with Wiggins & Roberts.
MAT PETERS:
TWO INNINGS
44 pitches (23 strikes)
five batted balls in play (F-7, L-7, F-7, G-6, G-3)
three walks
two strikeouts (both Lubo and both looking)
six swing & miss
three fouls
nine called strikes
21 called balls
three WP
crunch (view)
wall stole a HR from busch...double. nice to see him destroy a curve ball.
upon further viewing, that might not have been a homer in too many parks...it had a lot of hang time, though.
CTSteve (view)
I’m at the game—woot!
If the streak breaks, it’s not my fault.
Cubster (view)
Brewers lose Wade Miley to Tommy John surgery.
crunch (view)
25 games played with a -85 run differential. insane.
Cubster (view)
White Sox DFA Bailey Horn. I'm thinking the Cubs would love to get him back although they probably won't have a decent chance of claiming him without another swap.
WSox also call up former Cub Rafael Ortega (and additionally Tommy Pham). They are hurting and having a gawd awful April.
Childersb3 (view)
White Sox DFA'd Bailey Horn.
He wasn't producing good results in Charlotte (AAA).
But Jed might bring him back with that open 40man spot. Then try the "sneak him thru waivers" gambit.
Cubster (view)
Oh my, now I will have nightmares of me sitting in the bowels of the Wrigley security detention cell.
Cubster (view)
One more thing...
One of the reasons I come to this site...
...in addition to Arizona Phil, who is, as we all know, a treasure trove of well-written fresh information, honest evaluation, and sneaky-subtle humor regarding the entire Cub organization...
... is CubbyBlue and Tim's fantastic and timely visual takes on the Cubs (to be fair, he does have a much broader Chicago-flavored brush well beyond the Cubs). Thanks for so many memorable images. I am fortunate to own (one of my prize possessions) a print that I framed (55/200) of "The Last Out" with KB's shit-eating grin as he fields the series winning out of the 2016 WS.
https://images.app.goo.gl/WvFQs6P5UvuhgVqS8
Tim, will you visit me if I do the text security thingy and description: Tim S? Or will I find myself in a Cub detention cell.
i.e. "or send a text message to 773-839-**** with the keyword "Friendly" and include your seat location and a description of your issue.
CubbyBlue (view)
Incredible moment. Huge part of the fun of working there is when something magic like that happens, and you get to interact with baseball fans.